PDD Holdings PDD

Nasdaq · Services-Business Services, Nec · $121.8B

$83.95+2.19%Nov 5 close · Databento

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PDD Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $83.951D +2.19%3M −9.73%SMA20 $80.44SMA50 $79.86RSI(14) 61.5

83.95

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 61.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

2 stories have a settled next close so far (2 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$121.8B

EV / True FCF6.8x

Revenue$61.8B +14.5%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$14.2B +103.0%

Rule of 4039.3%

ROIC33.0%

True FCF Yield11.6%

EPS, diluted$2.36 −9.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$121.8B

Enterprise Value$95.6B

EV / True FCF6.76

EV / FCF6.26

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT7.18

EV / Sales1.55

P / E (GAAP)8.70

P / FCF7.97

P / Oper. CF7.96

P / Book2.06

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield11.6%

FCF Yield12.6%

Owner Earn. Yield10.6%

Earnings Yield11.5%

Shareholder Yield—

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$2.36

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4039.3%

ROIC33.0%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)46.3%

GP / Assets—

ROE23.7%

ROA15.5%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin21.6%

Net Margin22.7%

FCF Margin24.8%

True FCF Margin22.9%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion109%

Accrual Ratio−1.4%

SBC % of FCF7.4%

SBC % of Rev1.8%

Reinvest. Rate16%

Sales Growth Y/Y+14.5%

Sales 3Y CAGR+48.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y−9.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y+103.0%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+0.2%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$61.8B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$13.3B

GAAP Net Income$14.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$14.2B

Cash & Equiv$26.1B

Total Debt—

Net Cash (Debt)$26.1B

Net Cash % MCap+21.5%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio2.43

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+5.89%

Perf Month+6.94%

Perf Quarter−8.51%

Perf Half Y−17.30%

Perf YTD−19.43%

SMA 20 Dist+4.36%$80.44

SMA 50 Dist+5.13%$79.86

SMA 100 Dist+1.95%$82.34

Window High−19.43%$104.20

Window Low+14.53%$73.30

RSI (14) · Vol61.531%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of PDD revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$27.0B ($43.7 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$2.4B ($3.8 / $100)

Operating Expenses$19.1B ($30.9 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$14.0B ($21.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$14.0B (22.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$15.3B(24.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$6.6M(0.0% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$15.3B(24.8% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$1.1B(7.4% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$14.2B(22.9% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$14.7B	$18.9B	$34.9B	$54.0B	$61.8B	+14.5%	+43.1%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$5.0B	$4.6B	$12.9B	$21.1B	$27.0B	+28.0%	+52.6%
Gross Profit	$9.8B	$14.4B	—	—	—	—	+47.1%
Research & Development (R&D)	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$2.4B	+36.0%	+13.7%
Total Operating Expenses	$8.7B	$10.0B	$13.7B	$18.0B	$21.4B	+19.0%	+25.4%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$1.1B	$4.4B	$8.3B	$14.9B	$13.3B	−10.4%	+87.3%
Interest Expense	$193.2M	$7.5M	$6.2M	—	$6.2M	—	−57.7%
Income Tax Expense	$303.4M	$685.2M	$1.7B	$2.8B	$3.1B	+11.9%	+78.9%
GAAP Net Income	$1.2B	$4.6B	$8.5B	$15.4B	$14.0B	−9.2%	+84.1%
Diluted EPS	$0.21	$0.79	$1.45	$2.60	$2.36	−9.2%	+83.1%
Diluted Shares	5.71B	5.8M	5.84B	5.92B	5.93B	+0.2%	+0.9%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$9.6B	$13.0B	$16.7B	$18.0B	$26.1B	+44.8%	+28.5%
Inventory	$2.2M	$2.2M	$2.2M	$2.2M	$2.2M	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Current Assets	$25.3B	$31.4B	$41.5B	$56.9B	$74.2B	+30.3%	+30.9%
Total Assets	$28.4B	$34.4B	$49.0B	$69.2B	$90.1B	+30.2%	+33.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$14.7B	$16.9B	$21.5B	$25.8B	$30.6B	+18.4%	+20.1%
Total Liabilities	$16.6B	$17.3B	$22.7B	$26.3B	$31.0B	+18.0%	+16.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$11.8B	$17.1B	$26.4B	$42.9B	$59.1B	+37.7%	+49.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$9.6B	$13.0B	$16.7B	$18.0B	$26.1B	+44.8%	+28.5%
Invested Capital	$2.2B	$4.1B	$9.7B	$24.9B	$33.0B	+32.6%	+96.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$4.5B	$7.0B	$13.3B	$16.7B	$15.3B	−8.5%	+35.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$234.7M	$322.5M	$110.7M	$97.1M	$86.0M	−11.4%	−22.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$749.3M	$1.1B	$997.0M	$1.4B	$1.1B	−16.2%	+10.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	—	—	—	—	$6.6M	—	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	—	—	—	—	$15.3B	—	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	—	—	—	—	$14.2B	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what PDD did at the next close after each story

Aug 25

PDD Holdings’ net profit falls 12% despite revenue growth in Q2

Yahoo Finance · 5:24 AM ET

+0.78%

Aug 24

Temu owner’s shares rise as results beat estimates despite tumbling profits

MarketWatch · 8:18 AM ET

−1.48%

What happened · big days

22 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.59% from the one before, three times PDD’s median day (1.20%). On 4 of the 22, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.59%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayPDDWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 18, 2025−7.33%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 18, 2025−7.33%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itMA −1.7 · V −1.4 · ACN −0.6 · BABA +1.3
2 Nov 20, 2025−4.31%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
2Nov 20, 2025−4.31%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itBABA −3.5 · MA −0.5 · ACN −0.1 · V −0.1
3 Dec 17, 2025−3.69%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
3Dec 17, 2025−3.69%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itBABA −1.5 · V −0.2 · MA −0.1 · ACN +0.6
4 Jan 13, 2026−5.40%
Before our storiesgroup −2.6%, did not move with it
4Jan 13, 2026−5.40%
Before our stories
−2.6% did not move with itV −4.5 · MA −3.8 · ACN −1.5 · BABA +0.4
5 Jan 14, 2026−3.98%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
5Jan 14, 2026−3.98%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itMA +0.3 · V +0.4 · BABA +1.7 · ACN +4.2
6 Jan 28, 2026−3.84%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
6Jan 28, 2026−3.84%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itACN −1.9 · MA +0.2 · V +0.5 · BABA +1.7
7 Feb 6, 2026+3.65%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, moved with PDD
7Feb 6, 2026+3.65%
Before our stories
+1.9% moved with PDDBABA +3.0 · ACN +3.0 · V +0.7 · MA −0.6
8 Feb 12, 2026−4.16%
Before our storiesgroup −2.6%, moved with PDD
8Feb 12, 2026−4.16%
Before our stories
−2.6% moved with PDDACN −3.6 · BABA −3.4 · MA −1.9 · V −1.5
9 Mar 25, 2026+4.61%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
9Mar 25, 2026+4.61%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itBABA +3.5 · MA +0.8 · V +0.4 · ACN −0.7
10 Mar 31, 2026+3.82%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
10Mar 31, 2026+3.82%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itBABA +2.9 · MA +1.1 · V +0.9 · ACN +0.4
11 Apr 8, 2026+4.23%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
11Apr 8, 2026+4.23%
Before our stories
+1.9% did not move with itBABA +4.7 · V +2.1 · MA +1.8 · ACN −1.8
12 Apr 21, 2026−5.00%
Before our storiesgroup −1.1%, did not move with it
12Apr 21, 2026−5.00%
Before our stories
−1.1% did not move with itBABA −3.4 · V −1.3 · MA −1.0 · ACN −0.3
13 May 6, 2026+5.75%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
13May 6, 2026+5.75%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itBABA +6.9 · V −1.0 · MA −1.0 · ACN −2.5
14 May 13, 2026+4.04%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
14May 13, 2026+4.04%
Before our stories
−1.9% did not move with itBABA +8.2 · MA −1.8 · V −1.9 · ACN −6.0
15 May 14, 2026−4.04%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
15May 14, 2026−4.04%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itBABA −3.2 · MA −0.1 · V +0.7 · ACN +2.7
16 May 27, 2026−10.38%
Before our storiesgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
16May 27, 2026−10.38%
Before our stories
−0.0% did not move with itBABA −1.3 · ACN −0.4 · V +0.3 · MA +0.4
17 May 28, 2026−4.13%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
17May 28, 2026−4.13%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itBABA −1.3 · V −0.8 · MA −0.3 · ACN +1.2
18 Jun 26, 2026+4.43%
Nothing on PDDgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
18Jun 26, 2026+4.43%
Nothing on PDDNo PDD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% did not move with itACN +2.5 · MA +2.1 · V +1.7 · BABA −0.3
19 Jul 1, 2026+8.18%
Nothing on PDDgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
19Jul 1, 2026+8.18%
Nothing on PDDNo PDD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% did not move with itACN +5.4 · V +2.3 · BABA +2.1 · MA +1.7
20 Aug 13, 2026−5.46%
Nothing on PDDgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
20Aug 13, 2026−5.46%
Nothing on PDDNo PDD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.2% did not move with itBABA −2.4 · ACN −0.9 · MA +1.3 · V +1.7
21 Oct 9, 2026+3.95%
Nothing on PDDgroup +2.6%, moved with PDD
21Oct 9, 2026+3.95%
Nothing on PDDNo PDD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.6% moved with PDDBABA +5.4 · V +2.8 · MA +2.5 · ACN +0.3
22 Nov 2, 2026+3.91%
Nothing on PDDgroup +3.0%, moved with PDD
22Nov 2, 2026+3.91%
Nothing on PDDNo PDD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.0% moved with PDDBABA +3.5 · MA +3.1 · V +2.9 · ACN +1.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of V, MA, BABA and ACN that day, the largest companies in PDD’s SEC industry; “moved with PDD” means the same direction and at least half the size.

Same industry

PDD against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

PDD is down 39.5% in a year. Visa is up 25.8%, Mastercard 18.8%, Accenture 7.5% and Alibaba Group is down 36.7%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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PDD −39.5%. Visa +25.8%, Mastercard +18.8%, Accenture +7.5%, Alibaba Group −36.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in PDD’s SEC industry (Services-Business Services, Nec) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

V	Visa	$744.0B	−3.20%
MA	Mastercard	$609.4B	−2.49%
BABA	Alibaba Group	$253.2B	+2.64%
ACN	Accenture	$167.1B	+0.34%
UBER	Uber	$142.7B	−1.56%
MELI	Mercadolibre	$88.2B	−12.05%
DASH	DoorDash	$87.3B	−9.40%
EBAY	Ebay	$55.7B	−1.44%