Wayfair W
NYSE · Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses · $15.8B$113.38−8.24%Nov 5 close · Databento
W Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $113.381D −8.24%3M +9.80%SMA20 $112.31SMA50 $105.73RSI(14) 52.7
113.38
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 52.7
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via DatabentoMarket cap$15.8B
EV / True FCF136.8x
Revenue$12.5B +5.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$129.0M +90.2%
Rule of 408.8%
Operating margin0.1%
True FCF Yield0.8%
EPS, diluted$-2.44 +39.2%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$15.8B
Enterprise Value$17.7B
EV / True FCF136.83
EV / FCF38.04
EV / Gross Profit4.69
EV / EBIT1038.28
EV / Sales1.42
P / E (GAAP)—
P / FCF34.09
P / Oper. CF29.62
P / Book—
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield0.8%
FCF Yield2.9%
Owner Earn. Yield-2.6%
Earnings Yield-2.0%
Shareholder Yield−2.1%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio0%
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$-2.44
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 408.8%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)—
GP / Assets109.4%
ROE11.3%
ROA-9.1%
Gross Margin30.2%
Oper. Margin0.1%
Net Margin-2.5%
FCF Margin3.7%
True FCF Margin1.0%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion—
Accrual Ratio−24.6%
SBC % of FCF72.2%
SBC % of Rev2.7%
Reinvest. Rate13%
Sales Growth Y/Y+5.1%
Sales 3Y CAGR+0.6%
EPS Growth Y/Y+39.2%
FCF Growth Y/Y+90.2%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+4.1%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$12.5B
Gross Profit (FY)$3.8B
Oper. Income (FY)$17.0M
GAAP Net Income$-313.0M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$129.0M
Cash & Equiv$1.5B
Total Debt$3.3B
Net Cash (Debt)$-1.8B
Net Cash % MCap−11.6%
Debt / FCF (yrs)7.1y
Current Ratio0.94
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−5.61%
Perf Month+8.53%
Perf Quarter+6.36%
Perf Half Y+71.27%
Perf YTD+39.82%
SMA 20 Dist+0.96%$112.31
SMA 50 Dist+7.24%$105.73
SMA 100 Dist+13.27%$100.10
Window High−8.24%$123.56
Window Low+97.53%$57.40
RSI (14) · Vol52.766%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of W revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$8.7B ($69.8 / $100)
Operating Expenses$3.7B ($30.1 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$330.0M ($2.6 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$-313.0M ($0.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$-313.0M (-2.5% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$534.0M(4.3% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$70.0M(0.6% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$464.0M(3.7% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$335.0M(72.2% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$129.0M(1.0% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
| Line Item (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY Δ | 4Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||
| Revenue | $13.7B | $12.2B | $12.0B | $11.9B | $12.5B | +5.1% | −2.4% | |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | $9.8B | $8.8B | $8.3B | $8.3B | $8.7B | +5.0% | −3.0% | |
| Gross Profit | $3.9B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $3.6B | $3.8B | +5.3% | −0.8% | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $4.0B | $4.8B | $4.5B | $4.0B | $3.7B | −7.1% | −1.5% | |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-94.0M | $-1.4B | $-813.0M | $-461.0M | $17.0M | +103.7% | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | — | $63.0M | $83.0M | $165.0M | +98.8% | +61.8% | |
| Income Tax Expense | $1.0M | $12.0M | $9.0M | $10.0M | $9.0M | −10.0% | +73.2% | |
| GAAP Net Income | $-131.0M | $-1.3B | $-738.0M | $-492.0M | $-313.0M | +36.4% | — | |
| Diluted EPS | $-1.26 | $-12.54 | $-6.47 | $-4.01 | $-2.44 | +39.2% | — | |
| Diluted Shares | 104.0M | 106.0M | 114.0M | 123.0M | 128.0M | +4.1% | +5.3% | |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.7B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.5B | +11.8% | −3.6% | |
| Inventory | $69.0M | $90.0M | $75.0M | $76.0M | $71.0M | −6.6% | +0.7% | |
| Total Current Assets | $3.0B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.0B | +6.6% | −9.7% | |
| Total Assets | $4.6B | $3.6B | $3.5B | $3.5B | $3.4B | −0.5% | −6.9% | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.1B | −10.2% | −1.0% | |
| Total Debt (Short + Long Term) | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.3B | −1.3% | +1.7% | |
| Total Liabilities | $6.2B | $6.1B | $6.2B | $6.2B | $6.2B | +0.1% | +0.1% | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $-1.6B | $-2.5B | $-2.7B | $-2.8B | $-2.8B | −1.0% | — | |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | $-1.4B | $-2.1B | $-2.0B | $-2.0B | $-1.8B | +9.8% | — | |
| Invested Capital | $-234.0M | $-463.0M | $-707.0M | $-721.0M | $-947.0M | −31.3% | — | |
| Cash Flow & Capital Allocation | ||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | $410.0M | $-674.0M | $349.0M | $317.0M | $534.0M | +68.5% | +6.8% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) | $322.0M | $371.0M | $417.0M | $387.0M | $305.0M | −21.2% | −1.3% | |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $344.0M | $513.0M | $605.0M | $395.0M | $335.0M | −15.2% | −0.7% | |
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | $101.0M | $186.0M | $148.0M | $73.0M | $70.0M | −4.1% | −8.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $309.0M | $-860.0M | $201.0M | $244.0M | $464.0M | +90.2% | +10.7% | |
| True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash) | $-35.0M | $-1.4B | $-404.0M | $-151.0M | $129.0M | +185.4% | — | |
| Share Repurchases (Buybacks) | $300.0M | $75.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 | — | — | |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | $0 | — | — | |
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
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