BNY Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $147.491D −3.42%3M −7.49%SMA20 $145.49SMA50 $150.56RSI(14) 49.7
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$103.6B
EV / True FCF24.6x
Revenue$20.1B +7.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.2B +762.0%
Rule of 4033.6%
True FCF Yield5.0%
EPS, diluted$7.40 +27.6%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$103.6B
Enterprise Value$127.5B
EV / True FCF24.64
EV / FCF24.63
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales6.35
P / E (GAAP)18.67
P / FCF20.02
P / Oper. CF15.40
P / Book2.32
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield5.0%
FCF Yield5.0%
Owner Earn. Yield3.9%
Earnings Yield5.4%
Shareholder Yield+4.8%
Buyback Yield3.4%
Dividend Yield1.36%
Dividend / sh$2.00
Payout Ratio26%
FCF / sh$7.69
EPS (diluted)$7.40
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4033.6%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)7.5%
GP / Assets—
ROE12.4%
ROA1.2%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin—
Net Margin27.6%
FCF Margin25.8%
True FCF Margin25.8%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion93%
Accrual Ratio−0.3%
SBC % of FCF0.0%
SBC % of Rev0.0%
Reinvest. Rate23%
Sales Growth Y/Y+7.8%
Sales 3Y CAGR+6.7%
EPS Growth Y/Y+27.6%
FCF Growth Y/Y+762.0%
FCF 3Y CAGR−27.7%
Share Change Y/Y−4.2%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$20.1B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)—
GAAP Net Income$5.5B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.2B
Cash & Equiv$8.0B
Total Debt$31.9B
Net Cash (Debt)$-23.9B
Net Cash % MCap−23.1%
Debt / FCF (yrs)6.2y
Current Ratio—672.90M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−1.26%
Perf Month+3.34%
Perf Quarter−6.42%
Perf Half Y—
Perf YTD+6.12%
SMA 20 Dist+1.37%$145.49
SMA 50 Dist−2.04%$150.56
SMA 100 Dist−3.45%$152.76
Window High−10.53%$164.84
Window Low+7.16%$137.64
RSI (14) · Vol49.724%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of BNY revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$15.9B
$16.5B
$17.7B
$18.6B
$20.1B
+7.8%
+6.0%
Interest Expense
$227.0M
$3.6B
$16.3B
—
$16.3B
—
+191.1%
Income Tax Expense
$877.0M
$937.0M
$979.0M
$1.3B
$1.5B
+13.0%
+13.9%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$3.8B
$2.6B
$3.3B
$4.5B
$5.5B
+22.5%
+10.2%
Diluted EPS ▸
$4.14
$2.88
$3.89
$5.80
$7.40
+27.6%
+15.6%
Diluted Shares
856.4M
814.8M
787.8M
748.1M
716.7M
−4.2%
−4.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$9.9B
$11.5B
$8.3B
$5.6B
$8.0B
+42.7%
−5.3%
Total Assets
$444.4B
$405.6B
$409.9B
$416.1B
$472.3B
+13.5%
+1.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$25.9B
$30.5B
$31.3B
$30.9B
$31.9B
+3.3%
+5.3%
Total Liabilities
$401.0B
$364.9B
$369.0B
$374.3B
$427.5B
+14.2%
+1.6%
Stockholders' Equity
$43.1B
$40.6B
$40.8B
$41.7B
$44.7B
+7.3%
+0.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-16.0B
$-18.9B
$-22.9B
$-25.3B
$-23.9B
+5.4%
—
Invested Capital
$59.2B
$59.5B
$63.7B
$67.0B
$68.6B
+2.5%
+3.8%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$2.8B
$15.1B
$5.9B
$687.0M
$6.7B
+879.6%
+24.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
—
—
$0
$0
$1.0M
—
—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$1.2B
$1.3B
$1.2B
$1.5B
$1.6B
+5.7%
+6.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$1.6B
$13.7B
$4.7B
$-782.0M
$5.2B
+762.0%
+33.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$1.6B
$13.7B
$4.7B
$-782.0M
$5.2B
+761.9%
+33.6%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$4.6B
$124.0M
$2.6B
$3.1B
$3.5B
+15.4%
−6.2%
Dividends Paid
$1.1B
$1.2B
$1.3B
$1.3B
$1.4B
+7.3%
+6.5%
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
23 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 1.71% from the one before, three times BNY’s median day (0.57%). On 14 of the 23, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±1.71%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayBNYWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 May 21, 2026+1262.55%
Before our storiesgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
1May 21, 2026+1262.55%
Before our stories
+0.7% did not move with itMTB +0.9 · NTRS +0.7 · FITB +0.6 · STT −0.3
2 Jun 1, 2026+2.27%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
2Jun 1, 2026+2.27%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itSTT +2.7 · NTRS +1.8 · MTB −2.1 · FITB −2.7
3 Jun 4, 2026+2.45%
Before our storiesgroup +3.3%, moved with BNY
3Jun 4, 2026+2.45%
Before our stories
+3.3% moved with BNYFITB +4.7 · MTB +3.6 · STT +3.1 · NTRS +2.7
4 Jun 10, 2026−2.44%
Nothing on BNYgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
4Jun 10, 2026−2.44%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.8% did not move with itNTRS −2.6 · STT −0.9 · MTB −0.7 · FITB −0.1
5 Jun 22, 2026+1.96%
Nothing on BNYgroup +1.8%, moved with BNY
5Jun 22, 2026+1.96%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% moved with BNYSTT +3.2 · NTRS +2.0 · FITB +1.6 · MTB +1.2
6 Jun 24, 2026−2.53%
Nothing on BNYgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
6Jun 24, 2026−2.53%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.4% did not move with itSTT −2.8 · NTRS −1.3 · FITB +0.5 · MTB +0.9
7 Jul 6, 2026+2.28%
Nothing on BNYgroup +2.0%, moved with BNY
7Jul 6, 2026+2.28%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% moved with BNYSTT +3.1 · NTRS +2.6 · FITB +1.3 · MTB +0.4
8 Jul 7, 2026+1.97%
Nothing on BNYgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
8Jul 7, 2026+1.97%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itSTT +2.3 · NTRS +0.1 · FITB +0.1 · MTB −0.1
9 Jul 8, 2026−1.81%
Nothing on BNYgroup −1.8%, moved with BNY
9Jul 8, 2026−1.81%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% moved with BNYFITB −3.7 · MTB −2.1 · STT −1.4 · NTRS −0.8
10 Jul 14, 2026+2.14%
Nothing on BNYgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
10Jul 14, 2026+2.14%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itSTT +3.1 · NTRS +1.4 · FITB −0.2 · MTB −0.3
11 Jul 15, 2026+5.08%
Resultsgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
11Jul 15, 2026+5.08%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 15 results filing
+2.0% did not move with itMTB +2.8 · NTRS +2.4 · STT +1.6 · FITB +1.6
12 Jul 17, 2026−2.32%
Nothing on BNYgroup −2.0%, moved with BNY
12Jul 17, 2026−2.32%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.0% moved with BNYFITB −2.3 · NTRS −2.0 · MTB −1.9 · STT −1.7
13 Jul 29, 2026−2.55%
Nothing on BNYgroup −1.9%, moved with BNY
13Jul 29, 2026−2.55%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% moved with BNYSTT −3.6 · FITB −2.1 · NTRS −1.8 · MTB −0.9
14 Jul 30, 2026+2.35%
Nothing on BNYgroup +1.4%, moved with BNY
14Jul 30, 2026+2.35%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.4% moved with BNYSTT +3.9 · NTRS +2.7 · FITB +0.0 · MTB −1.3
15 Aug 19, 2026−2.54%
Nothing on BNYgroup −3.0%, moved with BNY
15Aug 19, 2026−2.54%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.0% moved with BNYFITB −4.1 · STT −3.2 · MTB −2.8 · NTRS −2.7
16 Aug 24, 2026+2.30%
Nothing on BNYgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
16Aug 24, 2026+2.30%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itSTT +2.0 · NTRS +1.5 · MTB +0.6 · FITB +0.1
17 Sep 14, 2026−3.07%
Nothing on BNYgroup −1.8%, moved with BNY
17Sep 14, 2026−3.07%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% moved with BNYNTRS −4.0 · STT −2.7 · MTB −0.8 · FITB −0.6
18 Sep 15, 2026−1.90%
Nothing on BNYgroup −1.3%, moved with BNY
18Sep 15, 2026−1.90%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.3% moved with BNYNTRS −1.6 · STT −1.6 · MTB −1.0 · FITB +0.5
19 Sep 22, 2026−2.42%
Nothing on BNYgroup −1.9%, moved with BNY
19Sep 22, 2026−2.42%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% moved with BNYNTRS −3.1 · STT −2.3 · MTB −1.6 · FITB −1.0
20 Oct 14, 2026−2.40%
Nothing on BNYgroup −2.0%, moved with BNY
20Oct 14, 2026−2.40%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.0% moved with BNYSTT −4.1 · NTRS −2.9 · FITB −1.1 · MTB −0.9
21 Oct 15, 2026+3.23%
Resultsgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
21Oct 15, 2026+3.23%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 15 results filing
+1.3% did not move with itNTRS +1.7 · FITB +1.4 · MTB +1.2 · STT +0.4
22 Nov 4, 2026+2.28%
Nothing on BNYgroup +1.8%, moved with BNY
22Nov 4, 2026+2.28%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% moved with BNYNTRS +3.1 · STT +2.2 · FITB +1.5 · MTB +1.2
23 Nov 5, 2026−3.42%
Nothing on BNYgroup −3.0%, moved with BNY
23Nov 5, 2026−3.42%
Nothing on BNYNo BNY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.0% moved with BNYSTT −4.7 · NTRS −3.7 · FITB −2.3 · MTB −2.2
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of FITB, STT, NTRS and MTB that day, the largest companies in BNY’s SEC industry; “moved with BNY” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). BNY reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Oct 16, 2025
day 1+0.93%day 6+0.83%
Reported Jan 13, 2026
day 1+0.59%day 6−0.39%
Reported Jul 15, 2026
day 1+5.08%day 6+3.81%
Reported Oct 15, 2026
day 1+3.23%day 6+5.58%
Next report: expected mid JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 15 report: +7.16%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is BNY’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
BNY against four bank peers, a year at 100
BNY is up 14.5 times in a year. All four did less: State Street (+39.7%), Northern Trust (+31.9%), Fifth Third Bancorp (+24.7%) and M&T Bank (+18.3%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 14.5-fold rise and a 18.3% rise both read honestly.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in BNY’s SEC industry (State Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.