Capital One Financial COF

NYSE · National Commercial Banks · $126.6B

$203.84−1.20%Nov 5 close · Databento

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COF Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $203.841D −1.20%3M −6.91%SMA20 $203.01SMA50 $203.93RSI(14) 50.2

203.84

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 50.2

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$126.6B

EV / True FCF4.3x

Revenue$53.4B +36.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$25.4B +54.2%

Rule of 4085.5%

True FCF Yield20.0%

EPS, diluted$4.03 −65.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$126.6B

Enterprise Value$108.4B

EV / True FCF4.27

EV / FCF4.15

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales2.03

P / E (GAAP)51.60

P / FCF4.84

P / Oper. CF4.57

P / Book1.11

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield20.0%

FCF Yield20.7%

Owner Earn. Yield4.2%

Earnings Yield1.9%

Shareholder Yield+3.8%

Buyback Yield3.2%

Dividend Yield0.78%

Dividend / sh$1.60

Payout Ratio62%

FCF / sh$43.46

EPS (diluted)$4.03

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4085.5%

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)27.4%

GP / Assets—

ROE2.2%

ROA0.4%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin4.6%

FCF Margin48.9%

True FCF Margin47.5%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion1066%

Accrual Ratio−3.8%

SBC % of FCF3.0%

SBC % of Rev1.5%

Reinvest. Rate6%

Sales Growth Y/Y+36.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR+16.0%

EPS Growth Y/Y−65.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y+54.2%

FCF 3Y CAGR+26.6%

Share Change Y/Y+41.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$53.4B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$2.5B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$25.4B

Cash & Equiv$62.1B

Total Debt$43.9B

Net Cash (Debt)$18.2B

Net Cash % MCap+14.4%

Debt / FCF (yrs)1.7y

Current Ratio—601.53M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−2.35%

Perf Month+4.05%

Perf Quarter−6.39%

Perf Half Y+5.84%

Perf YTD−0.91%

SMA 20 Dist+0.41%$203.01

SMA 50 Dist−0.04%$203.93

SMA 100 Dist−1.43%$206.79

Window High−10.34%$227.34

Window Low+14.76%$177.62

RSI (14) · Vol50.225%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of COF revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$51.0B ($95.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$2.5B ($4.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$2.5B (4.6% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$27.7B(51.9% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$1.6B(3.0% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$26.1B(48.9% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$776.0M(3.0% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$25.4B(47.5% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$30.4B	$34.3B	$36.8B	$39.1B	$53.4B	+36.6%	+15.1%
Interest Expense	$1.6B	$4.1B	$12.7B	—	$12.7B	—	+67.9%
Income Tax Expense	$3.4B	$1.9B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$193.0M	−83.4%	−51.2%
GAAP Net Income	$12.4B	$7.4B	$4.9B	$4.8B	$2.5B	−48.4%	−33.3%
Diluted EPS	$26.94	$17.91	$11.95	$11.59	$4.03	−65.2%	−37.8%
Diluted Shares	444.2M	393.2M	383.4M	383.6M	541.3M	+41.1%	+5.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$22.1B	$31.3B	$43.8B	$43.7B	$62.1B	+42.2%	+29.5%
Total Assets	$432.4B	$455.2B	$478.5B	$490.1B	$669.0B	+36.5%	+11.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$43.9B	$43.9B	$43.9B	$43.9B	$43.9B	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Liabilities	$371.4B	$402.7B	$420.4B	$429.4B	$555.4B	+29.4%	+10.6%
Stockholders' Equity	$61.0B	$52.6B	$58.1B	$60.8B	$113.6B	+86.9%	+16.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-21.8B	$-12.6B	$-123.0M	$-207.0M	$18.2B	+8899.5%	—
Invested Capital	$82.9B	$65.2B	$58.2B	$61.0B	$95.4B	+56.4%	+3.6%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$12.3B	$13.8B	$20.6B	$18.2B	$27.7B	+52.6%	+22.5%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$3.5B	$3.2B	$3.2B	$3.2B	$5.3B	+62.5%	+10.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$331.0M	$314.0M	$513.0M	$569.0M	$776.0M	+36.4%	+23.7%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$698.0M	$934.0M	$961.0M	$1.2B	$1.6B	+31.1%	+22.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$11.6B	$12.9B	$19.6B	$17.0B	$26.1B	+54.2%	+22.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$11.3B	$12.6B	$19.1B	$16.4B	$25.4B	+54.8%	+22.5%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$7.6B	$4.9B	$718.0M	$734.0M	$4.1B	+458.4%	−14.3%
Dividends Paid	$1.1B	$950.0M	$931.0M	$932.0M	$1.5B	+62.7%	+7.2%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what COF did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named COF yet.

What happened · big days

14 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.52% from the one before, three times COF’s median day (1.17%). On 5 of the 14, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.52%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCOFWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 17, 2025−4.80%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 17, 2025−4.80%
Before our stories
−2.0% did not move with itBAC −2.1 · C −2.1 · WFC −1.9 · JPM −1.1
2 Jan 12, 2026−6.42%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
2Jan 12, 2026−6.42%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itC −3.0 · JPM −1.4 · BAC −1.2 · WFC −1.0
3 Jan 20, 2026−4.36%
Before our storiesgroup −2.5%, moved with COF
3Jan 20, 2026−4.36%
Before our stories
−2.5% moved with COFC −4.4 · JPM −3.1 · WFC −1.9 · BAC −1.6
4 Jan 23, 2026−7.56%
Resultsgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
4Jan 23, 2026−7.56%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 22 results filing
−1.6% did not move with itJPM −1.9 · C −1.8 · BAC −1.4 · WFC −1.2
5 Feb 5, 2026−3.78%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
5Feb 5, 2026−3.78%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itJPM −2.2 · C −1.4 · WFC −1.2 · BAC −0.8
6 Feb 23, 2026−8.84%
Before our storiesgroup −4.1%, did not move with it
6Feb 23, 2026−8.84%
Before our stories
−4.1% did not move with itC −4.5 · JPM −4.2 · WFC −4.0 · BAC −3.8
7 Feb 25, 2026+4.70%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, moved with COF
7Feb 25, 2026+4.70%
Before our stories
+2.6% moved with COFC +4.4 · WFC +2.6 · BAC +2.5 · JPM +2.0
8 Feb 27, 2026−6.15%
Before our storiesgroup −4.9%, moved with COF
8Feb 27, 2026−6.15%
Before our stories
−4.9% moved with COFWFC −5.6 · C −5.2 · BAC −4.7 · JPM −1.9
9 Apr 8, 2026+6.24%
Before our storiesgroup +3.5%, moved with COF
9Apr 8, 2026+6.24%
Before our stories
+3.5% moved with COFC +5.4 · WFC +3.6 · JPM +3.5 · BAC +3.2
10 Jun 15, 2026+5.35%
Nothing on COFgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
10Jun 15, 2026+5.35%
Nothing on COFNo COF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itC +1.0 · BAC −0.3 · JPM −0.4 · WFC −0.7
11 Jul 8, 2026−5.39%
Nothing on COFgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
11Jul 8, 2026−5.39%
Nothing on COFNo COF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% did not move with itBAC −2.6 · JPM −2.5 · C −2.4 · WFC −1.9
12 Jul 9, 2026+4.25%
Nothing on COFgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
12Jul 9, 2026+4.25%
Nothing on COFNo COF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.6% did not move with itBAC +1.6 · C +1.6 · WFC +1.6 · JPM +1.5
13 Aug 3, 2026+4.15%
Nothing on COFgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
13Aug 3, 2026+4.15%
Nothing on COFNo COF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.8% did not move with itWFC +1.7 · BAC +0.9 · C +0.8 · JPM +0.2
14 Aug 20, 2026−3.74%
Nothing on COFgroup −2.3%, moved with COF
14Aug 20, 2026−3.74%
Nothing on COFNo COF story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.3% moved with COFWFC −2.6 · C −2.4 · BAC −2.1 · JPM −1.6

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of JPM, BAC, WFC and C that day, the largest companies in COF’s SEC industry; “moved with COF” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). COF reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 22, 2026

day 1−7.56%day 6−6.87%

Reported Apr 21, 2026

day 1−1.52%day 6−5.76%

Reported Jul 21, 2026

day 1−2.36%day 6+1.21%

Reported Oct 20, 2026

day 1+2.53%day 6+1.65%

Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 20 report: +1.13%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is COF’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

COF against four bank peers, a year at 100

COF is down 6.4% in a year. Citigroup is up 23.8%, JPMorgan Chase 12.1%, Wells Fargo 1.6% and Bank of America is down 3.0%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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COF −6.4%. Citigroup +23.8%, JPMorgan Chase +12.1%, Wells Fargo +1.6%, Bank of America −3.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in COF’s SEC industry (National Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

JPM	JPMorgan Chase	$936.0B	−4.19%
BAC	Bank of America	$361.0B	−3.62%
WFC	Wells Fargo	$264.4B	−3.01%
C	Citigroup	$218.2B	−5.04%
USB	US Bancorp de	$95.1B	−2.10%
PNC	PNC Financial Services	$93.1B	−2.87%
TFC	Truist Financial	$62.1B	−2.02%
HBAN	Huntington Bancshares	$32.4B	−2.80%