Northern Trust NTRS

Nasdaq · State Commercial Banks · $32.6B

$171.39−3.72%Nov 5 close · Databento

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NTRS Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $171.391D −3.72%3M −8.77%SMA20 $168.78SMA50 $174.47RSI(14) 50.3

171.39

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 50.3

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$32.6B

EV / True FCF5.3x

Revenue$8.1B −2.5%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.3B +1029.3%

Rule of 4065.0%

True FCF Yield16.4%

EPS, diluted$8.74 −10.5%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$32.6B

Enterprise Value$28.1B

EV / True FCF5.27

EV / FCF5.15

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales3.48

P / E (GAAP)18.75

P / FCF5.97

P / Oper. CF5.89

P / Book2.51

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield16.4%

FCF Yield16.8%

Owner Earn. Yield4.7%

Earnings Yield5.3%

Shareholder Yield+5.3%

Buyback Yield3.9%

Dividend Yield1.81%

Dividend / sh$3.10

Payout Ratio34%

FCF / sh$30.14

EPS (diluted)$8.74

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4065.0%

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)64.2%

GP / Assets—

ROE13.4%

ROA1.0%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin21.5%

FCF Margin67.5%

True FCF Margin66.0%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion314%

Accrual Ratio−2.1%

SBC % of FCF2.3%

SBC % of Rev1.6%

Reinvest. Rate1%

Sales Growth Y/Y−2.5%

Sales 3Y CAGR+6.1%

EPS Growth Y/Y−10.5%

FCF Growth Y/Y+1029.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR+34.1%

Share Change Y/Y−4.8%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$8.1B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$1.7B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$5.3B

Cash & Equiv$5.9B

Total Debt$1.4B

Net Cash (Debt)$4.5B

Net Cash % MCap+13.7%

Debt / FCF (yrs)0.3y

Current Ratio—181.12M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−0.88%

Perf Month+1.91%

Perf Quarter−7.61%

Perf Half Y+7.10%

Perf YTD+7.80%

SMA 20 Dist+1.55%$168.78

SMA 50 Dist−1.77%$174.47

SMA 100 Dist−3.92%$178.39

Window High−10.49%$191.47

Window Low+7.80%$158.99

RSI (14) · Vol50.326%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of NTRS revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$6.3B ($78.5 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.7B ($21.5 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.7B (21.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$5.5B(68.4% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$74.0M(0.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$5.5B(67.5% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$126.5M(2.3% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$5.3B(66.0% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$6.5B	$6.8B	$6.8B	$8.3B	$8.1B	−2.5%	+5.8%
Interest Expense	$23.8M	$990.5M	$5.3B	—	$5.3B	—	+287.1%
Income Tax Expense	$464.8M	$430.3M	$357.5M	$628.4M	$602.6M	−4.1%	+6.7%
GAAP Net Income	$1.5B	$1.3B	$1.1B	$2.0B	$1.7B	−14.5%	+3.0%
Diluted EPS	$7.14	$6.14	$5.08	$9.77	$8.74	−10.5%	+5.2%
Diluted Shares	208.9M	208.9M	207.6M	201.9M	192.2M	−4.8%	−2.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$3.1B	$4.7B	$4.8B	$4.7B	$5.9B	+25.6%	+17.7%
Total Assets	$183.9B	$155.0B	$150.8B	$155.5B	$177.1B	+13.9%	−0.9%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.4B	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Liabilities	$171.9B	$143.8B	$138.9B	$142.7B	$164.2B	+15.0%	−1.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$12.0B	$11.3B	$11.9B	$12.8B	$13.0B	+1.3%	+1.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$1.6B	$3.2B	$3.4B	$3.3B	$4.5B	+36.7%	+28.4%
Invested Capital	$10.4B	$8.0B	$8.5B	$9.5B	$8.5B	−10.8%	−4.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$1.4B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$-486.0M	$5.5B	+1238.6%	+42.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$95.5M	$125.2M	$118.2M	$119.4M	$126.5M	+5.9%	+7.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$95.5M	$128.6M	$116.5M	$101.5M	$74.0M	−27.1%	−6.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$1.3B	$2.3B	$2.5B	$-587.5M	$5.5B	+1029.3%	+44.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$1.2B	$2.1B	$2.4B	$-706.9M	$5.3B	+854.4%	+46.3%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$267.6M	$35.4M	$347.5M	$937.8M	$1.3B	+35.8%	+47.7%
Dividends Paid	$583.3M	$750.2M	$621.5M	$602.3M	$591.6M	−1.8%	+0.4%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what NTRS did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named NTRS yet.

What happened · big days

19 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.75% from the one before, three times NTRS’s median day (0.92%). On 13 of the 19, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.75%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayNTRSWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 17, 2025−3.67%
Before our storiesgroup −3.3%, moved with NTRS
1Nov 17, 2025−3.67%
Before our stories
−3.3% moved with NTRSSTT −3.4 · FITB −3.4 · MTB −3.2 · BNY +0.8
2 Dec 10, 2025+3.15%
Before our storiesgroup +2.9%, moved with NTRS
2Dec 10, 2025+3.15%
Before our stories
+2.9% moved with NTRSFITB +5.3 · MTB +3.5 · STT +2.2 · BNY −0.2
3 Jan 5, 2026+3.39%
Before our storiesgroup +2.3%, moved with NTRS
3Jan 5, 2026+3.39%
Before our stories
+2.3% moved with NTRSSTT +3.0 · MTB +2.6 · FITB +1.9 · BNY 0.0
4 Jan 22, 2026+6.02%
Resultsgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
4Jan 22, 2026+6.02%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 22 results filing
−0.6% did not move with itSTT +1.2 · BNY −0.5 · MTB −0.8 · FITB −3.7
5 Jan 23, 2026−2.93%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
5Jan 23, 2026−2.93%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itSTT −1.8 · MTB −1.7 · FITB −0.3 · BNY +0.2
6 Feb 6, 2026+3.17%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, moved with NTRS
6Feb 6, 2026+3.17%
Before our stories
+2.1% moved with NTRSSTT +2.8 · FITB +2.4 · MTB +1.7 · BNY −0.3
7 Feb 10, 2026−3.79%
Before our storiesgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
7Feb 10, 2026−3.79%
Before our stories
−0.0% did not move with itSTT −1.5 · MTB −0.0 · FITB +0.3
8 Feb 23, 2026−3.03%
Before our storiesgroup −4.5%, moved with NTRS
8Feb 23, 2026−3.03%
Before our stories
−4.5% moved with NTRSFITB −5.4 · MTB −4.5 · STT −2.2
9 Feb 25, 2026+3.06%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, moved with NTRS
9Feb 25, 2026+3.06%
Before our stories
+2.7% moved with NTRSSTT +3.5 · FITB +2.7 · MTB +1.8
10 Feb 27, 2026−3.05%
Before our storiesgroup −3.7%, moved with NTRS
10Feb 27, 2026−3.05%
Before our stories
−3.7% moved with NTRSFITB −4.8 · MTB −3.7 · STT −2.8
11 Mar 6, 2026−3.42%
Before our storiesgroup −2.9%, moved with NTRS
11Mar 6, 2026−3.42%
Before our stories
−2.9% moved with NTRSSTT −3.3 · FITB −2.9 · MTB −2.6
12 Apr 8, 2026+4.20%
Before our storiesgroup +3.3%, moved with NTRS
12Apr 8, 2026+4.20%
Before our stories
+3.3% moved with NTRSSTT +3.8 · MTB +3.3 · FITB +3.2
13 Apr 21, 2026+8.02%
Resultsgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
13Apr 21, 2026+8.02%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 21 results filing
+0.2% did not move with itSTT +2.3 · FITB +0.2 · MTB −0.4
14 Jun 11, 2026+2.78%
Nothing on NTRSgroup +1.7%, moved with NTRS
14Jun 11, 2026+2.78%
Nothing on NTRSNo NTRS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% moved with NTRSSTT +1.9 · MTB +1.7 · BNY +1.7 · FITB +1.5
15 Jul 22, 2026−3.46%
Resultsgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
15Jul 22, 2026−3.46%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 22 results filing
+0.9% did not move with itFITB +0.0 · MTB +0.8 · BNY +0.9 · STT +1.1
16 Sep 14, 2026−3.95%
Nothing on NTRSgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
16Sep 14, 2026−3.95%
Nothing on NTRSNo NTRS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% did not move with itBNY −3.1 · STT −2.7 · MTB −0.8 · FITB −0.6
17 Sep 22, 2026−3.10%
Nothing on NTRSgroup −1.9%, moved with NTRS
17Sep 22, 2026−3.10%
Nothing on NTRSNo NTRS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% moved with NTRSBNY −2.4 · STT −2.3 · MTB −1.6 · FITB −1.0
18 Oct 14, 2026−2.89%
Nothing on NTRSgroup −1.8%, moved with NTRS
18Oct 14, 2026−2.89%
Nothing on NTRSNo NTRS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% moved with NTRSSTT −4.1 · BNY −2.4 · FITB −1.1 · MTB −0.9
19 Nov 4, 2026+3.14%
Nothing on NTRSgroup +1.8%, moved with NTRS
19Nov 4, 2026+3.14%
Nothing on NTRSNo NTRS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% moved with NTRSBNY +2.3 · STT +2.2 · FITB +1.5 · MTB +1.2

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of BNY, FITB, STT and MTB that day, the largest companies in NTRS’s SEC industry; “moved with NTRS” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). NTRS reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 22, 2026

day 1+6.02%day 6+4.32%

Reported Apr 21, 2026

day 1+8.02%day 6+4.98%

Reported Jul 22, 2026

day 1−3.46%day 6−4.00%

Reported Oct 21, 2026

day 1+0.89%day 6+3.90%

Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 21 report: +7.60%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is NTRS’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

NTRS against four bank peers, a year at 100

NTRS is up 37.0% in a year. Bank of New York Mellon is up 15.1 times and State Street is up 46.6%. Of these four, Fifth Third Bancorp (+27.6%) and M&T Bank (+20.9%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 15-fold rise and a 20.9% rise both read honestly.

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NTRS +37.0%. Bank of New York Mellon ×15.1, State Street +46.6%, Fifth Third Bancorp +27.6%, M&T Bank +20.9%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in NTRS’s SEC industry (State Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

BNY	Bank of New York Mellon	$103.6B	−3.42%
FITB	Fifth Third Bancorp	$49.6B	−2.32%
STT	State Street	$47.6B	−4.72%
MTB	M&T Bank	$32.4B	−2.16%
FCNCA	First Citizens Bancshares	$30.3B	−1.16%
CFG	Citizens Financial	$27.8B	−3.14%
EWBC	East West Bancorp	$18.4B	−3.74%
ALLY	Ally Financial	$12.0B	−1.35%