Keurig Dr Pepper KDP

Nasdaq · Beverages · $50.1B

$36.89+0.27%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

🔒 Click to interact · scroll moves the page

KDP Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $36.891D +0.27%3M +25.90%SMA20 $34.68SMA50 $32.77RSI(14) 65.9

36.89

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 65.9

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$50.1B

EV / True FCF46.3x

Revenue$16.6B +8.2%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.4B −9.1%

Rule of 4017.3%

ROIC6.8%

True FCF Yield2.8%

EPS, diluted$1.53 +45.7%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$50.1B

Enterprise Value$65.2B

EV / True FCF46.28

EV / FCF43.30

EV / Gross Profit7.24

EV / EBIT18.23

EV / Sales3.92

P / E (GAAP)24.08

P / FCF33.27

P / Oper. CF25.15

P / Book1.96

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield2.8%

FCF Yield3.0%

Owner Earn. Yield3.9%

Earnings Yield4.2%

Shareholder Yield+2.3%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield2.49%

Dividend / sh$0.92

Payout Ratio60%

FCF / sh$1.11

EPS (diluted)$1.53

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4017.3%

ROIC6.8%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)3.7%

GP / Assets16.2%

ROE8.1%

ROA3.7%

Gross Margin54.2%

Oper. Margin21.5%

Net Margin12.5%

FCF Margin9.1%

True FCF Margin8.5%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion72%

Accrual Ratio+0.2%

SBC % of FCF6.4%

SBC % of Rev0.6%

Reinvest. Rate28%

Sales Growth Y/Y+8.2%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.7%

EPS Growth Y/Y+45.7%

FCF Growth Y/Y−9.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR−15.4%

Share Change Y/Y−0.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$16.6B

Gross Profit (FY)$9.0B

Oper. Income (FY)$3.6B

GAAP Net Income$2.1B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.4B

Cash & Equiv$1.0B

Total Debt$16.1B

Net Cash (Debt)$-15.1B

Net Cash % MCap−30.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)10.7y

Current Ratio0.641.36B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+4.50%

Perf Month+20.79%

Perf Quarter+22.93%

Perf Half Y+29.35%

Perf YTD+39.21%

SMA 20 Dist+6.36%$34.68

SMA 50 Dist+12.56%$32.77

SMA 100 Dist+15.40%$31.97

Window High0.00%$36.89

Window Low+39.52%$26.44

RSI (14) · Vol65.936%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of KDP revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$7.6B ($45.8 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$70.0M ($0.4 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$5.4B ($32.2 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$1.5B ($9.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$2.1B ($12.5 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$2.1B (12.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$2.0B(12.0% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$486.0M(2.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$1.5B(9.1% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$97.0M(6.4% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.4B(8.5% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$12.7B	$14.1B	$14.8B	$15.4B	$16.6B	+8.2%	+7.0%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$5.7B	$6.7B	$6.7B	$6.8B	$7.6B	+11.5%	+7.4%
Gross Profit	$7.0B	$7.3B	$8.1B	$8.5B	$9.0B	+5.5%	+6.6%
Research & Development (R&D)	$66.0M	$65.0M	$66.0M	$70.0M	$70.0M	+0.0%	+1.5%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$4.2B	$4.6B	$4.9B	$5.0B	$5.4B	+6.7%	+6.5%
Total Operating Expenses	$4.1B	$4.7B	$4.9B	$5.9B	$5.4B	−8.7%	+7.4%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$2.9B	$2.6B	$3.2B	$2.6B	$3.6B	+38.0%	+5.4%
Interest Expense	$500.0M	$693.0M	$496.0M	—	$496.0M	—	−0.2%
Income Tax Expense	$653.0M	$284.0M	$576.0M	$473.0M	$608.0M	+28.5%	−1.8%
GAAP Net Income	$2.1B	$1.4B	$2.2B	$1.4B	$2.1B	+44.3%	−0.8%
Diluted EPS	$1.50	$1.01	$1.55	$1.05	$1.53	+45.7%	+0.5%
Diluted Shares	1.43B	1.43B	1.41B	1.37B	1.36B	−0.4%	−1.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$568.0M	$535.0M	$267.0M	$608.0M	$1.0B	+71.7%	+16.4%
Inventory	$894.0M	$1.3B	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.7B	+33.4%	+18.0%
Total Current Assets	$3.1B	$3.8B	$3.4B	$4.0B	$5.3B	+31.7%	+14.6%
Total Assets	$50.6B	$51.8B	$52.1B	$53.4B	$55.5B	+3.8%	+2.3%
Total Current Liabilities	$6.5B	$8.1B	$8.9B	$8.1B	$8.3B	+2.5%	+6.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$12.0B	$12.5B	$13.2B	$15.6B	$16.1B	+3.8%	+7.6%
Total Liabilities	$25.6B	$26.7B	$26.5B	$29.2B	$29.9B	+2.6%	+4.0%
Stockholders' Equity	$25.0B	$25.1B	$25.7B	$24.2B	$25.5B	+5.3%	+0.5%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-11.5B	$-11.9B	$-12.9B	$-14.9B	$-15.1B	−1.0%	—
Invested Capital	$36.4B	$37.1B	$38.6B	$39.2B	$40.6B	+3.6%	+2.7%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$2.9B	$2.8B	$1.3B	$2.2B	$2.0B	−10.3%	−8.8%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$410.0M	$399.0M	$402.0M	$422.0M	$455.0M	+7.8%	+2.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$88.0M	$52.0M	$116.0M	$98.0M	$97.0M	−1.0%	+2.5%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$423.0M	$353.0M	$425.0M	$563.0M	$486.0M	−13.7%	+3.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$2.5B	$2.5B	$904.0M	$1.7B	$1.5B	−9.1%	−11.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$2.4B	$2.4B	$788.0M	$1.6B	$1.4B	−9.6%	−12.1%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$0	$379.0M	$706.0M	$1.1B	$9.0M	−99.2%	—
Dividends Paid	$955.0M	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	+4.7%	+7.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what KDP did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named KDP yet.

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.17% from the one before, three times KDP’s median day (1.06%). On 5 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.17%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayKDPWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 28, 2026−3.19%
Before our storiesgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
1Jan 28, 2026−3.19%
Before our stories
−1.2% did not move with itSTZ −2.2 · BF-B −1.7 · KO −0.7 · PEP −0.2
2 Feb 11, 2026+4.11%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
2Feb 11, 2026+4.11%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itKO +2.3 · PEP +1.3 · BF-B +1.2 · STZ −1.5
3 Feb 24, 2026+4.23%
Resultsgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
3Feb 24, 2026+4.23%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 24 results filing
+0.6% did not move with itBF-B +0.7 · PEP +0.7 · STZ +0.4 · KO +0.2
4 Apr 23, 2026+7.50%
Resultsgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
4Apr 23, 2026+7.50%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 23 results filing
+1.4% did not move with itKO +2.2 · STZ +1.6 · PEP +1.2 · BF-B −0.5
5 Apr 27, 2026−3.66%
Before our storiesgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
5Apr 27, 2026−3.66%
Before our stories
−1.2% did not move with itBF-B −2.5 · KO −1.6 · PEP −0.9 · STZ −0.6
6 Jun 17, 2026−3.47%
Nothing on KDPgroup −3.3%, moved with KDP
6Jun 17, 2026−3.47%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.3% moved with KDPBF-B −4.1 · STZ −3.6 · PEP −3.1 · KO −0.4
7 Jun 25, 2026+3.57%
Nothing on KDPgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
7Jun 25, 2026+3.57%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itSTZ +1.0 · KO −0.2 · BF-B −0.4 · PEP −1.9
8 Jul 6, 2026−4.65%
Nothing on KDPgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
8Jul 6, 2026−4.65%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itSTZ −4.9 · BF-B −1.6 · KO −1.4 · PEP −0.6
9 Jul 16, 2026+3.63%
Nothing on KDPgroup +3.0%, moved with KDP
9Jul 16, 2026+3.63%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.0% moved with KDPBF-B +3.5 · STZ +3.1 · KO +3.0 · PEP +3.0
10 Jul 28, 2026+3.19%
Nothing on KDPgroup +3.6%, moved with KDP
10Jul 28, 2026+3.19%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.6% moved with KDPBF-B +5.5 · KO +5.0 · PEP +2.2 · STZ +1.8
11 Aug 13, 2026+5.28%
Nothing on KDPgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
11Aug 13, 2026+5.28%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itSTZ +1.8 · PEP +1.4 · KO +0.8 · BF-B +0.4
12 Aug 17, 2026−3.69%
Nothing on KDPgroup −2.4%, moved with KDP
12Aug 17, 2026−3.69%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% moved with KDPSTZ −6.2 · BF-B −3.0 · PEP −1.8 · KO −0.8
13 Sep 25, 2026+3.47%
Nothing on KDPgroup +0.0%, did not move with it
13Sep 25, 2026+3.47%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.0% did not move with itBF-B +0.6 · PEP +0.4 · KO −0.3 · STZ −0.5
14 Oct 15, 2026+3.20%
Nothing on KDPgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
14Oct 15, 2026+3.20%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itSTZ +1.7 · BF-B +1.0 · KO +0.2 · PEP −0.7
15 Nov 3, 2026−5.65%
Resultsgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
15Nov 3, 2026−5.65%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 3 results filing
−2.0% did not move with itBF-B −3.5 · PEP −2.2 · STZ −1.8 · KO −1.1
16 Nov 4, 2026+5.90%
Nothing on KDPgroup +4.5%, moved with KDP
16Nov 4, 2026+5.90%
Nothing on KDPNo KDP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.5% moved with KDPBF-B +6.0 · STZ +5.3 · PEP +3.8 · KO +1.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of KO, PEP, STZ and BF-B that day, the largest companies in KDP’s SEC industry; “moved with KDP” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). KDP reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 1 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 27, 2025

day 1+7.62%day 6−1.91%

Reported Feb 24, 2026

day 1+4.23%day 6−0.67%

Reported Apr 23, 2026

day 1+7.50%day 6+10.78%

Reported Aug 6, 2026

day 1−1.24%day 6+1.20%

Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: −0.08%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is KDP’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

KDP against four beverage peers, a year at 100

KDP is up 41.7% in a year. All four did less: Coca-Cola (+35.8%), Brown Forman (+15.3%), Constellation Brands (+14.0%) and PepsiCo (−0.4%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

KDP +41.7%. Coca-Cola +35.8%, Brown Forman +15.3%, Constellation Brands +14.0%, PepsiCo −0.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in KDP’s SEC industry (Beverages) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

KO	Coca-Cola	$412.2B	−0.07%
PEP	PepsiCo	$194.4B	+0.20%
STZ	Constellation Brands	$24.6B	−0.64%
BF-B	Brown Forman	$14.3B	+0.91%
PRMB	Primo Brands	$7.6B	+5.38%
COCO	Vita Coco	$3.8B	−2.81%
WEST	Westrock Coffee	$1.0B	+0.10%
BRCC	BRC	$928M	−0.10%