Ford Motor F

NYSE · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · $50.4B

$12.53−1.10%Nov 5 close · Databento

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F Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $12.531D −1.10%3M −10.50%SMA20 $12.14SMA50 $12.78RSI(14) 53.3

12.53

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 53.3

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$50.4B

Enterprise value$27.0B

Revenue$187.3B +1.2%

ROIC-50.5%

EPS, diluted$-2.06 −241.1%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$50.4B

Enterprise Value$27.0B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales0.14

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF2.37

P / Book1.40

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield-16.2%

Shareholder Yield+4.9%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield5.99%

Dividend / sh$0.75

Payout Ratio-37%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-2.06

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC-50.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE-22.7%

ROA-2.8%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin-4.9%

Net Margin-4.4%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−10.2%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.3%

Reinvest. Rate44%

Sales Growth Y/Y+1.2%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.8%

EPS Growth Y/Y−241.1%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−1.0%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$187.3B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$-9.2B

GAAP Net Income$-8.2B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$23.8B

Total Debt$291.0M

Net Cash (Debt)$23.5B

Net Cash % MCap+46.5%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.073.73B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+1.38%

Perf Month+3.38%

Perf Quarter−10.37%

Perf Half Y+2.87%

Perf YTD−2.64%

SMA 20 Dist+3.22%$12.14

SMA 50 Dist−1.93%$12.78

SMA 100 Dist−6.79%$13.44

Window High−28.15%$17.44

Window Low+8.96%$11.50

RSI (14) · Vol53.330%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of F revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$174.5B ($93.2 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$9.4B ($5.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$12.6B ($6.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-8.2B ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-8.2B (-4.4% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$21.3B(11.4% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$510.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$136.3B	$158.1B	$176.2B	$185.0B	$187.3B	+1.2%	+8.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$114.7B	$134.4B	$150.6B	$158.4B	$174.5B	+10.1%	+11.1%
Research & Development (R&D)	$7.6B	$7.8B	$8.2B	$8.0B	$9.4B	+17.5%	+5.5%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$11.9B	$10.9B	$10.7B	$10.3B	$10.8B	+5.5%	−2.3%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$4.5B	$6.3B	$5.5B	$5.2B	$-9.2B	−275.7%	—
Interest Expense	$4.6B	$4.6B	$7.6B	$1.1B	$1.3B	+12.5%	−27.7%
Income Tax Expense	$-130.0M	$-864.0M	$-362.0M	$1.3B	$-3.7B	−373.9%	—
GAAP Net Income	$17.9B	$-2.0B	$4.3B	$5.9B	$-8.2B	−238.8%	—
Diluted EPS	$4.45	$-0.49	$1.08	$1.46	$-2.06	−241.1%	—
Diluted Shares	4.03B	4.01B	4.04B	4.02B	3.98B	−1.0%	−0.3%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$20.7B	$25.3B	$25.1B	$23.2B	$23.8B	+2.4%	+3.4%
Inventory	$12.1B	$14.1B	$15.7B	$15.0B	$15.3B	+2.2%	+6.1%
Total Current Assets	$109.0B	$116.5B	$121.5B	$124.5B	$123.5B	−0.8%	+3.2%
Total Assets	$257.0B	$255.9B	$273.3B	$285.2B	$289.2B	+1.4%	+3.0%
Total Current Liabilities	$90.7B	$96.9B	$101.5B	$106.9B	$114.9B	+7.5%	+6.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$291.0M	$291.0M	$291.0M	$291.0M	$291.0M	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Liabilities	$208.4B	$212.7B	$230.5B	$240.3B	$253.2B	+5.3%	+5.0%
Stockholders' Equity	$48.6B	$43.2B	$42.8B	$44.9B	$36.0B	−19.8%	−7.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$20.4B	$25.0B	$24.8B	$22.9B	$23.5B	+2.4%	+3.5%
Invested Capital	$28.2B	$18.1B	$18.0B	$22.0B	$12.5B	−43.0%	−18.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$15.8B	$6.9B	$14.9B	$15.4B	$21.3B	+38.0%	+7.8%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$7.3B	$7.7B	$7.7B	$7.6B	$16.0B	+111.1%	+21.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$305.0M	$336.0M	$460.0M	$511.0M	$510.0M	−0.2%	+13.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$0	$484.0M	$335.0M	$426.0M	$0	−100.0%	—
Dividends Paid	$403.0M	$2.0B	$5.0B	$3.1B	$3.0B	−4.1%	+65.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what F did at the next close after each story

Oct 28

Ford flags $2.5 billion commodity headwind after earnings beat

Bloomberg Television · 5:06 PM ET

+3.43%

What happened · big days

23 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.61% from the one before, three times F’s median day (1.20%). On 7 of the 23, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.61%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayFWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 20, 2025−3.80%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
1Nov 20, 2025−3.80%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itTSLA −2.2 · GM −0.7 · RIVN −0.4 · PCAR +1.1
2 Jan 8, 2026+4.80%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
2Jan 8, 2026+4.80%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itGM +3.9 · PCAR +2.5 · TSLA +1.0 · RIVN −0.8
3 Jan 21, 2026+3.69%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, moved with F
3Jan 21, 2026+3.69%
Before our stories
+3.1% moved with FGM +4.0 · PCAR +3.3 · TSLA +2.9 · RIVN +1.9
4 Jan 27, 2026+3.65%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
4Jan 27, 2026+3.65%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itGM +8.8 · TSLA −1.0 · PCAR −1.1 · RIVN −3.0
5 Feb 24, 2026+4.11%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
5Feb 24, 2026+4.11%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itTSLA +2.4 · GM +2.0 · RIVN +1.1 · PCAR +0.1
6 Mar 2, 2026−4.97%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
6Mar 2, 2026−4.97%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itRIVN −2.1 · PCAR −1.3 · GM −1.2 · TSLA +0.2
7 Mar 3, 2026−5.15%
Before our storiesgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
7Mar 3, 2026−5.15%
Before our stories
−1.6% did not move with itTSLA −2.7 · PCAR −2.6 · GM −0.6 · RIVN +0.6
8 Mar 5, 2026−3.67%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
8Mar 5, 2026−3.67%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itGM −3.0 · PCAR −1.3 · TSLA −0.1 · RIVN +1.8
9 Apr 8, 2026+5.73%
Before our storiesgroup +4.1%, moved with F
9Apr 8, 2026+5.73%
Before our stories
+4.1% moved with FGM +5.5 · PCAR +5.1 · RIVN +3.1 · TSLA −1.0
10 Apr 14, 2026+4.52%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
10Apr 14, 2026+4.52%
Before our stories
+1.9% did not move with itGM +3.4 · TSLA +3.3 · RIVN +0.6 · PCAR −1.5
11 May 6, 2026+4.11%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, moved with F
11May 6, 2026+4.11%
Before our stories
+2.6% moved with FGM +3.4 · PCAR +2.7 · TSLA +2.4 · RIVN −0.8
12 May 13, 2026+13.18%
Before our storiesgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
12May 13, 2026+13.18%
Before our stories
+0.7% did not move with itTSLA +2.7 · RIVN +2.3 · GM −0.8 · PCAR −1.1
13 May 14, 2026+6.71%
Before our storiesgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
13May 14, 2026+6.71%
Before our stories
+1.2% did not move with itGM +2.6 · RIVN +1.8 · PCAR +0.7 · TSLA −0.4
14 May 15, 2026−7.46%
Before our storiesgroup −4.2%, moved with F
14May 15, 2026−7.46%
Before our stories
−4.2% moved with FRIVN −5.0 · TSLA −4.8 · GM −3.7 · PCAR −2.0
15 May 22, 2026+9.22%
Before our storiesgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
15May 22, 2026+9.22%
Before our stories
+1.2% did not move with itGM +2.0 · TSLA +1.9 · RIVN +0.5 · PCAR +0.0
16 May 27, 2026+3.66%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, moved with F
16May 27, 2026+3.66%
Before our stories
+1.9% moved with FGM +5.4 · RIVN +2.1 · TSLA +1.6 · PCAR +0.2
17 May 28, 2026+4.85%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
17May 28, 2026+4.85%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itRIVN +3.4 · TSLA +0.4 · GM +0.3 · PCAR −0.0
18 May 29, 2026+4.74%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
18May 29, 2026+4.74%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itRIVN +7.2 · GM −1.3 · TSLA −1.4 · PCAR −1.6
19 Jun 1, 2026−4.64%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
19Jun 1, 2026−4.64%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itTSLA −4.6 · PCAR −0.8 · GM −0.7 · RIVN +4.0
20 Jun 10, 2026−4.35%
Nothing on Fgroup −5.0%, moved with F
20Jun 10, 2026−4.35%
Nothing on FNo F story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.0% moved with FRIVN −6.2 · GM −5.2 · PCAR −4.8 · TSLA −3.8
21 Aug 19, 2026+4.09%
Nothing on Fgroup +2.9%, moved with F
21Aug 19, 2026+4.09%
Nothing on FNo F story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.9% moved with FRIVN +6.4 · TSLA +4.2 · GM +1.5 · PCAR −0.4
22 Sep 8, 2026−4.24%
Nothing on Fgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
22Sep 8, 2026−4.24%
Nothing on FNo F story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.5% did not move with itGM −2.2 · PCAR −1.8 · RIVN +2.7 · TSLA +4.0
23 Sep 9, 2026−3.93%
Nothing on Fgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
23Sep 9, 2026−3.93%
Nothing on FNo F story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.8% did not move with itGM −2.4 · RIVN −1.0 · PCAR −0.5 · TSLA −0.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of TSLA, GM, PCAR and RIVN that day, the largest companies in F’s SEC industry; “moved with F” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). F reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 23, 2025

day 1+12.16%day 6+6.40%

Reported Feb 10, 2026

day 1+2.06%day 6+1.55%

Reported Apr 29, 2026

day 1−1.31%day 6−0.49%

Reported Jul 28, 2026

day 1+2.14%day 6−5.55%

Next report: expected late January to early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 28 report: +6.03%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is F’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

F against four carmaker peers, a year at 100

F is down 4.1% in a year. General Motors is up 30.6% and Paccar 5.9%. Of these four, Tesla (−10.3%) and Rivian Automotive (−12.7%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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F −4.1%. General Motors +30.6%, Paccar +5.9%, Tesla −10.3%, Rivian Automotive −12.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in F’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

TSLA	Tesla	$1.52T	−10.77%
GM	General Motors	$81.1B	−3.35%
PCAR	Paccar	$55.9B	−1.56%
RIVN	Rivian Automotive	$16.7B	−5.48%
LI	Li Auto	$12.4B	+2.94%
OSK	Oshkosh	$8.9B	−4.64%
NIO	NIO	$7.5B	−3.03%
FSS	Federal Signal	$7.2B	−4.96%