Marathon Petroleum MPC

NYSE · Petroleum Refining · $110.3B

$377.32−3.91%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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MPC Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $377.321D −3.91%3M +17.79%SMA20 $450.82SMA50 $421.56RSI(14) 31.1

377.32

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 31.1

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$110.3B

EV / True FCF24.4x

Revenue$132.7B −4.4%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.6B −22.3%

Rule of 40-0.8%

ROIC26.6%

True FCF Yield4.2%

EPS, diluted$13.22 +31.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$110.3B

Enterprise Value$112.3B

EV / True FCF24.37

EV / FCF23.55

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT13.54

EV / Sales0.85

P / E (GAAP)27.25

P / FCF23.13

P / Oper. CF13.36

P / Book4.58

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield4.2%

FCF Yield4.3%

Owner Earn. Yield3.3%

Earnings Yield3.7%

Shareholder Yield+4.1%

Buyback Yield3.2%

Dividend Yield0.99%

Dividend / sh$3.73

Payout Ratio28%

FCF / sh$17.51

EPS (diluted)$13.22

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-0.8%

ROIC26.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)18.3%

GP / Assets—

ROE16.8%

ROA4.8%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin6.2%

Net Margin3.0%

FCF Margin3.6%

True FCF Margin3.5%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion118%

Accrual Ratio−5.0%

SBC % of FCF3.4%

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate42%

Sales Growth Y/Y−4.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR−9.2%

EPS Growth Y/Y+31.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y−22.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR−30.1%

Share Change Y/Y−10.3%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$132.7B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$8.3B

GAAP Net Income$4.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.6B

Cash & Equiv$3.7B

Total Debt$5.7B

Net Cash (Debt)$-2.0B

Net Cash % MCap−1.8%

Debt / FCF (yrs)1.2y

Current Ratio1.26272.28M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−12.76%

Perf Month−14.68%

Perf Quarter+26.53%

Perf Half Y+55.75%

Perf YTD+76.22%

SMA 20 Dist−16.30%$450.82

SMA 50 Dist−10.49%$421.56

SMA 100 Dist+4.06%$362.58

Window High−22.19%$484.92

Window Low+76.22%$214.12

RSI (14) · Vol31.150%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MPC revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$119.4B ($90.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$5.0B ($3.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$4.2B ($3.2 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$4.0B ($3.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$4.0B (3.0% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$8.3B(6.2% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.5B(2.6% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$4.8B(3.6% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$160.0M(3.4% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$4.6B(3.5% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$120.0B	$177.5B	$148.4B	$138.9B	$132.7B	−4.4%	+2.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$110.0B	$151.7B	$128.6B	$126.2B	$119.4B	−5.4%	+2.1%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$2.5B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.3B	+4.0%	+7.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$4.3B	$21.5B	$14.5B	$6.8B	$8.3B	+22.0%	+17.8%
Income Tax Expense	$264.0M	$4.5B	$2.8B	$890.0M	$1.1B	+27.8%	+44.1%
GAAP Net Income	$9.7B	$14.5B	$9.7B	$3.4B	$4.0B	+17.5%	−19.7%
Diluted EPS	$15.24	$28.12	$23.63	$10.08	$13.22	+31.2%	−3.5%
Diluted Shares	638.0M	516.0M	409.0M	341.0M	306.0M	−10.3%	−16.8%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$5.3B	$8.6B	$5.4B	$3.2B	$3.7B	+14.4%	−8.7%
Inventory	$8.1B	$8.8B	$9.3B	$9.6B	$10.1B	+5.9%	+5.9%
Total Current Assets	$30.5B	$35.2B	$32.1B	$24.4B	$24.8B	+1.4%	−5.1%
Total Assets	$85.4B	$89.9B	$86.0B	$78.9B	$84.0B	+6.5%	−0.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$17.9B	$20.0B	$20.1B	$20.8B	$19.7B	−5.5%	+2.4%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$3.9B	$4.4B	$5.3B	$6.4B	$5.7B	−10.7%	+10.0%
Total Liabilities	$51.8B	$54.8B	$54.6B	$54.4B	$59.9B	+10.2%	+3.7%
Stockholders' Equity	$32.6B	$34.1B	$30.5B	$24.3B	$24.1B	−0.9%	−7.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$1.4B	$4.3B	$181.0M	$-3.1B	$-2.0B	+36.2%	—
Invested Capital	$31.2B	$29.9B	$30.3B	$27.5B	$26.1B	−4.9%	−4.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$4.4B	$16.4B	$14.1B	$8.7B	$8.3B	−4.8%	+17.3%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$3.4B	$3.2B	$3.3B	$3.3B	$3.3B	−2.6%	−0.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$88.0M	$153.0M	$211.0M	$137.0M	$160.0M	+16.8%	+16.1%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.5B	$2.4B	$1.9B	$2.5B	$3.5B	+37.6%	+24.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$2.9B	$13.9B	$12.2B	$6.1B	$4.8B	−22.3%	+13.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$2.8B	$13.8B	$12.0B	$6.0B	$4.6B	−23.2%	+13.2%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$4.7B	$11.9B	$11.6B	$9.2B	$3.5B	−62.0%	−7.0%
Dividends Paid	$1.5B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.1B	−1.2%	−6.4%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MPC did at the next close after each story

Nov 3

Marathon Petroleum posts $7.4 billion third-quarter net income

PR Newswire · 6:45 AM ET

−0.71%

Jun 14

Phillips 66 Faces $900 Million Loss as Iran Crisis Lifts Oil Prices

EnergyNow.com · 7:44 PM ET

—

What happened · big days

23 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.25% from the one before, three times MPC’s median day (1.42%). On 15 of the 23, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.25%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayMPCWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 4, 2025−6.13%
Resultsgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
1Nov 4, 2025−6.13%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
−0.8% did not move with itVLO −1.4 · COP −0.8 · CVX −0.4
2 Dec 16, 2025−4.70%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, moved with MPC
2Dec 16, 2025−4.70%
Before our stories
−3.0% moved with MPCCOP −3.8 · VLO −3.0 · CVX −2.0
3 Jan 5, 2026+5.93%
Before our storiesgroup +5.1%, moved with MPC
3Jan 5, 2026+5.93%
Before our stories
+5.1% moved with MPCVLO +9.2 · CVX +5.1 · COP +2.6
4 Feb 3, 2026+6.03%
Resultsgroup +3.1%, moved with MPC
4Feb 3, 2026+6.03%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 3 results filing
+3.1% moved with MPCVLO +6.7 · COP +3.1 · CVX +2.3
5 Feb 4, 2026+4.45%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with MPC
5Feb 4, 2026+4.45%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with MPCVLO +2.7 · COP +2.5 · CVX +1.8
6 Feb 12, 2026−5.09%
Before our storiesgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
6Feb 12, 2026−5.09%
Before our stories
−1.8% did not move with itVLO −3.4 · CVX −1.8 · COP −0.3
7 Mar 2, 2026+5.86%
Before our storiesgroup +4.2%, moved with MPC
7Mar 2, 2026+5.86%
Before our stories
+4.2% moved with MPCVLO +5.0 · COP +4.2 · CVX +1.5
8 Mar 11, 2026+5.35%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, moved with MPC
8Mar 11, 2026+5.35%
Before our stories
+3.0% moved with MPCVLO +6.5 · CVX +3.0 · COP +2.5
9 Mar 24, 2026+4.89%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
9Mar 24, 2026+4.89%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itVLO +1.8 · COP +1.7 · CVX +0.8
10 Apr 8, 2026−5.48%
Before our storiesgroup −4.7%, moved with MPC
10Apr 8, 2026−5.48%
Before our stories
−4.7% moved with MPCCOP −5.0 · VLO −4.7 · CVX −4.3
11 Apr 17, 2026−5.55%
Before our storiesgroup −4.5%, moved with MPC
11Apr 17, 2026−5.55%
Before our stories
−4.5% moved with MPCVLO −7.5 · COP −4.5 · CVX −2.2
12 May 6, 2026−5.65%
Before our storiesgroup −3.9%, moved with MPC
12May 6, 2026−5.65%
Before our stories
−3.9% moved with MPCVLO −6.6 · CVX −3.9 · COP −3.6
13 Jun 15, 2026−4.83%
Nothing on MPCgroup −4.0%, moved with MPC
13Jun 15, 2026−4.83%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with MPCVLO −4.5 · COP −4.0 · CVX −3.6
14 Jul 8, 2026+5.39%
Nothing on MPCgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
14Jul 8, 2026+5.39%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itVLO +6.3 · COP +2.1 · CVX +1.1
15 Jul 13, 2026+4.63%
Nothing on MPCgroup +3.5%, moved with MPC
15Jul 13, 2026+4.63%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.5% moved with MPCVLO +5.4 · COP +3.5 · CVX +3.3
16 Aug 5, 2026−4.75%
Nothing on MPCgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
16Aug 5, 2026−4.75%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.1% did not move with itCOP −2.5 · CVX −2.1 · VLO −2.0
17 Aug 10, 2026+7.42%
Nothing on MPCgroup +4.6%, moved with MPC
17Aug 10, 2026+7.42%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.6% moved with MPCVLO +5.6 · COP +4.6 · CVX +4.5
18 Aug 11, 2026+5.03%
Nothing on MPCgroup +2.4%, did not move with it
18Aug 11, 2026+5.03%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.4% did not move with itVLO +2.9 · COP +2.4 · CVX +0.9
19 Sep 21, 2026−5.30%
Nothing on MPCgroup −3.3%, moved with MPC
19Sep 21, 2026−5.30%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.3% moved with MPCVLO −4.8 · COP −3.3 · CVX −2.8
20 Oct 1, 2026+6.25%
Nothing on MPCgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
20Oct 1, 2026+6.25%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.5% did not move with itVLO +5.4 · COP +1.5 · CVX +1.4 · XOM +0.7
21 Oct 8, 2026+4.77%
Nothing on MPCgroup +3.2%, moved with MPC
21Oct 8, 2026+4.77%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.2% moved with MPCVLO +4.7 · COP +3.4 · CVX +3.1 · XOM +2.7
22 Oct 27, 2026−7.36%
Nothing on MPCgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
22Oct 27, 2026−7.36%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itVLO −9.2 · XOM −2.5 · COP −2.3 · CVX −1.6
23 Nov 4, 2026−8.11%
Nothing on MPCgroup −4.9%, moved with MPC
23Nov 4, 2026−8.11%
Nothing on MPCNo MPC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.9% moved with MPCVLO −5.8 · COP −5.2 · XOM −4.6 · CVX −3.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of XOM, CVX, COP and VLO that day, the largest companies in MPC’s SEC industry; “moved with MPC” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MPC reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 4, 2025

day 1−6.13%day 6+2.22%

Reported Feb 3, 2026

day 1+6.03%day 6+15.40%

Reported May 5, 2026

day 1+3.16%day 6−0.22%

Reported Aug 4, 2026

day 1+1.82%day 6+9.57%

Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: −8.76%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is MPC’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

MPC against four refining peers, a year at 100

MPC is up 2.0 times in a year. Valero Energy is up 2.1 times. Of these four, Phillips 66 (+88.2%), Conocophillips (+56.0%) and Chevron (+40.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a twofold rise and a 40.0% rise both read honestly.

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MPC ×2.0. Valero Energy ×2.1, Phillips 66 +88.2%, Conocophillips +56.0%, Chevron +40.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MPC’s SEC industry (Petroleum Refining) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

XOM	Exxon Mobil	$701.6B	−2.35%
CVX	Chevron	$428.7B	−1.86%
COP	Conocophillips	$164.5B	−1.08%
VLO	Valero Energy	$105.2B	−3.86%
PSX	Phillips 66	$103.6B	−4.85%
PBF	PBF Energy	$8.3B	−5.85%
CVI	CVR Energy	$4.3B	−7.37%
DK	Delek US	$4.0B	−4.54%