DK Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $62.491D −4.54%3M +2.76%SMA20 $73.94SMA50 $73.84RSI(14) 33.9
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$4.0B
EV / FCF1051.6x
Revenue$10.7B −9.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-80.4M +101.3%
Rule of 40-9.4%
ROIC11.2%
True FCF Yield-2.0%
EPS, diluted$-0.38 +95.7%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$4.0B
Enterprise Value$6.6B
EV / True FCF—
EV / FCF1051.60
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT22.01
EV / Sales0.62
P / E (GAAP)—
P / FCF636.23
P / Oper. CF7.48
P / Book7.32
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield-2.0%
FCF Yield0.2%
Owner Earn. Yield-6.0%
Earnings Yield-0.6%
Shareholder Yield−0.6%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield1.63%
Dividend / sh$1.02
Payout Ratio-272%
FCF / sh$0.10
EPS (diluted)$-0.38
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40-9.4%
ROIC11.2%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)0.2%
GP / Assets—
ROE-4.2%
ROA-0.3%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin2.8%
Net Margin-0.2%
FCF Margin0.1%
True FCF Margin-0.7%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion—
Accrual Ratio−8.2%
SBC % of FCF1376.2%
SBC % of Rev0.8%
Reinvest. Rate99%
Sales Growth Y/Y−9.5%
Sales 3Y CAGR−18.5%
EPS Growth Y/Y+95.7%
FCF Growth Y/Y+101.3%
FCF 3Y CAGR−64.9%
Share Change Y/Y−5.0%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$10.7B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)$301.0M
GAAP Net Income$-22.8M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-80.4M
Cash & Equiv$625.8M
Total Debt$3.2B
Net Cash (Debt)$-2.6B
Net Cash % MCap−65.3%
Debt / FCF (yrs)514.7y
Current Ratio0.8261.23M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−12.11%
Perf Month−17.19%
Perf Quarter+6.89%
Perf Half Y+39.80%
Perf YTD+64.45%
SMA 20 Dist−15.49%$73.94
SMA 50 Dist−15.37%$73.84
SMA 100 Dist−6.21%$66.63
Window High−23.37%$81.55
Window Low+64.45%$38.00
RSI (14) · Vol33.966%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of DK revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$86.7M(1376.2% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-80.4M(-0.7% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
$10.6BFY21
$19.8BFY22
$16.5BFY23
$11.9BFY24
$10.7BFY25
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$10.6B
$19.8B
$16.5B
$11.9B
$10.7B
−9.5%
+0.2%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$10.4B
$19.1B
$15.9B
$11.9B
$10.1B
−15.0%
−0.7%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)
$200.4M
$313.7M
$272.0M
$252.8M
$269.5M
+6.6%
+7.7%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$-34.7M
$457.5M
$244.7M
$-491.5M
$301.0M
+161.2%
—
Interest Expense
$18.1M
$23.4M
$61.4M
—
$61.4M
—
+35.7%
Income Tax Expense
$-42.0M
$56.4M
$-3.0M
$-107.9M
$-6.8M
+93.7%
—
GAAP Net Income ▸
$-128.3M
$257.1M
$19.8M
$-560.4M
$-22.8M
+95.9%
—
Diluted EPS ▸
$-1.73
$3.59
$0.30
$-8.77
$-0.38
+95.7%
—
Diluted Shares
74.0M
71.5M
65.4M
63.9M
60.7M
−5.0%
−4.8%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$856.5M
$840.9M
$821.8M
$735.6M
$625.8M
−14.9%
−7.5%
Inventory
$1.3B
$1.5B
$941.2M
$893.2M
$726.0M
−18.7%
−12.9%
Total Current Assets
$3.0B
$3.7B
$2.7B
$2.3B
$2.1B
−11.3%
−9.0%
Total Assets
$6.8B
$8.2B
$7.2B
$6.7B
$6.8B
+2.7%
+0.1%
Total Current Liabilities
$3.1B
$3.1B
$2.7B
$2.5B
$2.5B
+0.5%
−5.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$2.3B
$3.1B
$2.6B
$2.8B
$3.2B
+16.9%
+8.8%
Stockholders' Equity
$1.0B
$1.1B
$959.7M
$575.2M
$547.3M
−4.9%
−14.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-1.5B
$-2.3B
$-1.8B
$-2.0B
$-2.6B
−28.3%
—
Invested Capital
$2.5B
$3.4B
$2.8B
$2.6B
$3.2B
+21.0%
+6.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$371.4M
$425.3M
$1.0B
$-66.8M
$535.8M
+902.1%
+9.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$264.6M
$275.0M
$339.5M
$374.5M
$397.8M
+6.2%
+10.7%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$24.6M
$29.1M
$27.5M
$33.8M
$86.7M
+156.5%
+37.0%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$222.2M
$280.2M
$392.5M
$427.7M
$529.5M
+23.8%
+24.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$149.2M
$145.1M
$621.1M
$-494.5M
$6.3M
+101.3%
−54.7%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$124.6M
$116.0M
$593.6M
$-528.3M
$-80.4M
+84.8%
—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$0
$64.0M
$0
$0
$0
—
—
Dividends Paid
$0
$42.8M
$60.3M
$64.2M
$62.0M
−3.4%
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what DK did at the next close after each story
No Wire story has named DK yet.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
18 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 6.18% from the one before, three times DK’s median day (2.06%). On 2 of the 18, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±6.18%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayDKWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 20, 2025−7.04%
Before our storiesgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
1Nov 20, 2025−7.04%
Before our stories
−0.9% did not move with itMPC −3.9 · CVX −0.9 · COP −0.6
2 Dec 16, 2025−6.33%
Before our storiesgroup −3.8%, moved with DK
2Dec 16, 2025−6.33%
Before our stories
−3.8% moved with DKMPC −4.7 · COP −3.8 · CVX −2.0
3 Feb 3, 2026+6.67%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, did not move with it
3Feb 3, 2026+6.67%
Before our stories
+3.1% did not move with itMPC +6.0 · COP +3.1 · CVX +2.3
4 Feb 26, 2026+8.50%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
4Feb 26, 2026+8.50%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itMPC +2.7 · COP +0.6 · CVX −0.0
5 Mar 2, 2026+8.48%
Before our storiesgroup +4.2%, did not move with it
5Mar 2, 2026+8.48%
Before our stories
+4.2% did not move with itMPC +5.9 · COP +4.2 · CVX +1.5
6 Mar 18, 2026+7.25%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
6Mar 18, 2026+7.25%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itMPC +1.3 · COP +0.6 · CVX +0.3
7 Mar 24, 2026+8.30%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
7Mar 24, 2026+8.30%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itMPC +4.9 · COP +1.7 · CVX +0.8
8 Apr 17, 2026−12.30%
Before our storiesgroup −4.5%, did not move with it
8Apr 17, 2026−12.30%
Before our stories
−4.5% did not move with itMPC −5.5 · COP −4.5 · CVX −2.2
9 Apr 29, 2026+13.72%
Resultsgroup +3.2%, did not move with it
9Apr 29, 2026+13.72%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 29 results filing
+3.2% did not move with itMPC +4.0 · COP +3.2 · CVX +2.0
10 May 6, 2026−8.24%
Before our storiesgroup −3.9%, did not move with it
10May 6, 2026−8.24%
Before our stories
−3.9% did not move with itMPC −5.7 · CVX −3.9 · COP −3.6
11 Jun 25, 2026+6.21%
Nothing on DKgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
11Jun 25, 2026+6.21%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.5% did not move with itMPC +2.9 · CVX +0.5 · COP −0.5
12 Jun 29, 2026+7.86%
Nothing on DKgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
12Jun 29, 2026+7.86%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itMPC +2.0 · CVX −1.5 · COP −1.7
13 Jul 8, 2026+7.13%
Nothing on DKgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
13Jul 8, 2026+7.13%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itMPC +5.4 · COP +2.1 · CVX +1.1
14 Aug 5, 2026−9.74%
Nothing on DKgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
14Aug 5, 2026−9.74%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% did not move with itMPC −4.8 · COP −2.5 · CVX −2.1
15 Aug 21, 2026+11.60%
Nothing on DKgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
15Aug 21, 2026+11.60%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.0% did not move with itMPC +0.7 · COP −0.0 · CVX −0.2
16 Sep 24, 2026−7.40%
Nothing on DKgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
16Sep 24, 2026−7.40%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itCVX +0.1 · XOM +0.6 · MPC +0.7 · COP +1.0
17 Oct 27, 2026−10.41%
Nothing on DKgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
17Oct 27, 2026−10.41%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itMPC −7.4 · XOM −2.5 · COP −2.3 · CVX −1.6
18 Nov 4, 2026−7.61%
Nothing on DKgroup −4.9%, moved with DK
18Nov 4, 2026−7.61%
Nothing on DKNo DK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.9% moved with DKMPC −8.1 · COP −5.2 · XOM −4.6 · CVX −3.7
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of XOM, CVX, COP and MPC that day, the largest companies in DK’s SEC industry; “moved with DK” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last three did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). DK reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Nov 7, 2025
day 1+5.66%day 6+3.75%
Reported Feb 27, 2026
day 1+4.76%day 6+16.25%
Reported Apr 29, 2026
day 1+13.72%day 6+9.65%
Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Three reports is a small sample.
Each line is DK’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
DK against four refining peers, a year at 100
DK is up 50.8% in a year. Valero Energy is up 2.1 times, Marathon Petroleum 2.0 and Conocophillips is up 56.0%. Of these four, only Chevron (+40.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a twofold rise and a 40.0% rise both read honestly.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in DK’s SEC industry (Petroleum Refining) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.