MercadoLibre MELI

Nasdaq · Services-Business Services, Nec · $88.2B

$1,530.28−12.05%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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MELI Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $1,530.281D −12.05%3M −16.12%SMA20 $1,765.69SMA50 $1,816.45RSI(14) 32.0

1,530.28

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 32.0

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$88.2B

EV / True FCF7.2x

Revenue$28.9B +39.1%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$11.6B +86.3%

Rule of 4079.3%

ROIC93.6%

True FCF Yield13.1%

EPS, diluted$39.40 +4.5%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$88.2B

Enterprise Value$83.9B

EV / True FCF7.24

EV / FCF7.23

EV / Gross Profit6.52

EV / EBIT26.20

EV / Sales2.90

P / E (GAAP)44.17

P / FCF7.60

P / Oper. CF7.28

P / Book13.07

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield13.1%

FCF Yield13.2%

Owner Earn. Yield2.6%

Earnings Yield2.3%

Shareholder Yield0.0%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield0.04%

Dividend / sh$0.60

Payout Ratio0%

FCF / sh$228.95

EPS (diluted)$39.40

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4079.3%

ROIC93.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)482.8%

GP / Assets30.1%

ROE29.6%

ROA4.7%

Gross Margin44.5%

Oper. Margin11.1%

Net Margin6.9%

FCF Margin40.2%

True FCF Margin40.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion581%

Accrual Ratio−23.7%

SBC % of FCF0.2%

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate23%

Sales Growth Y/Y+39.1%

Sales 3Y CAGR+38.9%

EPS Growth Y/Y+4.5%

FCF Growth Y/Y+86.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR+70.5%

Share Change Y/Y0.0%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$28.9B

Gross Profit (FY)$12.9B

Oper. Income (FY)$3.2B

GAAP Net Income$2.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$11.6B

Cash & Equiv$13.5B

Total Debt$9.2B

Net Cash (Debt)$4.3B

Net Cash % MCap+4.9%

Debt / FCF (yrs)0.8y

Current Ratio1.1750.70M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−7.82%

Perf Month−18.29%

Perf Quarter−15.95%

Perf Half Y−18.17%

Perf YTD−18.17%

SMA 20 Dist−13.33%$1,765.69

SMA 50 Dist−15.75%$1,816.45

SMA 100 Dist−15.61%$1,813.26

Window High−23.74%$2,006.58

Window Low0.00%$1,530.28

RSI (14) · Vol32.060%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MELI revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$16.0B ($55.5 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$2.3B ($7.9 / $100)

Operating Expenses$7.4B ($25.6 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$1.2B ($4.2 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$2.0B ($6.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$2.0B (6.9% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$12.1B(41.9% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$509.0M(1.8% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$11.6B(40.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$27.5M(0.2% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$11.6B(40.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$7.1B	$10.8B	$15.1B	$20.8B	$28.9B	+39.1%	+42.2%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$4.1B	$5.6B	$7.5B	$11.2B	$16.0B	+43.2%	+40.9%
Gross Profit	$3.0B	$5.2B	$7.6B	$9.6B	$12.9B	+34.3%	+43.8%
Research & Development (R&D)	$590.0M	$1.1B	$1.8B	$1.9B	$2.3B	+17.3%	+40.0%
Total Operating Expenses	$2.6B	$4.1B	$5.4B	$6.9B	$9.7B	+39.0%	+39.3%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$441.0M	$1.1B	$2.2B	$2.6B	$3.2B	+21.7%	+64.1%
Interest Expense	—	—	—	—	$213,878	—	—
Income Tax Expense	$149.0M	$298.0M	$569.0M	$521.0M	$845.0M	+62.2%	+54.3%
GAAP Net Income	$83.0M	$482.0M	$987.0M	$1.9B	$2.0B	+4.5%	+121.5%
Diluted EPS	$1.67	$9.53	$19.46	$37.69	$39.40	+4.5%	+120.4%
Diluted Shares	49.8M	51.3M	51.0M	50.7M	50.7M	−0.0%	+0.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$3.6B	$3.4B	$3.8B	$4.7B	$13.5B	+188.1%	+38.8%
Inventory	$253.0M	$152.0M	$238.0M	$296.0M	$570.0M	+92.6%	+22.5%
Total Current Assets	$8.2B	$11.0B	$14.3B	$20.1B	$33.6B	+66.7%	+42.4%
Total Assets	$10.1B	$13.7B	$17.6B	$25.2B	$42.7B	+69.3%	+43.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$5.8B	$8.6B	$11.3B	$16.6B	$28.6B	+72.5%	+48.8%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$3.5B	$4.8B	$4.5B	$5.7B	$9.2B	+60.9%	+27.1%
Total Liabilities	$8.6B	$11.9B	$14.5B	$20.8B	$35.9B	+72.3%	+43.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$1.5B	$1.8B	$3.1B	$4.4B	$6.7B	+55.1%	+44.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$130.0M	$-1.4B	$-647.0M	$-1.0B	$4.3B	+527.6%	+140.4%
Invested Capital	$1.4B	$3.2B	$3.7B	$5.4B	$2.4B	−55.2%	+14.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$965.0M	$2.9B	$5.1B	$7.9B	$12.1B	+53.0%	+88.2%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$204.0M	$403.0M	$524.0M	$617.0M	$818.0M	+32.6%	+41.5%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	—	—	—	—	$27.5M	—	—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$573.0M	$454.0M	$509.0M	—	$509.0M	—	−2.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$392.0M	$2.5B	$4.6B	—	$11.6B	—	+133.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$392.0M	$2.5B	$4.6B	—	$11.6B	—	+133.1%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$486.0M	$148.0M	$356.0M	$1.0M	$1.0M	+0.0%	−78.7%
Dividends Paid	—	—	—	—	$6.6M	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MELI did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named MELI yet.

What happened · big days

20 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.93% from the one before, three times MELI’s median day (1.31%). On 2 of the 20, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.93%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayMELIWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 6, 2025−7.54%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
1Nov 6, 2025−7.54%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itACN −2.6 · V −0.9 · MA −0.0 · BABA +1.7
2 Nov 20, 2025−8.54%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
2Nov 20, 2025−8.54%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itBABA −3.5 · MA −0.5 · ACN −0.1 · V −0.1
3 Dec 10, 2025−5.00%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
3Dec 10, 2025−5.00%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itV −0.2 · MA +0.2 · ACN +1.0 · BABA +1.8
4 Jan 5, 2026+8.86%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
4Jan 5, 2026+8.86%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itV +2.1 · ACN +1.6 · MA +1.0 · BABA +0.3
5 Jan 22, 2026+4.66%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
5Jan 22, 2026+4.66%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itBABA +5.0 · ACN +1.6 · MA +1.0 · V +0.3
6 Feb 23, 2026−6.63%
Before our storiesgroup −5.1%, moved with MELI
6Feb 23, 2026−6.63%
Before our stories
−5.1% moved with MELIACN −6.6 · MA −5.8 · V −4.5 · BABA −1.1
7 Feb 25, 2026−8.05%
Resultsgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
7Feb 25, 2026−8.05%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 24 results filing
+0.7% did not move with itACN −2.7 · BABA −0.5 · V +1.9 · MA +2.3
8 Mar 12, 2026−4.88%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
8Mar 12, 2026−4.88%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itACN −2.7 · BABA −1.5 · MA −1.3 · V −0.8
9 Mar 31, 2026+6.78%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
9Mar 31, 2026+6.78%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itBABA +2.9 · MA +1.1 · V +0.9 · ACN +0.4
10 May 8, 2026−12.70%
Resultsgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
10May 8, 2026−12.70%
ResultsFirst close after the May 7 results filing
−0.7% did not move with itMA −1.1 · V −0.8 · BABA −0.7 · ACN +0.1
11 May 11, 2026−4.61%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
11May 11, 2026−4.61%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itACN −4.5 · BABA −2.0 · MA +0.5 · V +1.6
12 Jun 24, 2026+4.79%
Nothing on MELIgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
12Jun 24, 2026+4.79%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itACN +1.7 · MA +1.3 · V +1.1 · BABA −2.7
13 Aug 6, 2026−4.81%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
13Aug 6, 2026−4.81%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 5 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itBABA −1.3 · ACN +0.2 · V +0.5 · MA +1.0
14 Aug 11, 2026+6.34%
Nothing on MELIgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
14Aug 11, 2026+6.34%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itACN +0.9 · V +0.4 · MA −0.3 · BABA −3.4
15 Aug 12, 2026−5.76%
Nothing on MELIgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
15Aug 12, 2026−5.76%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.6% did not move with itBABA −2.1 · V −0.9 · MA −0.3 · ACN +0.2
16 Aug 19, 2026+7.28%
Nothing on MELIgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
16Aug 19, 2026+7.28%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.5% did not move with itACN +5.9 · BABA +0.6 · V +0.3 · MA −0.1
17 Oct 5, 2026+9.67%
Nothing on MELIgroup +2.4%, did not move with it
17Oct 5, 2026+9.67%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.4% did not move with itBABA +4.7 · V +2.5 · MA +2.2 · ACN −1.9
18 Oct 26, 2026−7.81%
Nothing on MELIgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
18Oct 26, 2026−7.81%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.9% did not move with itMA −1.6 · V −0.9 · ACN −0.9 · BABA +0.6
19 Nov 4, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on MELIgroup +3.9%, moved with MELI
19Nov 4, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on MELINo MELI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.9% moved with MELIBABA +4.9 · MA +3.9 · V +3.8 · ACN +3.8
20 Nov 5, 2026−12.05%
Results
20Nov 5, 2026−12.05%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
No group that day

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of V, MA, BABA and ACN that day, the largest companies in MELI’s SEC industry; “moved with MELI” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MELI reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 29, 2025

day 1+2.82%day 6−7.30%

Reported Feb 24, 2026

day 1−8.05%day 6−7.99%

Reported May 7, 2026

day 1−12.70%day 6−17.28%

Reported Aug 5, 2026

day 1−4.81%day 6−4.91%

Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 4 report: −12.05%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is MELI’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

MELI against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

MELI is down 27.4% in a year. Visa is up 25.8%, Mastercard 18.8% and Accenture 7.5%. Of these four, only Alibaba Group (−36.7%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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MELI −27.4%. Visa +25.8%, Mastercard +18.8%, Accenture +7.5%, Alibaba Group −36.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MELI’s SEC industry (Services-Business Services, Nec) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

V	Visa	$744.0B	−3.20%
MA	Mastercard	$609.4B	−2.49%
BABA	Alibaba Group	$253.2B	+2.64%
ACN	Accenture	$167.1B	+0.34%
UBER	Uber	$142.7B	−1.56%
PDD	PDD Holdings	$121.8B	+2.19%
DASH	DoorDash	$87.3B	−9.40%
EBAY	Ebay	$55.7B	−1.44%