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Google and Microsoft face scrutiny over AI spending in pivotal earnings

Investors are bracing for major artificial-intelligence spending disclosures as Google and Microsoft approach pivotal earnings reports. The setup puts cloud growth and the scale of data-center investment at the center of the next technology-sector read.

STOCK PHOTO · ARTEM PODREZ

The story

Google and Microsoft are approaching earnings reports that investors view as important tests of the artificial-intelligence spending cycle. Technology stocks have rebounded ahead of those results, leaving expectations focused on how the hyperscalers are funding and monetizing AI infrastructure.

Alphabet reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $402.8B, up 15.1% year over year, while Microsoft reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $331.8B, up 17.8%. Those figures come from different fiscal year-ends and are not directly comparable, but they frame the scale of the businesses being asked to sustain heavy AI investment.

For Alphabet, the relevant link runs through advertising and cloud services: spending on computing capacity must support AI products without undermining the economics of its core search business. For Microsoft, the mechanism is tied to Azure and related applications and agents, where infrastructure spending is intended to support demand for AI services and software.

The immediate uncertainty is the balance between the cost of expanding capacity and evidence that customers are generating enough revenue to justify it. The market reaction has already moved ahead of the reports, so the coming results will provide the next dated evidence on spending, cloud growth and management commentary.

Alphabet reports on Oct. 29, followed by Microsoft on Oct. 29. Investors will have those disclosures to assess whether AI-related demand is scaling alongside the capital required to serve it.

Our read · Wed, Oct 28

Google and Microsoft face pivotal earnings as investors scrutinize the cost of artificial-intelligence expansion.

Why. The next read turns on whether AI infrastructure spending is producing enough cloud and software demand to support the expansion, rather than on the rebound that preceded the reports. Alphabet’s fiscal 2025 revenue was $402.8B with a 32.8% net margin, while Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 revenue was $331.8B with a 40.3% net margin; those figures show substantial existing scale but do not settle the incremental return on AI investment.

Both cases

The case it holdsAlphabet’s $402.8B fiscal 2025 revenue and Microsoft’s $331.8B fiscal 2026 revenue provide large operating bases from which AI demand could support continued growth.
The case it breaksThe concrete bear case is that the spending bill arrives before the earnings reports demonstrate that AI infrastructure is translating into sufficient cloud and software revenue.

What could change this view: The read breaks if the earnings reports do not provide comparable detail on AI spending, cloud demand or the economics of the expansion.

Alphabet stock page →
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Who reported it · 4

NYT BusinessoriginalWed, Oct 28 · 7:48 AM ETInvestors Brace for Big Tech’s A.I. Spending Bill
NYT BusinessThu, Oct 29 · 8:26 AM ETMicrosoft Up, Google Down. A Tale of Two Hyperscalers.

Since this story · the companies named here, equal weight · −6.0%

Oct 28 · first close after publicationNov 5

Price context does not establish that the story caused the move.

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About this report

Reported by NYT Business as Investors Brace for Big Tech’s A.I. Spending Bill, . Who answers for this

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