PBF Energy PBF

NYSE · Petroleum Refining · $8.3B

$68.37−5.85%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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PBF Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $68.371D −5.85%3M +3.14%SMA20 $79.88SMA50 $77.69RSI(14) 38.1

68.37

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 38.1

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$8.3B

Enterprise value$10.0B

Revenue$29.3B −11.4%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-822.2M −125.4%

Rule of 40-14.1%

ROIC-0.5%

True FCF Yield-9.9%

EPS, diluted$-1.39 +69.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$8.3B

Enterprise Value$10.0B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales0.34

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book1.53

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-9.9%

FCF Yield-9.4%

Owner Earn. Yield-6.4%

Earnings Yield-1.9%

Shareholder Yield+1.3%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield1.76%

Dividend / sh$1.20

Payout Ratio-91%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-1.39

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-14.1%

ROIC-0.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-11.1%

GP / Assets—

ROE-2.9%

ROA-1.2%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin-0.2%

Net Margin-0.5%

FCF Margin-2.7%

True FCF Margin-2.8%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−0.6%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y−11.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR−14.4%

EPS Growth Y/Y+69.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y−125.4%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−1.9%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$29.3B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$-54.3M

GAAP Net Income$-158.5M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-822.2M

Cash & Equiv$527.9M

Total Debt$2.1B

Net Cash (Debt)$-1.6B

Net Cash % MCap−19.4%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.21

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−9.49%

Perf Month−18.30%

Perf Quarter+10.79%

Perf Half Y+68.44%

Perf YTD+81.11%

SMA 20 Dist−14.41%$79.88

SMA 50 Dist−11.99%$77.69

SMA 100 Dist−0.09%$68.43

Window High−25.01%$91.17

Window Low+83.35%$37.29

RSI (14) · Vol38.169%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of PBF revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$29.9B ($100.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$54.3M ($0.2 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$104.2M ($0.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-158.5M ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-158.5M (-0.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-78.0M(-0.3% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$705.2M(2.4% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-783.2M(-2.7% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$39.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-822.2M(-2.8% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$27.3B	$46.8B	$38.3B	$33.1B	$29.3B	−11.4%	+1.9%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$26.4B	$42.2B	$35.9B	$33.5B	$29.9B	−10.7%	+3.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$597.2M	$4.2B	$3.0B	$-699.0M	$-54.3M	+92.2%	—
Interest Expense	$317.5M	$246.0M	$63.8M	$72.0M	$181.6M	+152.2%	−13.0%
Income Tax Expense	$12.1M	$584.8M	$723.8M	$-228.4M	$-74.1M	+67.6%	—
GAAP Net Income	$231.0M	$2.9B	$2.1B	$-533.8M	$-158.5M	+70.3%	—
Diluted EPS	$1.90	$22.84	$16.52	$-4.60	$-1.39	+69.8%	—
Diluted Shares	122.6M	126.9M	130.5M	117.1M	114.9M	−1.9%	−1.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$1.3B	$2.2B	$1.8B	$536.1M	$527.9M	−1.5%	−20.8%
Inventory	$2.5B	$2.8B	$3.2B	$2.6B	$2.6B	−1.2%	+0.6%
Total Current Assets	$5.2B	$6.5B	$6.6B	$4.5B	$4.5B	−2.0%	−3.8%
Total Assets	$11.6B	$13.5B	$14.4B	$12.7B	$13.0B	+2.5%	+2.8%
Total Current Liabilities	$3.8B	$5.2B	$4.2B	$3.6B	$3.7B	+1.2%	−0.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$4.3B	$1.4B	$1.2B	$1.5B	$2.1B	+47.4%	−15.9%
Total Liabilities	$9.1B	$8.5B	$7.8B	$7.0B	$7.6B	+7.8%	−4.5%
Stockholders' Equity	$2.5B	$5.1B	$6.6B	$5.7B	$5.4B	−4.0%	+21.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-3.0B	$768.7M	$537.6M	$-921.2M	$-1.6B	−75.9%	—
Invested Capital	$5.5B	$4.3B	$6.1B	$6.6B	$7.1B	+7.1%	+6.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$477.3M	$4.8B	$1.3B	$43.4M	$-78.0M	−279.7%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$221.1M	$262.0M	$314.4M	$358.3M	$371.6M	+3.7%	+13.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$35.6M	$54.3M	$51.5M	$44.3M	$39.0M	−12.0%	+2.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$249.1M	$633.3M	$659.6M	$390.9M	$705.2M	+80.4%	+29.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$228.2M	$4.1B	$678.9M	$-347.5M	$-783.2M	−125.4%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$192.6M	$4.1B	$627.4M	$-391.8M	$-822.2M	−109.9%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$0	$156.4M	$532.5M	$329.1M	$0	−100.0%	—
Dividends Paid	—	—	—	—	$143.5M	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what PBF did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named PBF yet.

What happened · big days

21 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 7.14% from the one before, three times PBF’s median day (2.38%). On 1 of the 21, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±7.14%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayPBFWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 10, 2025+7.88%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
1Nov 10, 2025+7.88%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itCOP +1.6 · MPC +1.3 · CVX +0.4
2 Nov 20, 2025−7.23%
Before our storiesgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
2Nov 20, 2025−7.23%
Before our stories
−0.9% did not move with itMPC −3.9 · CVX −0.9 · COP −0.6
3 Dec 16, 2025−10.99%
Before our storiesgroup −3.8%, did not move with it
3Dec 16, 2025−10.99%
Before our stories
−3.8% did not move with itMPC −4.7 · COP −3.8 · CVX −2.0
4 Jan 6, 2026−7.69%
Before our storiesgroup −2.6%, did not move with it
4Jan 6, 2026−7.69%
Before our stories
−2.6% did not move with itCVX −4.5 · MPC −2.6 · COP −2.1
5 Jan 8, 2026+13.85%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, did not move with it
5Jan 8, 2026+13.85%
Before our stories
+2.6% did not move with itCOP +5.1 · MPC +2.6 · CVX +2.6
6 Mar 2, 2026+10.62%
Before our storiesgroup +4.2%, did not move with it
6Mar 2, 2026+10.62%
Before our stories
+4.2% did not move with itMPC +5.9 · COP +4.2 · CVX +1.5
7 Mar 4, 2026+12.68%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
7Mar 4, 2026+12.68%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itMPC +4.2 · CVX −1.4 · COP −2.4
8 Mar 9, 2026−11.86%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
8Mar 9, 2026−11.86%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itMPC −2.5 · CVX −0.3 · COP −0.0
9 Mar 24, 2026+7.51%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
9Mar 24, 2026+7.51%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itMPC +4.9 · COP +1.7 · CVX +0.8
10 Apr 17, 2026−12.83%
Before our storiesgroup −4.5%, did not move with it
10Apr 17, 2026−12.83%
Before our stories
−4.5% did not move with itMPC −5.5 · COP −4.5 · CVX −2.2
11 Apr 21, 2026+7.79%
Before our storiesgroup +2.9%, did not move with it
11Apr 21, 2026+7.79%
Before our stories
+2.9% did not move with itCOP +3.3 · MPC +2.9 · CVX +1.5
12 May 6, 2026−9.96%
Before our storiesgroup −3.9%, did not move with it
12May 6, 2026−9.96%
Before our stories
−3.9% did not move with itMPC −5.7 · CVX −3.9 · COP −3.6
13 Jun 29, 2026+7.70%
Nothing on PBFgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
13Jun 29, 2026+7.70%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itMPC +2.0 · CVX −1.5 · COP −1.7
14 Jul 8, 2026+9.16%
Nothing on PBFgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
14Jul 8, 2026+9.16%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itMPC +5.4 · COP +2.1 · CVX +1.1
15 Jul 13, 2026+8.01%
Nothing on PBFgroup +3.5%, did not move with it
15Jul 13, 2026+8.01%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.5% did not move with itMPC +4.6 · COP +3.5 · CVX +3.3
16 Jul 30, 2026+15.39%
Resultsgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
16Jul 30, 2026+15.39%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 30 results filing
+0.8% did not move with itMPC +1.7 · COP +0.8 · CVX +0.2
17 Aug 5, 2026−7.16%
Nothing on PBFgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
17Aug 5, 2026−7.16%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% did not move with itMPC −4.8 · COP −2.5 · CVX −2.1
18 Aug 10, 2026+7.42%
Nothing on PBFgroup +4.6%, moved with PBF
18Aug 10, 2026+7.42%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.6% moved with PBFMPC +7.4 · COP +4.6 · CVX +4.5
19 Sep 14, 2026−10.09%
Nothing on PBFgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
19Sep 14, 2026−10.09%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itCVX −0.9 · COP −0.5 · MPC +0.1
20 Oct 13, 2026+7.23%
Nothing on PBFgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
20Oct 13, 2026+7.23%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% did not move with itMPC +4.0 · COP +2.4 · CVX +1.3 · XOM +1.1
21 Oct 27, 2026−8.59%
Nothing on PBFgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
21Oct 27, 2026−8.59%
Nothing on PBFNo PBF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itMPC −7.4 · XOM −2.5 · COP −2.3 · CVX −1.6

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of XOM, CVX, COP and MPC that day, the largest companies in PBF’s SEC industry; “moved with PBF” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). PBF reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 1 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Feb 12, 2026

day 1−5.87%day 6−3.89%

Reported Apr 30, 2026

day 1+0.53%day 6−5.89%

Reported Jul 30, 2026

day 1+15.39%day 6−3.33%

Reported Oct 29, 2026

day 1+3.08%day 6−6.70%

Next report: expected late January to mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 29 report: −6.70%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is PBF’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

PBF against four refining peers, a year at 100

PBF is up 85.2% in a year. Valero Energy is up 2.1 times and Marathon Petroleum 2.0. Of these four, Conocophillips (+56.0%) and Chevron (+40.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a twofold rise and a 40.0% rise both read honestly.

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PBF +85.2%. Valero Energy ×2.1, Marathon Petroleum ×2.0, Conocophillips +56.0%, Chevron +40.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in PBF’s SEC industry (Petroleum Refining) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

XOM	Exxon Mobil	$701.6B	−2.35%
CVX	Chevron	$428.7B	−1.86%
COP	Conocophillips	$164.5B	−1.08%
MPC	Marathon Petroleum	$110.3B	−3.91%
VLO	Valero Energy	$105.2B	−3.86%
PSX	Phillips 66	$103.6B	−4.85%
CVI	CVR Energy	$4.3B	−7.37%
DK	Delek US	$4.0B	−4.54%