Citizens Financial CFG

NYSE · State Commercial Banks · $27.8B

$63.83−3.14%Nov 5 close · Databento

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CFG Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $63.831D −3.14%3M −12.16%SMA20 $64.35SMA50 $66.01RSI(14) 44.6

63.83

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 44.6

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$27.8B

EV / True FCF13.4x

Revenue$8.2B +5.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.0B +2.3%

Rule of 4030.9%

True FCF Yield7.1%

EPS, diluted$3.86 +27.4%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$27.8B

Enterprise Value$26.3B

EV / True FCF13.36

EV / FCF12.59

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales3.18

P / E (GAAP)15.16

P / FCF13.31

P / Oper. CF12.55

P / Book1.05

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield7.1%

FCF Yield7.5%

Owner Earn. Yield6.2%

Earnings Yield6.6%

Shareholder Yield+4.4%

Buyback Yield2.2%

Dividend Yield2.69%

Dividend / sh$1.72

Payout Ratio41%

FCF / sh$4.97

EPS (diluted)$3.86

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4030.9%

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)8.4%

GP / Assets—

ROE7.0%

ROA0.8%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin22.2%

FCF Margin25.3%

True FCF Margin23.8%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion114%

Accrual Ratio−0.2%

SBC % of FCF5.8%

SBC % of Rev1.5%

Reinvest. Rate6%

Sales Growth Y/Y+5.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR+0.9%

EPS Growth Y/Y+27.4%

FCF Growth Y/Y+2.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−3.7%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$8.2B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$1.8B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.0B

Cash & Equiv$12.7B

Total Debt$11.2B

Net Cash (Debt)$1.5B

Net Cash % MCap+5.4%

Debt / FCF (yrs)5.4y

Current Ratio—419.20M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−2.93%

Perf Month+1.21%

Perf Quarter−12.16%

Perf Half Y−0.61%

Perf YTD−2.93%

SMA 20 Dist−0.80%$64.35

SMA 50 Dist−3.30%$66.01

SMA 100 Dist−7.01%$68.64

Window High−14.59%$74.73

Window Low+5.63%$60.43

RSI (14) · Vol44.624%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of CFG revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$6.4B ($77.8 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.8B ($22.2 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.8B (22.2% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$2.2B(26.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$126.0M(1.5% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$2.1B(25.3% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$120.0M(5.8% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$2.0B(23.8% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$6.6B	$8.0B	$8.2B	$7.8B	$8.2B	+5.6%	+5.5%
Interest Expense	$339.0M	$1.0B	$4.0B	—	$4.0B	—	+84.9%
Income Tax Expense	$658.0M	$582.0M	$422.0M	$379.0M	$497.0M	+31.1%	−6.8%
GAAP Net Income	$2.3B	$2.1B	$1.6B	$1.5B	$1.8B	+21.3%	−5.7%
Diluted EPS	$5.16	$4.10	$3.13	$3.03	$3.86	+27.4%	−7.0%
Diluted Shares	427.4M	477.8M	476.7M	453.5M	436.9M	−3.7%	+0.5%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$9.2B	$10.5B	$11.6B	$10.6B	$12.7B	+20.1%	+8.6%
Total Assets	$188.4B	$226.7B	$222.0B	$217.5B	$226.4B	+4.1%	+4.7%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$6.9B	$15.9B	$13.5B	$12.4B	$11.2B	−9.5%	+12.8%
Total Liabilities	$165.0B	$203.0B	$197.6B	$193.3B	$200.0B	+3.5%	+4.9%
Stockholders' Equity	$23.4B	$23.7B	$24.3B	$24.3B	$26.3B	+8.5%	+3.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$2.2B	$-5.3B	$-1.8B	$-1.8B	$1.5B	+183.5%	−9.4%
Invested Capital	$21.2B	$29.0B	$26.2B	$26.1B	$24.8B	−4.8%	+4.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$2.3B	$4.1B	$3.0B	$2.0B	$2.2B	+10.5%	−0.7%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$98.0M	$107.0M	$115.0M	$132.0M	$130.0M	−1.5%	+7.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$59.0M	$84.0M	$87.0M	$97.0M	$120.0M	+23.7%	+19.4%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	—	—	—	—	$126.0M	—	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	—	—	—	—	$2.1B	—	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	—	—	—	—	$2.0B	—	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$295.0M	$153.0M	$906.0M	$1.1B	$600.0M	−42.9%	+19.4%
Dividends Paid	$670.0M	$779.0M	$808.0M	$769.0M	$755.0M	−1.8%	+3.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what CFG did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named CFG yet.

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.84% from the one before, three times CFG’s median day (0.95%). On 10 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.84%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCFGWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 17, 2025−3.83%
Before our storiesgroup −3.4%, moved with CFG
1Nov 17, 2025−3.83%
Before our stories
−3.4% moved with CFGNTRS −3.7 · STT −3.4 · FITB −3.4 · BNY +0.8
2 Nov 21, 2025+3.16%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
2Nov 21, 2025+3.16%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itFITB +2.8 · NTRS +1.1 · STT +0.9 · BNY +0.1
3 Dec 10, 2025+4.50%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, moved with CFG
3Dec 10, 2025+4.50%
Before our stories
+2.7% moved with CFGFITB +5.3 · NTRS +3.1 · STT +2.2 · BNY −0.2
4 Jan 21, 2026+7.11%
Resultsgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
4Jan 21, 2026+7.11%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 21 results filing
+1.0% did not move with itFITB +5.5 · STT +1.3 · NTRS +0.8 · BNY 0.0
5 Feb 2, 2026+2.99%
Before our storiesgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
5Feb 2, 2026+2.99%
Before our stories
+1.4% did not move with itFITB +3.4 · NTRS +1.5 · STT +1.3 · BNY −0.2
6 Feb 12, 2026−3.11%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, moved with CFG
6Feb 12, 2026−3.11%
Before our stories
−2.1% moved with CFGSTT −4.0 · FITB −2.1 · NTRS −1.6
7 Feb 23, 2026−4.29%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, moved with CFG
7Feb 23, 2026−4.29%
Before our stories
−3.0% moved with CFGFITB −5.4 · NTRS −3.0 · STT −2.2
8 Feb 27, 2026−5.75%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, moved with CFG
8Feb 27, 2026−5.75%
Before our stories
−3.0% moved with CFGFITB −4.8 · NTRS −3.0 · STT −2.8
9 Mar 31, 2026+4.39%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with CFG
9Mar 31, 2026+4.39%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with CFGFITB +4.0 · STT +2.5 · NTRS +2.5
10 Apr 8, 2026+3.54%
Before our storiesgroup +3.8%, moved with CFG
10Apr 8, 2026+3.54%
Before our stories
+3.8% moved with CFGNTRS +4.2 · STT +3.8 · FITB +3.2
11 Jun 4, 2026+3.85%
Before our storiesgroup +2.9%, moved with CFG
11Jun 4, 2026+3.85%
Before our stories
+2.9% moved with CFGFITB +4.7 · STT +3.1 · NTRS +2.7 · BNY +2.5
12 Jul 8, 2026−4.49%
Nothing on CFGgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
12Jul 8, 2026−4.49%
Nothing on CFGNo CFG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.6% did not move with itFITB −3.7 · BNY −1.8 · STT −1.4 · NTRS −0.8
13 Jul 16, 2026+4.61%
Resultsgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
13Jul 16, 2026+4.61%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 16 results filing
−0.7% did not move with itFITB +2.5 · STT −0.5 · BNY −0.9 · NTRS −1.4
14 Aug 19, 2026−3.68%
Nothing on CFGgroup −2.9%, moved with CFG
14Aug 19, 2026−3.68%
Nothing on CFGNo CFG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.9% moved with CFGFITB −4.1 · STT −3.2 · NTRS −2.7 · BNY −2.5
15 Sep 16, 2026−4.84%
Nothing on CFGgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
15Sep 16, 2026−4.84%
Nothing on CFGNo CFG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.2% did not move with itFITB −4.1 · STT −1.2 · NTRS −1.2 · BNY −0.8
16 Oct 30, 2026−2.97%
Nothing on CFGgroup −1.8%, moved with CFG
16Oct 30, 2026−2.97%
Nothing on CFGNo CFG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% moved with CFGSTT −2.3 · NTRS −2.2 · BNY −1.5 · FITB −1.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of BNY, FITB, STT and NTRS that day, the largest companies in CFG’s SEC industry; “moved with CFG” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). CFG reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 21, 2026

day 1+7.11%day 6+5.20%

Reported Apr 16, 2026

day 1−1.20%day 6−0.03%

Reported Jul 16, 2026

day 1+4.61%day 6+0.96%

Reported Oct 16, 2026

day 1−0.11%day 6+2.70%

Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 16 report: +3.89%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is CFG’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

CFG against four bank peers, a year at 100

CFG is up 27.5% in a year. Bank of New York Mellon is up 15.1 times, State Street is up 46.6%, Northern Trust 37.0% and Fifth Third Bancorp 27.6%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 15-fold rise and a 27.5% rise both read honestly.

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CFG +27.5%. Bank of New York Mellon ×15.1, State Street +46.6%, Northern Trust +37.0%, Fifth Third Bancorp +27.6%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in CFG’s SEC industry (State Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

BNY	Bank of New York Mellon	$103.6B	−3.42%
FITB	Fifth Third Bancorp	$49.6B	−2.32%
STT	State Street	$47.6B	−4.72%
NTRS	Northern Trust	$32.6B	−3.72%
MTB	M&T Bank	$32.4B	−2.16%
FCNCA	First Citizens Bancshares	$30.3B	−1.16%
EWBC	East West Bancorp	$18.4B	−3.74%
ALLY	Ally Financial	$12.0B	−1.35%