HBAN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $15.611D −2.80%3M −11.31%SMA20 $15.60SMA50 $15.87RSI(14) 47.2
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$32.4B
EV / True FCF17.2x
Revenue$10.3B +3.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.1B +30.8%
Rule of 4025.4%
True FCF Yield6.5%
EPS, diluted$1.39 +13.9%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$32.4B
Enterprise Value$36.2B
EV / True FCF17.21
EV / FCF16.33
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales3.51
P / E (GAAP)14.68
P / FCF14.65
P / Oper. CF13.07
P / Book1.33
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield6.5%
FCF Yield6.8%
Owner Earn. Yield7.6%
Earnings Yield6.8%
Shareholder Yield+2.5%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield3.97%
Dividend / sh$0.62
Payout Ratio41%
FCF / sh$1.10
EPS (diluted)$1.39
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4025.4%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)7.9%
GP / Assets—
ROE9.1%
ROA1.0%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin—
Net Margin21.4%
FCF Margin21.5%
True FCF Margin20.4%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion100%
Accrual Ratio−0.1%
SBC % of FCF5.1%
SBC % of Rev1.1%
Reinvest. Rate11%
Sales Growth Y/Y+3.9%
Sales 3Y CAGR+20.0%
EPS Growth Y/Y+13.9%
FCF Growth Y/Y+30.8%
FCF 3Y CAGR−16.6%
Share Change Y/Y+1.9%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$10.3B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)—
GAAP Net Income$2.2B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.1B
Cash & Equiv$13.5B
Total Debt$17.2B
Net Cash (Debt)$-3.7B
Net Cash % MCap−11.5%
Debt / FCF (yrs)7.8y
Current Ratio—2.02B sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−2.25%
Perf Month+2.90%
Perf Quarter−11.05%
Perf Half Y−3.58%
Perf YTD−8.50%
SMA 20 Dist+0.07%$15.60
SMA 50 Dist−1.64%$15.87
SMA 100 Dist−6.66%$16.72
Window High−15.89%$18.56
Window Low+3.38%$15.10
RSI (14) · Vol47.219%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of HBAN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$4.2B
$6.0B
$8.9B
$9.9B
$10.3B
+3.9%
+25.2%
Interest Expense
$89.0M
$696.0M
$3.5B
—
$3.5B
—
+150.0%
Income Tax Expense
$294.0M
$515.0M
$413.0M
$443.0M
$459.0M
+3.6%
+11.8%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$1.3B
$2.2B
$2.0B
$1.9B
$2.2B
+14.0%
+14.3%
Diluted EPS ▸
$0.90
$1.45
$1.24
$1.22
$1.39
+13.9%
+11.5%
Diluted Shares
1.29B
1.47B
1.47B
1.48B
1.50B
+1.9%
+4.0%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$5.5B
$6.7B
$10.1B
$12.8B
$13.5B
+5.0%
+25.0%
Total Assets
$174.1B
$182.9B
$189.4B
$204.2B
$225.1B
+10.2%
+6.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$7.1B
$9.7B
$12.4B
$16.4B
$17.2B
+5.2%
+24.8%
Total Liabilities
$154.7B
$165.1B
$170.0B
$184.4B
$200.7B
+8.8%
+6.7%
Stockholders' Equity
$19.3B
$17.8B
$19.4B
$19.8B
$24.4B
+23.2%
+6.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-1.6B
$-3.0B
$-2.3B
$-3.5B
$-3.7B
−5.6%
—
Invested Capital
$20.9B
$20.8B
$21.7B
$23.3B
$28.1B
+20.6%
+7.7%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$2.1B
$4.0B
$2.7B
$1.8B
$2.5B
+35.2%
+4.7%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$391.0M
$484.0M
$798.0M
$622.0M
$622.0M
+0.0%
+12.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$129.0M
$105.0M
$97.0M
$106.0M
$113.0M
+6.6%
−3.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$247.0M
$214.0M
$140.0M
$143.0M
$267.0M
+86.7%
+2.0%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$1.8B
$3.8B
$2.5B
$1.7B
$2.2B
+30.8%
+5.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$1.7B
$3.7B
$2.4B
$1.6B
$2.1B
+32.5%
+5.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$650.0M
$0
$0
—
$0
—
—
Dividends Paid
$750.0M
$897.0M
$900.0M
$903.0M
$908.0M
+0.6%
+4.9%
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
17 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 2.94% from the one before, three times HBAN’s median day (0.98%). On 10 of the 17, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.94%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayHBANWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 21, 2025+3.66%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 21, 2025+3.66%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itBAC +1.1 · C +1.1 · WFC +0.9 · JPM −0.1
2 Dec 10, 2025+3.35%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, moved with HBAN
2Dec 10, 2025+3.35%
Before our stories
+1.8% moved with HBANJPM +3.2 · WFC +2.0 · C +1.5 · BAC +1.0
3 Jan 21, 2026+4.34%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
3Jan 21, 2026+4.34%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itC +0.9 · BAC −0.1 · JPM −0.2 · WFC −0.6
4 Jan 22, 2026−6.02%
Resultsgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
4Jan 22, 2026−6.02%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 22 results filing
+1.2% did not move with itJPM +0.5 · BAC +0.7 · C +1.6 · WFC +2.2
5 Feb 4, 2026+3.43%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
5Feb 4, 2026+3.43%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itBAC +1.7 · WFC +0.9 · JPM +0.8 · C −0.2
6 Feb 11, 2026−3.45%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, moved with HBAN
6Feb 11, 2026−3.45%
Before our stories
−3.0% moved with HBANC −3.9 · WFC −3.2 · BAC −2.8 · JPM −2.3
7 Feb 12, 2026−3.35%
Before our storiesgroup −2.8%, moved with HBAN
7Feb 12, 2026−3.35%
Before our stories
−2.8% moved with HBANC −5.3 · WFC −3.0 · JPM −2.6 · BAC −2.5
8 Feb 23, 2026−5.16%
Before our storiesgroup −4.1%, moved with HBAN
8Feb 23, 2026−5.16%
Before our stories
−4.1% moved with HBANC −4.5 · JPM −4.2 · WFC −4.0 · BAC −3.8
9 Feb 27, 2026−4.22%
Before our storiesgroup −4.9%, moved with HBAN
9Feb 27, 2026−4.22%
Before our stories
−4.9% moved with HBANWFC −5.6 · C −5.2 · BAC −4.7 · JPM −1.9
10 Mar 31, 2026+4.19%
Before our storiesgroup +3.7%, moved with HBAN
10Mar 31, 2026+4.19%
Before our stories
+3.7% moved with HBANC +5.7 · JPM +3.7 · WFC +3.7 · BAC +3.2
11 Apr 8, 2026+2.96%
Before our storiesgroup +3.5%, moved with HBAN
11Apr 8, 2026+2.96%
Before our stories
+3.5% moved with HBANC +5.4 · WFC +3.6 · JPM +3.5 · BAC +3.2
12 May 13, 2026−3.09%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, moved with HBAN
12May 13, 2026−3.09%
Before our stories
−1.9% moved with HBANWFC −2.2 · BAC −1.9 · C −1.9 · JPM −1.5
13 Jun 1, 2026−3.24%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
13Jun 1, 2026−3.24%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itJPM −0.9 · WFC −0.5 · BAC −0.2 · C +2.5
14 Jun 4, 2026+3.77%
Before our storiesgroup +3.6%, moved with HBAN
14Jun 4, 2026+3.77%
Before our stories
+3.6% moved with HBANC +4.0 · WFC +3.7 · BAC +3.4 · JPM +3.3
15 Jul 8, 2026−3.05%
Nothing on HBANgroup −2.5%, moved with HBAN
15Jul 8, 2026−3.05%
Nothing on HBANNo HBAN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with HBANBAC −2.6 · JPM −2.5 · C −2.4 · WFC −1.9
16 Jul 23, 2026−4.76%
Resultsgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
16Jul 23, 2026−4.76%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 23 results filing
−0.3% did not move with itBAC −0.6 · C −0.3 · WFC −0.3 · JPM +0.5
−2.5% did not move with itWFC −3.0 · BAC −2.7 · C −2.4 · JPM −1.0
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of JPM, BAC, WFC and C that day, the largest companies in HBAN’s SEC industry; “moved with HBAN” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). HBAN reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Jan 22, 2026
day 1−6.02%day 6−7.88%
Reported Apr 23, 2026
day 1+0.06%day 6−0.36%
Reported Jul 23, 2026
day 1−4.76%day 6−6.51%
Reported Oct 22, 2026
day 1−0.38%day 6+1.59%
Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 22 report: −0.70%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is HBAN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
HBAN against four bank peers, a year at 100
HBAN is down 0.5% in a year. Citigroup is up 23.8%, JPMorgan Chase 12.1% and Wells Fargo 1.6%. Of these four, only Bank of America (−3.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in HBAN’s SEC industry (National Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.