Pattern Group PTRN

Nasdaq · Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses · $2.0B

$17.25−2.43%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2025 →

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PTRN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $17.251D −2.43%3M −18.32%SMA20 $17.10SMA50 $18.32RSI(14) 48.3

17.25

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 48.3

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$2.0B

EV / FCF22.1x

Revenue$2.5B +39.3%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-18.4M +58.2%

Rule of 4042.5%

ROIC-178.1%

True FCF Yield-0.9%

EPS, diluted$-1.36 −389.4%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$2.0B

Enterprise Value$1.7B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF22.10

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT68.65

EV / Sales0.70

P / E (GAAP)125.15

P / FCF25.76

P / Oper. CF20.45

P / Book3.50

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-0.9%

FCF Yield3.9%

Owner Earn. Yield-4.2%

Earnings Yield0.8%

Shareholder Yield−4.8%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-1.36

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4042.5%

ROIC-178.1%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)27.0%

GP / Assets—

ROE2.8%

ROA1.7%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin1.0%

Net Margin0.6%

FCF Margin3.2%

True FCF Margin-0.7%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion486%

Accrual Ratio−8.8%

SBC % of FCF123.3%

SBC % of Rev3.9%

Reinvest. Rate67%

Sales Growth Y/Y+39.3%

Sales 3Y CAGR—

EPS Growth Y/Y−389.4%

FCF Growth Y/Y+58.2%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+26.7%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$2.5B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$25.4M

GAAP Net Income$16.2M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-18.4M

Cash & Equiv$289.0M

Total Debt—

Net Cash (Debt)$289.0M

Net Cash % MCap+14.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio2.34

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+2.13%

Perf Month−2.60%

Perf Quarter−21.77%

Perf Half Y+1.77%

Perf YTD+25.18%

SMA 20 Dist+0.89%$17.10

SMA 50 Dist−5.84%$18.32

SMA 100 Dist−18.17%$21.08

Window High−41.33%$29.40

Window Low+30.19%$13.25

RSI (14) · Vol48.345%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of PTRN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.4B ($56.4 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$46.3M ($1.9 / $100)

Operating Expenses$1.0B ($40.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$9.2M ($0.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$16.2M ($0.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$16.2M (0.6% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$99.4M(4.0% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$20.5M(0.8% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$78.9M(3.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$97.3M(123.3% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-18.4M(-0.7% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$1.4B	$1.8B	$2.5B	+39.3%	+35.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$765.2M	$1.0B	$1.4B	+39.0%	+35.8%
Research & Development (R&D)	$14.6M	$18.0M	$46.3M	+157.4%	+77.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$52.8M	$87.2M	$25.4M	−70.9%	−30.6%
Interest Expense	$33,000	$98,000	$231,000	+135.7%	+164.6%
Income Tax Expense	$15.1M	$23.4M	$-17.0M	−172.9%	—
GAAP Net Income	$41.3M	$67.9M	$16.2M	−76.1%	−37.3%
Diluted EPS	$0.22	$0.47	$-1.36	−389.4%	—
Diluted Shares	90.8M	90.8M	115.0M	+26.7%	+12.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$127.2M	$175.6M	$289.0M	+64.6%	+50.7%
Inventory	$367.6M	$264.1M	$294.7M	+11.6%	−10.5%
Total Current Assets	$930.4M	$558.1M	$792.6M	+42.0%	−7.7%
Total Assets	$1.1B	$664.4M	$947.6M	+42.6%	−7.8%
Total Current Liabilities	$401.2M	$257.7M	$338.5M	+31.4%	−8.1%
Total Liabilities	$454.3M	$285.1M	$366.6M	+28.6%	−10.2%
Stockholders' Equity	$42.4M	$108.7M	$581.0M	+434.4%	+270.2%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$127.2M	$175.6M	$289.0M	+64.6%	+50.7%
Invested Capital	$-84.8M	$-66.9M	$291.9M	+536.5%	—
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$41.5M	$70.3M	$99.4M	+41.3%	+54.8%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$12.1M	$14.8M	$16.8M	+13.4%	+17.8%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$-206,000	$0	$97.3M	—	—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$14.5M	$20.4M	$20.5M	+0.2%	+18.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$27.0M	$49.9M	$78.9M	+58.2%	+71.0%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$27.2M	$49.9M	$-18.4M	−136.8%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$0	$2.9M	$0	−100.0%	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what PTRN did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named PTRN yet.

What happened · big days

21 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 6.96% from the one before, three times PTRN’s median day (2.32%). On 0 of the 21, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±6.96%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayPTRNWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 5, 2025+7.32%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
1Nov 5, 2025+7.32%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itCDW +3.3 · W +1.4 · AMZN +0.3 · CPNG −5.9
2 Nov 17, 2025−10.08%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
2Nov 17, 2025−10.08%
Before our stories
−1.9% did not move with itCDW −3.3 · W −2.4 · CPNG −1.4 · AMZN −0.8
3 Dec 4, 2025−13.03%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
3Dec 4, 2025−13.03%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itAMZN −1.4 · W −0.7 · CDW +0.6 · CPNG +1.7
4 Jan 5, 2026+10.78%
Before our storiesgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
4Jan 5, 2026+10.78%
Before our stories
−0.4% did not move with itAMZN +2.9 · CDW +0.3 · W −1.1 · CPNG −2.0
5 Jan 12, 2026−7.71%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
5Jan 12, 2026−7.71%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itCPNG −2.5 · W −0.9 · AMZN −0.4 · CDW +0.0
6 Jan 15, 2026+9.15%
Before our storiesgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
6Jan 15, 2026+9.15%
Before our stories
+1.4% did not move with itW +3.2 · CPNG +2.2 · AMZN +0.7 · CDW +0.1
7 Jan 22, 2026+7.93%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
7Jan 22, 2026+7.93%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itCDW +1.3 · AMZN +1.3 · W −0.2 · CPNG −1.4
8 Jan 26, 2026+12.54%
Before our storiesgroup +0.0%, did not move with it
8Jan 26, 2026+12.54%
Before our stories
+0.0% did not move with itCDW +1.1 · W +0.3 · AMZN −0.3 · CPNG −2.1
9 Jan 30, 2026−13.41%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
9Jan 30, 2026−13.41%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itW −3.8 · AMZN −1.0 · CPNG +0.8 · CDW +0.9
10 Feb 5, 2026−10.35%
Before our storiesgroup −3.6%, did not move with it
10Feb 5, 2026−10.35%
Before our stories
−3.6% did not move with itCPNG −13.7 · AMZN −4.4 · W −2.8 · CDW +1.9
11 Feb 6, 2026+7.97%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, did not move with it
11Feb 6, 2026+7.97%
Before our stories
+3.0% did not move with itCPNG +5.5 · W +4.8 · CDW +1.3 · AMZN −5.5
12 Feb 11, 2026−12.31%
Before our storiesgroup −2.7%, did not move with it
12Feb 11, 2026−12.31%
Before our stories
−2.7% did not move with itCDW −5.5 · CPNG −3.2 · W −2.2 · AMZN −1.4
13 Feb 25, 2026+11.68%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
13Feb 25, 2026+11.68%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itW +2.5 · AMZN +1.0 · CPNG −1.2 · CDW −3.1
14 Mar 6, 2026−7.22%
Resultsgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
14Mar 6, 2026−7.22%
ResultsFirst close after the Mar 5 results filing
−2.1% did not move with itW −3.0 · AMZN −2.6 · CPNG −1.6 · CDW −0.7
15 Mar 10, 2026+9.67%
Before our storiesgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
15Mar 10, 2026+9.67%
Before our stories
−0.4% did not move with itCPNG +2.0 · AMZN +0.4 · W −1.2 · CDW −1.7
16 Mar 11, 2026+11.79%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
16Mar 11, 2026+11.79%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itW +0.4 · CDW +0.2 · AMZN −0.8 · CPNG −2.1
17 Mar 25, 2026+9.15%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
17Mar 25, 2026+9.15%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itW +5.8 · AMZN +2.2 · CPNG +1.5 · CDW −0.5
18 Mar 27, 2026−6.97%
Before our storiesgroup −2.7%, did not move with it
18Mar 27, 2026−6.97%
Before our stories
−2.7% did not move with itAMZN −4.0 · W −3.0 · CDW −2.5 · CPNG −1.5
19 May 7, 2026+18.95%
Resultsgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
19May 7, 2026+18.95%
ResultsFirst close after the May 6 results filing
−0.5% did not move with itCDW +1.1 · W +0.3 · AMZN −1.4 · CPNG −3.8
20 Jul 6, 2026+7.57%
Nothing on PTRNgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
20Jul 6, 2026+7.57%
Nothing on PTRNNo PTRN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itCPNG +3.2 · AMZN +0.6 · CDW +0.6 · W −1.4
21 Sep 24, 2026−7.33%
Nothing on PTRNgroup −2.3%, did not move with it
21Sep 24, 2026−7.33%
Nothing on PTRNNo PTRN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.3% did not move with itCDW −4.6 · CPNG −2.8 · W −1.8 · AMZN +0.0

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of AMZN, CPNG, CDW and W that day, the largest companies in PTRN’s SEC industry; “moved with PTRN” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last three did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). PTRN reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 2 of 3 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 5, 2025

day 1+0.83%day 6−1.55%

Reported Mar 5, 2026

day 1−7.22%day 6−2.49%

Reported May 6, 2026

day 1+18.95%day 6+14.11%

Next report: no results filing for longer than its usual quarterNot announced. Since the May 6 report: +21.05%. Three reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2025 →

Each line is PTRN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

PTRN against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

PTRN is up 0.9% in a year. CDW is up 11.2%, Amazon 8.8% and Wayfair 6.1%. Of these four, only Coupang (−43.1%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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PTRN +0.9%. CDW +11.2%, Amazon +8.8%, Wayfair +6.1%, Coupang −43.1%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in PTRN’s SEC industry (Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

AMZN	Amazon	$2.87T	−2.19%
CPNG	Coupang	$31.6B	−3.70%
CDW	CDW	$21.1B	−6.14%
W	Wayfair	$15.8B	−8.24%
CHWY	Chewy	$10.0B	−1.71%
VIPS	Vipshop Holdings	$7.0B	+1.45%
NSIT	Insight Enterprises	$5.2B	−13.04%
GCT	GigaCloud Technology	$2.2B	+8.86%