TFC Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $49.841D −2.02%3M −3.90%SMA20 $48.02SMA50 $48.35RSI(14) 58.0
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$62.1B
EV / True FCF13.9x
Revenue$24.5B −2.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.9B +41.2%
Rule of 4019.0%
True FCF Yield7.8%
EPS, diluted$3.82 +13.7%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$62.1B
Enterprise Value$67.7B
EV / True FCF13.94
EV / FCF13.09
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales2.76
P / E (GAAP)11.71
P / FCF12.01
P / Oper. CF10.83
P / Book0.95
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield7.8%
FCF Yield8.3%
Owner Earn. Yield7.1%
Earnings Yield8.5%
Shareholder Yield+7.8%
Buyback Yield4.0%
Dividend Yield4.17%
Dividend / sh$2.08
Payout Ratio50%
FCF / sh$4.32
EPS (diluted)$3.82
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4019.0%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)7.3%
GP / Assets—
ROE8.1%
ROA1.0%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin—
Net Margin21.6%
FCF Margin21.1%
True FCF Margin19.8%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion98%
Accrual Ratio−0.1%
SBC % of FCF6.1%
SBC % of Rev1.3%
Reinvest. Rate10%
Sales Growth Y/Y−2.1%
Sales 3Y CAGR+13.8%
EPS Growth Y/Y+13.7%
FCF Growth Y/Y+41.2%
FCF 3Y CAGR+101.0%
Share Change Y/Y−2.1%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$24.5B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)—
GAAP Net Income$5.3B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.9B
Cash & Equiv$36.4B
Total Debt$42.0B
Net Cash (Debt)$-5.6B
Net Cash % MCap−9.0%
Debt / FCF (yrs)8.1y
Current Ratio—1.20B sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week+1.05%
Perf Month+9.35%
Perf Quarter−4.79%
Perf Half Y+0.20%
Perf YTD−1.97%
SMA 20 Dist+3.79%$48.02
SMA 50 Dist+3.08%$48.35
SMA 100 Dist−0.01%$49.85
Window High−6.40%$53.25
Window Low+9.37%$45.57
RSI (14) · Vol58.025%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of TFC revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$13.8B
$16.6B
$24.5B
$25.1B
$24.5B
−2.1%
+15.5%
Interest Expense
$768.0M
$2.3B
$9.9B
—
$9.9B
—
+89.6%
Income Tax Expense
$1.4B
$1.3B
$738.0M
$-556.0M
$1.0B
+287.4%
−7.2%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$6.4B
$6.3B
$-1.0B
$4.8B
$5.3B
+9.6%
−4.7%
Diluted EPS ▸
$4.47
$4.43
$-1.09
$3.36
$3.82
+13.7%
−3.9%
Diluted Shares
1.35B
1.34B
1.33B
1.33B
1.30B
−2.1%
−0.9%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$20.3B
$21.4B
$30.6B
$39.8B
$36.4B
−8.5%
+15.7%
Total Assets
$541.2B
$555.3B
$535.3B
$531.2B
$547.5B
+3.1%
+0.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$35.9B
$43.2B
$38.9B
$35.0B
$42.0B
+20.0%
+4.0%
Total Liabilities
$472.0B
$494.7B
$476.1B
$467.5B
$482.3B
+3.2%
+0.5%
Stockholders' Equity
$69.3B
$60.5B
$59.3B
$63.7B
$65.2B
+2.4%
−1.5%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-15.6B
$-21.8B
$-8.3B
$4.8B
$-5.6B
−216.1%
—
Invested Capital
$84.9B
$82.3B
$67.5B
$58.9B
$70.8B
+20.2%
−4.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$7.9B
$11.1B
$8.6B
$2.2B
$5.7B
+165.2%
−7.7%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$259.0M
$261.0M
$298.0M
$292.0M
$317.0M
+8.6%
+5.2%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$442.0M
$564.0M
—
—
$564.0M
—
+6.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$7.5B
$10.5B
—
—
$5.2B
—
−8.7%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$7.2B
$10.3B
—
—
$4.9B
—
−9.3%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$1.6B
$250.0M
$0
$1.0B
$2.5B
+150.0%
+11.5%
Dividends Paid
$2.5B
$2.7B
$2.8B
$2.8B
$2.7B
−3.5%
+1.8%
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what TFC did at the next close after each story
No Wire story has named TFC yet.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
17 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 2.79% from the one before, three times TFC’s median day (0.93%). On 13 of the 17, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.79%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayTFCWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Dec 10, 2025+3.42%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, moved with TFC
1Dec 10, 2025+3.42%
Before our stories
+1.8% moved with TFCJPM +3.2 · WFC +2.0 · C +1.5 · BAC +1.0
2 Feb 12, 2026−3.65%
Before our storiesgroup −2.8%, moved with TFC
2Feb 12, 2026−3.65%
Before our stories
−2.8% moved with TFCC −5.3 · WFC −3.0 · JPM −2.6 · BAC −2.5
3 Feb 23, 2026−4.26%
Before our storiesgroup −4.1%, moved with TFC
3Feb 23, 2026−4.26%
Before our stories
−4.1% moved with TFCC −4.5 · JPM −4.2 · WFC −4.0 · BAC −3.8
4 Feb 27, 2026−4.25%
Before our storiesgroup −4.9%, moved with TFC
4Feb 27, 2026−4.25%
Before our stories
−4.9% moved with TFCWFC −5.6 · C −5.2 · BAC −4.7 · JPM −1.9
5 Mar 6, 2026−4.10%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, moved with TFC
5Mar 6, 2026−4.10%
Before our stories
−2.1% moved with TFCBAC −2.4 · C −2.2 · WFC −2.1 · JPM −1.4
6 Mar 12, 2026−2.80%
Before our storiesgroup −2.5%, moved with TFC
6Mar 12, 2026−2.80%
Before our stories
−2.5% moved with TFCC −3.4 · BAC −2.9 · WFC −2.1 · JPM −1.6
7 Mar 31, 2026+2.98%
Before our storiesgroup +3.7%, moved with TFC
7Mar 31, 2026+2.98%
Before our stories
+3.7% moved with TFCC +5.7 · JPM +3.7 · WFC +3.7 · BAC +3.2
8 Apr 8, 2026+3.05%
Before our storiesgroup +3.5%, moved with TFC
8Apr 8, 2026+3.05%
Before our stories
+3.5% moved with TFCC +5.4 · WFC +3.6 · JPM +3.5 · BAC +3.2
9 May 4, 2026−2.85%
Before our storiesgroup −1.8%, moved with TFC
9May 4, 2026−2.85%
Before our stories
−1.8% moved with TFCWFC −2.0 · BAC −2.0 · JPM −1.5 · C −1.4
10 Jun 4, 2026+3.71%
Before our storiesgroup +3.6%, moved with TFC
10Jun 4, 2026+3.71%
Before our stories
+3.6% moved with TFCC +4.0 · WFC +3.7 · BAC +3.4 · JPM +3.3
11 Jun 15, 2026−6.16%
Nothing on TFCgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
11Jun 15, 2026−6.16%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itWFC −0.7 · JPM −0.4 · BAC −0.3 · C +1.0
12 Jul 8, 2026−3.25%
Nothing on TFCgroup −2.5%, moved with TFC
12Jul 8, 2026−3.25%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with TFCBAC −2.6 · JPM −2.5 · C −2.4 · WFC −1.9
13 Jul 9, 2026+3.38%
Nothing on TFCgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
13Jul 9, 2026+3.38%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.6% did not move with itBAC +1.6 · C +1.6 · WFC +1.6 · JPM +1.5
14 Jul 20, 2026−2.86%
Nothing on TFCgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
14Jul 20, 2026−2.86%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.0% did not move with itBAC −1.4 · WFC −1.4 · JPM −0.7 · C −0.5
15 Sep 16, 2026−4.00%
Nothing on TFCgroup −2.5%, moved with TFC
15Sep 16, 2026−4.00%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with TFCWFC −3.0 · BAC −2.7 · C −2.4 · JPM −1.0
16 Nov 2, 2026+2.83%
Nothing on TFCgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
16Nov 2, 2026+2.83%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.7% did not move with itWFC +3.0 · JPM +1.1 · C +0.4 · BAC −0.9
17 Nov 4, 2026+2.95%
Nothing on TFCgroup +3.1%, moved with TFC
17Nov 4, 2026+2.95%
Nothing on TFCNo TFC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.1% moved with TFCJPM +4.2 · BAC +4.0 · WFC +2.2 · C +1.6
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of JPM, BAC, WFC and C that day, the largest companies in TFC’s SEC industry; “moved with TFC” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). TFC reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Jan 21, 2026
day 1+1.79%day 6+2.38%
Reported Apr 17, 2026
day 1+2.31%day 6+2.63%
Reported Jul 17, 2026
day 1−1.41%day 6−2.80%
Reported Oct 16, 2026
day 1+1.07%day 6+4.02%
Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 16 report: +7.02%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is TFC’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
TFC against four bank peers, a year at 100
TFC is up 11.4% in a year. Citigroup is up 23.8% and JPMorgan Chase 12.1%. Of these four, Wells Fargo (+1.6%) and Bank of America (−3.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in TFC’s SEC industry (National Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.