US Bancorp \de\ USB

NYSE · National Commercial Banks · $95.1B

$59.75−2.10%Nov 5 close · Databento

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USB Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $59.751D −2.10%3M −6.92%SMA20 $58.98SMA50 $59.70RSI(14) 51.7

59.75

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 51.7

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$95.1B

Enterprise value$91.3B

Revenue$28.7B +4.4%

EPS, diluted$4.62 +21.9%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$95.1B

Enterprise Value$91.3B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales3.19

P / E (GAAP)12.56

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF11.93

P / Book1.45

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield8.0%

Shareholder Yield+3.6%

Buyback Yield0.5%

Dividend Yield3.41%

Dividend / sh$2.04

Payout Ratio42%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$4.62

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE11.5%

ROA1.1%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin26.4%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−0.1%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.8%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.6%

EPS Growth Y/Y+21.9%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−0.2%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$28.7B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$7.6B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$46.9B

Total Debt$43.1B

Net Cash (Debt)$3.8B

Net Cash % MCap+4.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio—1.56B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−1.47%

Perf Month+6.37%

Perf Quarter−6.55%

Perf Half Y+8.03%

Perf YTD+4.82%

SMA 20 Dist+1.30%$58.98

SMA 50 Dist+0.08%$59.70

SMA 100 Dist−2.30%$61.16

Window High−8.67%$65.42

Window Low+13.29%$52.74

RSI (14) · Vol51.723%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of USB revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$21.1B ($73.6 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$7.6B ($26.4 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$7.6B (26.4% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$8.0B(27.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$235.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$13.5B	$24.3B	$28.1B	$27.5B	$28.7B	+4.4%	+20.7%
Interest Expense	$993.0M	$3.2B	$12.6B	—	$12.6B	—	+88.8%
Income Tax Expense	$2.2B	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.6B	$1.9B	+21.6%	−3.1%
GAAP Net Income	$8.0B	$5.8B	$5.4B	$6.3B	$7.6B	+20.2%	−1.3%
Diluted EPS	$5.10	$3.69	$3.27	$3.79	$4.62	+21.9%	−2.4%
Diluted Shares	1.49B	1.49B	1.54B	1.56B	1.56B	−0.2%	+1.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$28.9B	$53.5B	$61.2B	$56.5B	$46.9B	−17.0%	+12.9%
Total Assets	$573.3B	$674.8B	$663.5B	$678.3B	$692.3B	+2.1%	+4.8%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$32.1B	$39.8B	$43.1B	$43.1B	$43.1B	+0.0%	+7.6%
Total Liabilities	$517.9B	$623.6B	$607.7B	$619.3B	$626.7B	+1.2%	+4.9%
Stockholders' Equity	$55.4B	$51.2B	$55.8B	$59.0B	$65.7B	+11.2%	+4.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-3.2B	$13.7B	$18.1B	$13.4B	$3.8B	−71.6%	—
Invested Capital	$58.6B	$37.5B	$37.7B	$45.6B	$61.8B	+35.6%	+1.3%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$9.9B	$21.1B	$8.4B	$11.3B	$8.0B	−29.8%	−5.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$207.0M	$202.0M	$224.0M	$232.0M	$235.0M	+1.3%	+3.2%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$1.6B	$69.0M	$62.0M	$173.0M	$489.0M	+182.7%	−25.1%
Dividends Paid	$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.1B	$3.2B	+2.5%	+5.3%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what USB did at the next close after each story

Sep 9

U.S. Bancorp USB plans to launch its own stablecoin for payments

Yahoo Finance · 9:38 AM ET

−0.61%

What happened · big days

20 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.50% from the one before, three times USB’s median day (0.83%). On 15 of the 20, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.50%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayUSBWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 17, 2025−3.46%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, moved with USB
1Nov 17, 2025−3.46%
Before our stories
−2.0% moved with USBBAC −2.1 · C −2.1 · WFC −1.9 · JPM −1.1
2 Nov 21, 2025+2.77%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
2Nov 21, 2025+2.77%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itBAC +1.1 · C +1.1 · WFC +0.9 · JPM −0.1
3 Dec 3, 2025+2.52%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with USB
3Dec 3, 2025+2.52%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with USBWFC +3.5 · C +3.4 · BAC +1.7 · JPM +1.4
4 Dec 10, 2025+3.86%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
4Dec 10, 2025+3.86%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itJPM +3.2 · WFC +2.0 · C +1.5 · BAC +1.0
5 Jan 5, 2026+2.89%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, moved with USB
5Jan 5, 2026+2.89%
Before our stories
+2.1% moved with USBC +3.9 · JPM +2.6 · BAC +1.7 · WFC +1.2
6 Feb 6, 2026+2.67%
Before our storiesgroup +3.4%, moved with USB
6Feb 6, 2026+2.67%
Before our stories
+3.4% moved with USBC +6.0 · JPM +4.0 · BAC +2.9 · WFC +2.1
7 Feb 11, 2026−2.63%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, moved with USB
7Feb 11, 2026−2.63%
Before our stories
−3.0% moved with USBC −3.9 · WFC −3.2 · BAC −2.8 · JPM −2.3
8 Feb 23, 2026−4.86%
Before our storiesgroup −4.1%, moved with USB
8Feb 23, 2026−4.86%
Before our stories
−4.1% moved with USBC −4.5 · JPM −4.2 · WFC −4.0 · BAC −3.8
9 Feb 27, 2026−4.54%
Before our storiesgroup −4.9%, moved with USB
9Feb 27, 2026−4.54%
Before our stories
−4.9% moved with USBWFC −5.6 · C −5.2 · BAC −4.7 · JPM −1.9
10 Mar 6, 2026−2.86%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, moved with USB
10Mar 6, 2026−2.86%
Before our stories
−2.1% moved with USBBAC −2.4 · C −2.2 · WFC −2.1 · JPM −1.4
11 Apr 8, 2026+3.09%
Before our storiesgroup +3.5%, moved with USB
11Apr 8, 2026+3.09%
Before our stories
+3.5% moved with USBC +5.4 · WFC +3.6 · JPM +3.5 · BAC +3.2
12 Apr 17, 2026+2.61%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
12Apr 17, 2026+2.61%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itC +2.2 · BAC +0.8 · WFC +0.2 · JPM +0.1
13 May 13, 2026−3.19%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, moved with USB
13May 13, 2026−3.19%
Before our stories
−1.9% moved with USBWFC −2.2 · BAC −1.9 · C −1.9 · JPM −1.5
14 Jun 3, 2026−2.67%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
14Jun 3, 2026−2.67%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itC −1.0 · WFC −1.0 · BAC −0.1 · JPM −0.0
15 Jun 4, 2026+4.37%
Before our storiesgroup +3.6%, moved with USB
15Jun 4, 2026+4.37%
Before our stories
+3.6% moved with USBC +4.0 · WFC +3.7 · BAC +3.4 · JPM +3.3
16 Jul 1, 2026+2.58%
Nothing on USBgroup +2.2%, moved with USB
16Jul 1, 2026+2.58%
Nothing on USBNo USB story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% moved with USBWFC +4.0 · BAC +2.4 · JPM +2.1 · C +0.1
17 Jul 8, 2026−3.01%
Nothing on USBgroup −2.5%, moved with USB
17Jul 8, 2026−3.01%
Nothing on USBNo USB story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with USBBAC −2.6 · JPM −2.5 · C −2.4 · WFC −1.9
18 Aug 19, 2026−3.04%
Nothing on USBgroup −1.7%, moved with USB
18Aug 19, 2026−3.04%
Nothing on USBNo USB story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% moved with USBC −3.5 · WFC −1.7 · JPM −1.6 · BAC −1.6
19 Sep 2, 2026+2.55%
Nothing on USBgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
19Sep 2, 2026+2.55%
Nothing on USBNo USB story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itWFC +2.6 · C +1.4 · BAC +1.0 · JPM +0.4
20 Sep 16, 2026−4.00%
Nothing on USBgroup −2.5%, moved with USB
20Sep 16, 2026−4.00%
Nothing on USBNo USB story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with USBWFC −3.0 · BAC −2.7 · C −2.4 · JPM −1.0

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of JPM, BAC, WFC and C that day, the largest companies in USB’s SEC industry; “moved with USB” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). USB reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 20, 2026

day 1−0.04%day 6+3.92%

Reported Apr 16, 2026

day 1−1.58%day 6+0.46%

Reported Jul 16, 2026

day 1+1.59%day 6+0.51%

Reported Oct 15, 2026

day 1+2.01%day 6+6.68%

Next report: expected mid JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 15 report: +6.20%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is USB’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

USB against four bank peers, a year at 100

USB is up 26.3% in a year. All four did less: Citigroup (+23.8%), JPMorgan Chase (+12.1%), Wells Fargo (+1.6%) and Bank of America (−3.0%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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USB +26.3%. Citigroup +23.8%, JPMorgan Chase +12.1%, Wells Fargo +1.6%, Bank of America −3.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in USB’s SEC industry (National Commercial Banks) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

JPM	JPMorgan Chase	$936.0B	−4.19%
BAC	Bank of America	$361.0B	−3.62%
WFC	Wells Fargo	$264.4B	−3.01%
C	Citigroup	$218.2B	−5.04%
COF	Capital One Financial	$126.6B	−1.20%
PNC	PNC Financial Services	$93.1B	−2.87%
TFC	Truist Financial	$62.1B	−2.02%
HBAN	Huntington Bancshares	$32.4B	−2.80%