Block XYZ

NYSE · Services-Prepackaged Software · $54.6B

$84.04−4.10%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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XYZ Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $84.041D −4.10%3M +6.41%SMA20 $77.82SMA50 $77.90RSI(14) 61.7

84.04

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 61.7

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$54.6B

EV / True FCF41.2x

Revenue$24.2B +0.3%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B +56.1%

Rule of 4010.3%

ROIC7.6%

True FCF Yield2.2%

EPS, diluted$2.10 −53.9%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$54.6B

Enterprise Value$49.8B

EV / True FCF41.22

EV / FCF20.56

EV / Gross Profit4.81

EV / EBIT29.18

EV / Sales2.06

P / E (GAAP)41.80

P / FCF22.51

P / Oper. CF21.16

P / Book2.46

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield2.2%

FCF Yield4.4%

Owner Earn. Yield0.6%

Earnings Yield2.4%

Shareholder Yield+2.0%

Buyback Yield4.3%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$2.10

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4010.3%

ROIC7.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)13.9%

GP / Assets26.2%

ROE5.9%

ROA3.3%

Gross Margin42.8%

Oper. Margin7.1%

Net Margin5.4%

FCF Margin10.0%

True FCF Margin5.0%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion186%

Accrual Ratio−3.2%

SBC % of FCF50.1%

SBC % of Rev5.0%

Reinvest. Rate119%

Sales Growth Y/Y+0.3%

Sales 3Y CAGR+11.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y−53.9%

FCF Growth Y/Y+56.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR+681.1%

Share Change Y/Y−2.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$24.2B

Gross Profit (FY)$10.4B

Oper. Income (FY)$1.7B

GAAP Net Income$1.3B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B

Cash & Equiv$12.5B

Total Debt$7.7B

Net Cash (Debt)$4.7B

Net Cash % MCap+8.7%

Debt / FCF (yrs)3.2y

Current Ratio2.20

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+9.21%

Perf Month+10.48%

Perf Quarter+6.38%

Perf Half Y+19.82%

Perf YTD+13.74%

SMA 20 Dist+8.00%$77.82

SMA 50 Dist+7.89%$77.90

SMA 100 Dist+7.03%$78.52

Window High−4.10%$87.63

Window Low+26.13%$66.63

RSI (14) · Vol61.761%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of XYZ revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$13.8B ($57.2 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$2.9B ($12.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$5.7B ($23.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$402.8M ($1.7 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.3B ($5.4 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.3B (5.4% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$2.6B(10.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$155.0M(0.6% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$2.4B(10.0% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$1.2B(50.1% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.2B(5.0% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$17.7B	$17.5B	$21.9B	$24.1B	$24.2B	+0.3%	+8.2%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$13.2B	$11.5B	$14.4B	$15.2B	$13.8B	−9.2%	+1.1%
Gross Profit	$4.4B	$6.0B	$7.5B	$8.9B	$10.4B	+16.5%	+23.7%
Research & Development (R&D)	$1.4B	$2.1B	$2.7B	$2.9B	$2.9B	−0.2%	+20.4%
Total Operating Expenses	$4.3B	$6.6B	$7.8B	$8.0B	$8.7B	+8.2%	+19.4%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$161.1M	$-624.5M	$-278.8M	$892.3M	$1.7B	+91.5%	+80.5%
Interest Expense	$58.1M	—	—	—	$58.1M	—	+0.0%
Income Tax Expense	$-1.4M	$-12.3M	$-8.0M	$-1.5B	$385.7M	+125.6%	—
GAAP Net Income	$166.3M	$-540.7M	$9.8M	$2.9B	$1.3B	−54.9%	+67.4%
Diluted EPS	$0.33	$-0.93	$0.02	$4.56	$2.10	−53.9%	+58.8%
Diluted Shares	501.8M	578.9M	614.0M	636.4M	622.8M	−2.1%	+5.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$7.0B	$8.4B	$9.0B	$13.2B	$12.5B	−5.7%	+15.7%
Inventory	$77.1M	$97.7M	$110.1M	$105.0M	$158.3M	+50.8%	+19.7%
Total Current Assets	$11.6B	$15.6B	$17.8B	$19.9B	$22.9B	+15.0%	+18.4%
Total Assets	$15.0B	$31.4B	$33.0B	$36.8B	$39.5B	+7.5%	+27.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$6.5B	$8.4B	$8.9B	$8.5B	$10.4B	+21.5%	+12.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$4.6B	$4.6B	$4.6B	$6.6B	$7.7B	+18.0%	+14.2%
Total Liabilities	$11.7B	$14.1B	$14.3B	$15.5B	$17.4B	+11.8%	+10.4%
Stockholders' Equity	$3.3B	$17.3B	$18.7B	$21.2B	$22.2B	+4.4%	+60.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$2.4B	$3.9B	$4.4B	$6.7B	$4.7B	−29.0%	+18.3%
Invested Capital	$898.2M	$13.4B	$14.3B	$14.6B	$17.4B	+19.7%	+109.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$847.8M	$175.9M	$101.0M	$1.7B	$2.6B	+51.1%	+32.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$134.8M	$340.5M	$408.6M	$376.1M	$369.5M	−1.8%	+28.7%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$608.0M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.2B	−4.5%	+18.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$134.3M	$170.8M	$151.2M	$153.9M	$155.0M	+0.7%	+3.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$713.5M	$5.1M	$-50.2M	$1.6B	$2.4B	+56.1%	+35.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$105.5M	$-1.1B	$-1.3B	$280.6M	$1.2B	+330.9%	+84.0%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$0	$0	$156.8M	$1.2B	$2.3B	+99.1%	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what XYZ did at the next close after each story

Nov 4

Block faces proposed $764 million DOJ settlement as bitcoin profit halves

CoinDesk · 1:06 AM ET

+15.30%

Sep 21

Paramount Skydance reportedly settles states’ challenge to WBD deal

ZeroHedge · 10:00 AM ET

—

What happened · big days

27 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.87% from the one before, three times XYZ’s median day (1.62%). On 11 of the 27, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.87%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayXYZWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 7, 2025−7.73%
Resultsgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 7, 2025−7.73%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 6 results filing
−1.0% did not move with itSHOP −2.3 · ORCL −1.9 · MSFT −0.1 · PLTR +1.6
2 Nov 13, 2025−5.28%
Before our storiesgroup −5.3%, moved with XYZ
2Nov 13, 2025−5.28%
Before our stories
−5.3% moved with XYZSHOP −6.5 · PLTR −6.5 · ORCL −4.2 · MSFT −1.5
3 Nov 19, 2025+7.56%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
3Nov 19, 2025+7.56%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itSHOP +4.0 · ORCL +2.3 · PLTR −1.1 · MSFT −1.4
4 Dec 2, 2025−6.59%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
4Dec 2, 2025−6.59%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itORCL +0.1 · MSFT +0.7 · PLTR +1.9 · SHOP +5.1
5 Jan 5, 2026+5.07%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
5Jan 5, 2026+5.07%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itSHOP +5.7 · PLTR +3.7 · MSFT −0.0 · ORCL −1.6
6 Jan 20, 2026−5.03%
Before our storiesgroup −3.6%, moved with XYZ
6Jan 20, 2026−5.03%
Before our stories
−3.6% moved with XYZSHOP −7.3 · ORCL −5.8 · PLTR −1.4 · MSFT −1.2
7 Feb 3, 2026−5.98%
Before our storiesgroup −3.1%, moved with XYZ
7Feb 3, 2026−5.98%
Before our stories
−3.1% moved with XYZSHOP −9.8 · ORCL −3.4 · MSFT −2.9 · PLTR +6.8
8 Feb 5, 2026−7.05%
Before our storiesgroup −5.9%, moved with XYZ
8Feb 5, 2026−7.05%
Before our stories
−5.9% moved with XYZORCL −7.0 · PLTR −6.8 · MSFT −5.0 · SHOP −2.4
9 Feb 11, 2026−6.09%
Before our storiesgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
9Feb 11, 2026−6.09%
Before our stories
−2.5% did not move with itSHOP −6.7 · PLTR −2.8 · MSFT −2.1 · ORCL −1.7
10 Feb 12, 2026−8.77%
Before our storiesgroup −2.7%, did not move with it
10Feb 12, 2026−8.77%
Before our stories
−2.7% did not move with itSHOP −6.8 · PLTR −4.8 · MSFT −0.6 · ORCL −0.4
11 Feb 18, 2026+5.49%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
11Feb 18, 2026+5.49%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itSHOP +7.1 · PLTR +1.8 · ORCL +1.4 · MSFT +0.7
12 Feb 26, 2026+4.99%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
12Feb 26, 2026+4.99%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itSHOP +4.7 · ORCL +1.6 · PLTR +1.3 · MSFT +0.3
13 Feb 27, 2026+16.82%
Resultsgroup −2.8%, did not move with it
13Feb 27, 2026+16.82%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 26 results filing
−2.8% did not move with itPLTR +0.9 · MSFT −2.2 · ORCL −3.3 · SHOP −4.1
14 Mar 12, 2026−7.32%
Before our storiesgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
14Mar 12, 2026−7.32%
Before our stories
−1.6% did not move with itSHOP −2.6 · ORCL −2.4 · MSFT −0.8 · PLTR +1.3
15 Mar 27, 2026−5.71%
Before our storiesgroup −2.8%, did not move with it
15Mar 27, 2026−5.71%
Before our stories
−2.8% did not move with itSHOP −3.1 · PLTR −3.0 · MSFT −2.5 · ORCL −2.2
16 Mar 31, 2026+5.52%
Before our storiesgroup +6.1%, moved with XYZ
16Mar 31, 2026+5.52%
Before our stories
+6.1% moved with XYZPLTR +6.3 · SHOP +6.1 · ORCL +6.0 · MSFT +3.1
17 May 8, 2026+6.72%
Resultsgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
17May 8, 2026+6.72%
ResultsFirst close after the May 7 results filing
−0.3% did not move with itORCL +0.7 · PLTR +0.6 · SHOP −1.2 · MSFT −1.3
18 Jun 3, 2026−5.87%
Before our storiesgroup −4.7%, moved with XYZ
18Jun 3, 2026−5.87%
Before our stories
−4.7% moved with XYZPLTR −6.5 · ORCL −5.8 · SHOP −3.5 · MSFT −3.2
19 Jun 15, 2026+6.95%
Nothing on XYZgroup +4.3%, moved with XYZ
19Jun 15, 2026+6.95%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.3% moved with XYZPLTR +5.3 · ORCL +4.6 · SHOP +3.9 · MSFT +2.3
20 Jun 26, 2026+5.05%
Nothing on XYZgroup +5.0%, moved with XYZ
20Jun 26, 2026+5.05%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.0% moved with XYZMSFT +5.7 · PLTR +5.3 · SHOP +4.7 · ORCL −2.6
21 Jul 27, 2026+5.30%
Nothing on XYZgroup +5.6%, moved with XYZ
21Jul 27, 2026+5.30%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.6% moved with XYZSHOP +11.5 · PLTR +7.0 · ORCL +4.3 · MSFT +1.9
22 Aug 6, 2026−6.15%
Resultsgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
22Aug 6, 2026−6.15%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 5 results filing
+0.8% did not move with itPLTR −1.6 · ORCL −0.6 · SHOP +2.2 · MSFT +2.5
23 Aug 13, 2026+6.14%
Nothing on XYZgroup +3.3%, moved with XYZ
23Aug 13, 2026+6.14%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% moved with XYZSHOP +5.4 · PLTR +4.7 · ORCL +1.9 · MSFT +0.9
24 Sep 1, 2026−5.05%
Nothing on XYZgroup −4.3%, moved with XYZ
24Sep 1, 2026−5.05%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.3% moved with XYZORCL −5.2 · SHOP −5.1 · PLTR −3.5 · MSFT −1.2
25 Sep 2, 2026+5.88%
Nothing on XYZgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
25Sep 2, 2026+5.88%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.3% did not move with itORCL +3.1 · SHOP +1.5 · MSFT −0.8 · PLTR −5.8
26 Oct 15, 2026+5.25%
Nothing on XYZgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
26Oct 15, 2026+5.25%
Nothing on XYZNo XYZ story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% did not move with itSHOP +3.3 · ORCL +3.0 · MSFT +1.1 · PLTR −0.2
27 Nov 4, 2026+15.30%
Results · 1 storygroup +2.4%, did not move with it
27Nov 4, 2026+15.30%
Results · 1 storyFirst close after the Nov 3 results filing
+2.4% did not move with itSHOP +7.3 · MSFT +6.7 · ORCL −1.9 · PLTR −2.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MSFT, PLTR, ORCL and SHOP that day, the largest companies in XYZ’s SEC industry; “moved with XYZ” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). XYZ reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 6, 2025

day 1−7.73%day 6−14.73%

Reported Feb 26, 2026

day 1+16.82%day 6+21.64%

Reported May 7, 2026

day 1+6.72%day 6+0.31%

Reported Aug 5, 2026

day 1−6.15%day 6−1.32%

Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: +10.58%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is XYZ’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

XYZ against four software peers, a year at 100

XYZ is up 28.4% in a year. All four did less: Microsoft (+11.9%), Shopify (−5.7%), Palantir (−12.9%) and Oracle (−48.3%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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XYZ +28.4%. Microsoft +11.9%, Shopify −5.7%, Palantir −12.9%, Oracle −48.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in XYZ’s SEC industry (Services-Prepackaged Software) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MSFT	Microsoft	$4.13T	−3.58%
PLTR	Palantir	$440.4B	−9.73%
ORCL	Oracle	$356.4B	−6.93%
SHOP	Shopify	$199.7B	−6.06%
CRM	Salesforce	$186.0B	−2.07%
NOW	ServiceNow	$112.5B	−5.93%
SNOW	Snowflake	$100.5B	−7.25%
ADBE	Adobe	$98.8B	−0.82%