CPNG Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $16.421D −3.70%3M +1.42%SMA20 $14.71SMA50 $14.74RSI(14) 65.0
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$31.6B
EV / True FCF550.3x
Revenue$34.5B +14.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$47.0M −48.2%
Rule of 4015.6%
Operating margin1.4%
True FCF Yield0.1%
EPS, diluted$0.11 +37.5%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$31.6B
Enterprise Value$25.9B
EV / True FCF550.29
EV / FCF49.55
EV / Gross Profit2.55
EV / EBIT54.68
EV / Sales0.75
P / E (GAAP)152.06
P / FCF60.59
P / Oper. CF17.84
P / Book6.84
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield0.1%
FCF Yield1.7%
Owner Earn. Yield-3.2%
Earnings Yield0.7%
Shareholder Yield−0.7%
Buyback Yield0.8%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$0.11
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4015.6%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)—
GP / Assets57.0%
ROE4.5%
ROA1.2%
Gross Margin29.4%
Oper. Margin1.4%
Net Margin0.6%
FCF Margin1.5%
True FCF Margin0.1%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion251%
Accrual Ratio−8.8%
SBC % of FCF91.0%
SBC % of Rev1.4%
Reinvest. Rate71%
Sales Growth Y/Y+14.1%
Sales 3Y CAGR+18.8%
EPS Growth Y/Y+37.5%
FCF Growth Y/Y−48.2%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+1.6%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$34.5B
Gross Profit (FY)$10.1B
Oper. Income (FY)$473.0M
GAAP Net Income$208.0M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$47.0M
Cash & Equiv$6.4B
Total Debt$648.0M
Net Cash (Debt)$5.8B
Net Cash % MCap+18.2%
Debt / FCF (yrs)1.2y
Current Ratio1.04
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week+12.70%
Perf Month+10.87%
Perf Quarter+1.17%
Perf Half Y−4.65%
Perf YTD−23.66%
SMA 20 Dist+11.62%$14.71
SMA 50 Dist+11.39%$14.74
SMA 100 Dist+3.70%$15.83
Window High−23.66%$21.51
Window Low+19.42%$13.75
RSI (14) · Vol65.058%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of CPNG revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$475.0M(91.0% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$47.0M(0.1% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
$18.4BFY21
$20.6BFY22
$24.4BFY23
$30.3BFY24
$34.5BFY25
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$18.4B
$20.6B
$24.4B
$30.3B
$34.5B
+14.1%
+17.0%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$15.5B
$15.9B
$18.2B
$21.4B
$24.4B
+13.8%
+12.1%
Gross Profit ▸
—
$4.7B
$6.2B
$8.8B
$10.1B
+14.8%
+29.1%
Total Operating Expenses
—
$4.8B
$5.7B
$8.4B
$9.7B
+15.2%
+26.1%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$-1.5B
$-112.0M
$473.0M
$436.0M
$473.0M
+8.5%
—
Interest Expense
$45.0M
$27.0M
$48.0M
$140.0M
$86.0M
−38.6%
+17.6%
Income Tax Expense
$1.0M
$-1.0M
$-776.0M
$407.0M
$383.0M
−5.9%
+342.4%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$-1.5B
$-92.0M
$1.4B
$154.0M
$208.0M
+35.1%
—
Diluted EPS ▸
$-1.08
$-0.05
$0.75
$0.08
$0.11
+37.5%
—
Diluted Shares
1.42B
1.76B
1.80B
1.83B
1.85B
+1.6%
+6.8%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$3.8B
$3.7B
$5.6B
$6.0B
$6.4B
+6.3%
+13.9%
Inventory
$1.4B
$1.7B
$1.7B
$2.1B
$2.3B
+7.5%
+12.2%
Total Current Assets
$5.6B
$5.8B
$7.9B
$9.0B
$9.7B
+7.7%
+14.5%
Total Assets
$8.6B
$9.5B
$13.3B
$15.3B
$17.8B
+15.9%
+19.8%
Total Current Liabilities
$4.7B
$5.1B
$6.9B
$7.7B
$9.4B
+21.3%
+18.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$624.9M
$667.0M
$732.0M
$1.1B
$648.0M
−38.5%
+0.9%
Total Liabilities
$6.5B
$7.1B
$9.2B
$11.2B
$13.2B
+17.9%
+19.5%
Stockholders' Equity
$2.2B
$2.4B
$4.1B
$4.1B
$4.6B
+12.7%
+20.7%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$3.2B
$3.0B
$4.9B
$5.0B
$5.8B
+15.8%
+16.0%
Invested Capital
$-1.0B
$-606.0M
$-776.0M
$-875.0M
$-1.1B
−30.4%
—
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$-411.0M
$565.0M
$2.7B
$1.9B
$1.8B
−6.0%
—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$201.0M
$231.0M
$275.0M
$433.0M
$517.0M
+19.4%
+26.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$249.0M
$262.0M
$326.0M
$433.0M
$475.0M
+9.7%
+17.5%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$674.0M
$824.0M
$896.0M
$879.0M
$1.3B
+42.3%
+16.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$-1.1B
$-259.0M
$1.8B
$1.0B
$522.0M
−48.2%
—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$-1.3B
$-521.0M
$1.4B
$574.0M
$47.0M
−91.8%
—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
—
$0
$0
$178.0M
$243.0M
+36.5%
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 5.08% from the one before, three times CPNG’s median day (1.69%). On 3 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±5.08%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayCPNGWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 5, 2025−5.94%
Resultsgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
1Nov 5, 2025−5.94%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
+0.9% did not move with itCHWY −2.1 · AMZN +0.3 · W +1.4 · CDW +3.3
2 Dec 1, 2025−5.36%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
2Dec 1, 2025−5.36%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itCDW −0.8 · W −0.7 · CHWY +0.1 · AMZN +0.3
3 Dec 26, 2025+6.45%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
3Dec 26, 2025+6.45%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itCHWY +1.7 · W +1.5 · CDW +0.7 · AMZN +0.1
4 Jan 14, 2026−5.37%
Before our storiesgroup −3.1%, moved with CPNG
4Jan 14, 2026−5.37%
Before our stories
−3.1% moved with CPNGCHWY −4.0 · W −3.7 · AMZN −2.5 · CDW −1.8
5 Feb 5, 2026−13.68%
Before our storiesgroup −3.2%, did not move with it
5Feb 5, 2026−13.68%
Before our stories
−3.2% did not move with itAMZN −4.4 · CHWY −3.6 · W −2.8 · CDW +1.9
6 Feb 6, 2026+5.54%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, moved with CPNG
6Feb 6, 2026+5.54%
Before our stories
+3.0% moved with CPNGCHWY +5.5 · W +4.8 · CDW +1.3 · AMZN −5.5
7 Mar 16, 2026+10.84%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
7Mar 16, 2026+10.84%
Before our stories
+1.9% did not move with itW +4.4 · AMZN +2.0 · CDW +1.8 · CHWY −1.4
8 Apr 21, 2026−5.11%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
8Apr 21, 2026−5.11%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itCHWY −3.9 · W −1.3 · AMZN +0.7 · CDW +3.3
9 May 6, 2026−13.82%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
9May 6, 2026−13.82%
ResultsFirst close after the May 5 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itCDW −20.3 · CHWY +0.2 · AMZN +0.5 · W +4.4
10 May 27, 2026+6.40%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
10May 27, 2026+6.40%
Before our stories
+2.1% did not move with itCDW +5.2 · AMZN +2.5 · W +1.7 · CHWY −0.3
11 Jun 5, 2026−8.35%
Before our storiesgroup −3.8%, did not move with it
11Jun 5, 2026−8.35%
Before our stories
−3.8% did not move with itW −5.7 · CDW −4.6 · AMZN −3.1 · CHWY −0.9
12 Jun 11, 2026+14.09%
Nothing on CPNGgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
12Jun 11, 2026+14.09%
Nothing on CPNGNo CPNG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.7% did not move with itW +13.1 · AMZN +1.5 · CDW −0.1 · CHWY −6.1
13 Jun 16, 2026+5.25%
Nothing on CPNGgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
13Jun 16, 2026+5.25%
Nothing on CPNGNo CPNG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itW +0.2 · AMZN −0.0 · CDW −0.9 · CHWY −2.4
14 Jul 30, 2026+6.13%
Nothing on CPNGgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
14Jul 30, 2026+6.13%
Nothing on CPNGNo CPNG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.4% did not move with itAMZN +3.9 · W +0.8 · CDW −1.6 · CHWY −2.1
15 Aug 19, 2026+6.93%
Nothing on CPNGgroup +3.3%, did not move with it
15Aug 19, 2026+6.93%
Nothing on CPNGNo CPNG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% did not move with itW +6.0 · CHWY +4.1 · AMZN +2.5 · CDW +1.6
16 Nov 4, 2026+11.95%
Resultsgroup +8.6%, moved with CPNG
16Nov 4, 2026+11.95%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 3 results filing
+8.6% moved with CPNGCDW +12.7 · W +11.0 · AMZN +6.1 · CHWY +6.1
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of AMZN, CDW, W and CHWY that day, the largest companies in CPNG’s SEC industry; “moved with CPNG” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). CPNG reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Nov 4, 2025
day 1−5.94%day 6−10.27%
Reported Feb 26, 2026
day 1+1.98%day 6+1.92%
Reported May 5, 2026
day 1−13.82%day 6−23.12%
Reported Aug 4, 2026
day 1−4.65%day 6−2.74%
Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: +7.81%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is CPNG’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
CPNG against four same-industry peers, a year at 100
CPNG is down 43.1% in a year. CDW is up 11.2%, Amazon 8.8%, Wayfair 6.1% and Chewy is down 31.8%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in CPNG’s SEC industry (Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.