Pentagon chief says U.S. ready to restart strikes on Iran if no deal - Reuters
Pentagon chief has signaled the U.S. is prepared to resume military strikes on Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached, escalating the diplomatic standoff. This reopens the Middle East risk-premium trade — oil supply disruption fears spike, defense names bid, and risk-off pressure hits equities.
Basket · 3M · rebased+0.3%
USO+48.1%XOM-5.8%CVX-3.8%LMT-21.6%RTX-15.3%Avg
The Angle
↑ LONG+5% target-3% stoptactical / 1-2 weeks
Long USO and defense names (LMT, RTX) into Iran escalation risk — oil supply premium and defense spending bid both have room if diplomacy breaks down.No deal deadline clarity; size small, event-driven.
Gap and American Eagle shares both get crushed — and neither retailer is blaming the economy
Gap and American Eagle both posted disappointing earnings, sending shares lower, while management explicitly avoided blaming the macro environment — pointing to company-specific execution failures. AEO is down ~12% on the day with B of A maintaining Underperform and cutting its target to $16, right at current levels, leaving almost no upside buffer and a wall of analyst skepticism.
Basket · 3M · rebased · preview+1.5%
GPS+1.5%Avg
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-15% target+8% stop3-5 weeks
Short AEO into continued analyst capitulation — consensus is 1B/13H/6S/1SS, targets are being cut to current price, and the self-inflicted narrative removes macro-recovery as a near-term catalyst.Targets converging on spot; no near-term catalyst to reverse.
MarketWatchCloud · Enterprise SaaSFri · 21:24
ServiceNow’s stock soars to a historic month as AI fears fade across software
ServiceNow surged 40%+ this month in a broad enterprise software relief rally as AI-disruption fears recede, with NOW up 14.4% today alone. The violent re-rating creates a tricky setup: momentum is real but the stock is now extended, insiders are selling, and consensus was already skewed heavily bullish before the run.
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+4% stop1-2 weeks tactical
Fade the NOW overshoot short-term — insider selling, no fresh price targets, and a 40% monthly rip argue for a mean-reversion pullback to the $110-115 range before re-entry.4 sellers vs 0 buyers inside; no fresh PT anchors.
Dell’s stunning 33% stock rally gave a big boost to shares of other server makers
Dell's blowout earnings revealed surging AI server demand driving a 33% single-day rally, lifting the broader server ecosystem including HPE double-digits. The setup now is whether HPE — still largely a 'Hold' consensus name — can close the gap as AI infrastructure spending broadens beyond hyperscalers.
Basket · 3M · rebased+174.1%
DELL+174.1%Avg
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↔ PAIR+12% target-6% stop3-6 weeks, into HPE's next earnings print
Fade DELL's post-earnings spike and rotate into HPE long on a relative-value play — DELL's 33% gap is priced for perfection while HPE's 12% sympathy move leaves more room to re-rate if it can validate its own AI server pipeline.HPE earnings catalyst needed to sustain; watch insider sales.
One of the hottest crypto products in the world is finally coming to the U.S.
The CFTC has granted Kalshi and Coinbase permission to offer perpetual futures to U.S. investors — a product category previously unavailable domestically that commands massive global volume. This opens a new revenue stream for COIN but the bullish catalyst is partially offset by heavy insider selling and a regulatory headache (Dimon/Armstrong crypto bill fight) that could cloud the legislative backdrop.
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+4% stop1-2 weeks
Fade the COIN pop — insider selling into a regulatory headline with a mixed consensus and lingering legislative risk makes this a sell-the-news setup above $190.10 insider sellers, 0 buyers; perp futures priced in today.
‘The banks will not accept it’: Dimon escalates battle over stablecoin rewards in CLARITY Act debate
Jamie Dimon publicly attacked Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and warned the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions are a dealbreaker for banks, escalating a high-stakes legislative fight in Washington. The clash sets up a binary outcome for COIN: passage of a crypto-friendly bill is a clear tailwind, while bank-lobby-driven dilution or defeat of the Act removes a key re-rating catalyst.
Basket · 3M · rebased+0.6%
JPM+0.6%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+5% stop2-4 weeks or until legislative clarity
Fade COIN's regulatory-headline pop — 10 insider sells in 30 days, mixed consensus (12H / 2SS), and Dimon's bank lobby can gut the yield provisions, removing the core bull case.Binary bill risk; insiders selling into strength
Oil prices tumble nearly 20% in May — the biggest monthly drop since 2020. Here’s what’s next.
Oil prices dropped nearly 20% in May — the largest monthly decline since the COVID crash in 2020 — driven by optimism around a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could flood the market with additional supply. If a deal materializes and Iranian barrels return to market, OPEC+ discipline faces a structural test, extending the bear case for crude into Q3.
Basket · 3M · rebased+13.5%
USO+48.1%XLE-1.3%OXY+4.5%CVX-3.8%MRO+20.0%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-10% target+5% stop4-8 weeks, into deal confirmation or breakdown
Short XLE or long-dated put spreads on OXY/MRO into a confirmed U.S.-Iran deal — high-beta E&Ps face further 8-12% downside if Iranian supply hits market in Q3.No ticker enrichment; geopolitical deal risk is key variable.
BBC BusinessConsumer · Media⚡ BreakingFri · 19:29
Universal rejects billionaire Bill Ackman's takeover bid
Universal Music Group has formally rejected Pershing Square's takeover bid, stating the offer fundamentally undervalues the business. The rejection sets up a public standoff between a high-profile activist billionaire and a deeply embedded music IP empire, potentially drawing counter-bidders or forcing Ackman to raise his offer.
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↑ LONG+8% target-5% stop2-6 weeks while bid narrative plays out
Long UMG on takeover floor: Ackman's public bid creates a valuation anchor — rejection signals management sees meaningful upside, watch for revised offer or competing interest.Bid premium floor in place; watch for revised offer timeline.
MarketWatchTech · Servers / AI Infrastructure⚡ BreakingFri · 18:17
Dell’s stunning 30% stock rally is giving a big boost to shares of other server makers
Dell's blowout AI-driven earnings sparked a 30%+ gap-up, lifting sympathetic moves in HPE (+12%) and IBM (+11%) as the market reprices old-school server hardware as AI infrastructure plays. The setup creates a mean-reversion risk on the sympathy names while DELL itself faces the classic post-gap digestion problem.
Basket · 3M · rebased+59.4%
HPE+94.5%IBM+24.4%Avg
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+5% stop1-2 weeks
Fade the sympathy rally in HPE short — consensus is only Hold-heavy, insiders were selling 30 days out, and the stock rode DELL's coattails without a fundamental catalyst of its own.Stop above today's high; target 1-2 week fade.
Oil prices tumble 20% in May — the biggest monthly drop since 2020. Here’s what’s next.
Crude oil posted its steepest monthly decline since 2020, falling over 20% in May amid optimism around a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could return significant Iranian barrels to global markets. If a deal materializes, the structural supply overhang could pressure upstream E&P names for weeks; if talks collapse, the reversal trade is violent.
Basket · 3M · rebased+8.0%
USO+48.1%XLE-1.3%XOP+2.8%CVX-3.8%XOM-5.8%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+5% stop2-4 weeks, or until Iran deal status clarifies
Stay short high-beta E&Ps via XOP into any Iran deal confirmation — supply shock thesis isn't priced out yet.No deal signed yet; binary geopolitical risk on both sides.
ServiceNow’s stock soars toward historic month as AI fears fade across software
ServiceNow is up ~40% this month and 14% today alone, riding an enterprise AI relief rally catalyzed by Dell's blowout earnings. The move puts NOW at historically stretched levels with insiders actively selling into strength, raising mean-reversion risk even as the broader software sector re-rates higher.
Basket · 3M · rebased+174.1%
DELL+174.1%Avg
0 reads·0 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-8% target+4% stop1-2 weeks tactical
Fade NOW near-term as insiders sell into a 40%-in-one-month rip — wait for a pullback to re-enter the AI software theme at better risk/reward.4 insiders selling; historically stretched; no price target published.
Trump to decide imminently on Iran deal, says Hormuz Strait must open - Reuters
Trump says he will decide imminently on an Iran nuclear deal and insists the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, signaling a potential de-escalation of Iran sanctions risk. A deal that unlocks Iranian oil supply would pressure crude prices while reducing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy names and defense plays.
Basket · 3M · rebased+0.3%
USO+48.1%XOM-5.8%CVX-3.8%LMT-21.6%RTX-15.3%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-4% target+3% stop1-2 weeks into deal resolution
Short USO / fade energy longs XOM CVX on Iran deal-headline risk — incremental supply narrative pressures crude near-term.Binary catalyst; no deal = sharp reversal, size small.
S.E.C. Proposes to Kill Climate Change Disclosure Rule
The SEC is proposing to rescind its climate disclosure rule, which would have required all public companies to report material climate-related risks. This removes a compliance overhang for fossil fuel producers and heavy emitters while undermining ESG-focused funds that priced in mandatory standardized data.
Basket · 3M · rebased+1.7%
XLE-1.3%XOP+2.8%ESGU+10.7%KMI-8.3%OXY+4.5%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↔ PAIR+4% target-3% stop2-4 weeks
Long XLE / short ESGU as SEC climate rule rollback removes disclosure overhang on emitters and strips a core catalyst from ESG inflows.No catalyst date; headline-driven, watch for formal SEC vote.
Oil prices slide as Trump says the U.S. is close to an Iran deal
Trump signaled the U.S. is close to an Iran nuclear deal, sending oil prices lower on the prospect of additional Iranian crude supply re-entering global markets. If a deal materializes, roughly 1-1.5 mb/d of Iranian oil could add to an already-softening supply picture, structurally pressuring Brent and WTI into year-end.
Basket · 3M · rebased+16.6%
USO+48.1%XLE-1.3%BNO+35.5%OXY+4.5%COP-3.6%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-5% target+3% stop1-3 weeks, into any formal deal announcement
Short USO / XLE on Iran-deal headline — incremental supply overhang hits E&P names hardest with no enrichment floor to push back.No deal signed yet; headline risk both ways.
Trump says meeting Friday to make final decision on deal with Iran - Reuters
Trump has announced a Friday meeting to make a final decision on a potential deal with Iran, signaling imminent resolution to months of nuclear negotiations. A deal would likely unlock Iranian oil supply, pressuring crude prices and creating a sharp divergence between energy bears and defense/sanctions-play bulls.
Basket · 3M · rebased+4.3%
USO+48.1%XOM-5.8%CVX-3.8%OXY+4.5%LMT-21.6%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↓ SHORT-5% target+3% stopTactical / into Friday decision, hold 1-2 weeks post-announcement📅May 23 '25
Short crude via USO into Friday's Iran deal decision — a signed agreement floods ~1M bbl/day back into the market, pressuring WTI toward $65.Binary catalyst Friday; hedge with tight stop above recent WTI highs.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warns against hiking interest rates because of inflation spike
Fed Governor Bowman warns that hiking rates in response to the current inflation spike — driven by energy and tariffs — would be ineffective and potentially harmful. This dovish signal from a Fed board member reduces near-term rate-hike probability and supports rate-sensitive assets while pressuring the dollar.
Basket · 3M · rebased-2.3%
TLT-4.3%IEF-2.5%UUP+1.2%XLU-6.2%XLRE+0.2%Avg
0 reads·3 theses
Angle
↑ LONG+3% target-2% stop4-8 weeks, into next FOMC meeting
Fade rate-hike risk: go long TLT and rate-sensitive proxies (XLU, XLRE) as Bowman's dovish dissent reduces the tail risk of a panic hike into supply-driven inflation.No catalyst date; watch FOMC meeting cadence for entry timing.
What American crypto asset perpetuals mean for the future of crypto
CFTC Chairman Selig signals that U.S.-regulated crypto perpetual futures markets are launching today, bringing a major product class onshore for the first time. This legitimizes the asset class institutionally, potentially driving volume from offshore venues to regulated U.S. platforms and acting as a structural tailwind for crypto-native equities and spot prices.
Basket · 3M · rebased+3.8%
COIN+2.0%HOOD+19.7%CME-16.2%BTC-USD+9.7%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↑ LONG+8% target-6% stop2-4 weeks
Long COIN as the primary U.S. beneficiary of onshore crypto perps adoption — new regulated product flow funnels directly to its platform and boosts fee revenue.No enrichment data; size small, watch volume confirmation.
U.S. CFTC opens crypto 'perp' door with first approval at Kalshi
The CFTC has granted its first approval for crypto perpetual futures contracts to Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, establishing a regulatory framework for U.S. firms to offer perp products. This opens the door for major crypto exchanges and derivatives platforms to pursue similar approvals, potentially expanding U.S. retail and institutional access to the most liquid crypto derivative product globally.
Basket · 3M · rebased-7.1%
COIN+2.0%CME-16.2%Avg
0 reads·1 theses
Angle
↑ LONG+8% target-6% stop3-6 weeks
Long COIN as CFTC perp approval unlocks a massive new revenue stream for U.S.-regulated crypto exchanges chasing the dominant global derivatives product.No catalyst date; execution risk on regulatory timeline.