Federal Signal FSS

NYSE · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · $7.2B

$112.08−4.96%Nov 5 close · Databento

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FSS Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $112.081D −4.96%3M −11.59%SMA20 $114.50SMA50 $114.90RSI(14) 44.3

112.08

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 44.3

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$7.2B

EV / True FCF34.6x

Revenue$2.2B +17.1%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$212.1M +19.1%

Rule of 4027.5%

ROIC16.9%

True FCF Yield2.9%

EPS, diluted$4.01 +14.6%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$7.2B

Enterprise Value$7.3B

EV / True FCF34.64

EV / FCF32.35

EV / Gross Profit11.64

EV / EBIT21.55

EV / Sales3.37

P / E (GAAP)29.19

P / FCF31.70

P / Oper. CF28.26

P / Book5.21

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield2.9%

FCF Yield3.2%

Owner Earn. Yield4.0%

Earnings Yield3.4%

Shareholder Yield+0.8%

Buyback Yield0.6%

Dividend Yield0.50%

Dividend / sh$0.56

Payout Ratio14%

FCF / sh$3.72

EPS (diluted)$4.01

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4027.5%

ROIC16.9%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)14.8%

GP / Assets26.4%

ROE17.8%

ROA10.3%

Gross Margin28.9%

Oper. Margin15.6%

Net Margin11.3%

FCF Margin10.4%

True FCF Margin9.7%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion92%

Accrual Ratio−0.3%

SBC % of FCF6.6%

SBC % of Rev0.7%

Reinvest. Rate11%

Sales Growth Y/Y+17.1%

Sales 3Y CAGR+15.0%

EPS Growth Y/Y+14.6%

FCF Growth Y/Y+19.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR+129.4%

Share Change Y/Y−0.3%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$2.2B

Gross Profit (FY)$631.2M

Oper. Income (FY)$340.9M

GAAP Net Income$246.6M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$212.1M

Cash & Equiv$63.7M

Total Debt$211.6M

Net Cash (Debt)$-147.9M

Net Cash % MCap−2.1%

Debt / FCF (yrs)0.9y

Current Ratio3.0261.02M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−2.72%

Perf Month−2.04%

Perf Quarter−12.58%

Perf Half Y−6.96%

Perf YTD−2.78%

SMA 20 Dist−2.11%$114.50

SMA 50 Dist−2.45%$114.90

SMA 100 Dist−5.43%$118.51

Window High−16.27%$133.86

Window Low+6.25%$105.49

RSI (14) · Vol44.330%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of FSS revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.5B ($71.1 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$290.3M ($13.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$94.3M ($4.3 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$246.6M ($11.3 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$246.6M (11.3% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$254.7M(11.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$27.6M(1.3% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$227.1M(10.4% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$15.0M(6.6% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$212.1M(9.7% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.2B	+17.1%	+15.8%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$924.5M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.5B	+16.6%	+13.8%
Gross Profit	$288.7M	$344.9M	$450.2M	$533.0M	$631.2M	+18.4%	+21.6%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$149.2M	$171.7M	$210.1M	$234.0M	$255.9M	+9.4%	+14.4%
Total Operating Expenses	$158.0M	$184.1M	$225.7M	$251.6M	$290.3M	+15.4%	+16.4%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$130.7M	$160.8M	$224.5M	$281.4M	$340.9M	+21.1%	+27.1%
Interest Expense	$4.5M	$10.3M	$19.7M	$12.5M	$14.1M	+12.8%	+33.0%
Income Tax Expense	$17.0M	$30.5M	$45.6M	$47.6M	$77.9M	+63.7%	+46.3%
GAAP Net Income	$100.6M	$120.4M	$157.4M	$216.3M	$246.6M	+14.0%	+25.1%
Diluted EPS	$1.63	$1.97	$2.56	$3.50	$4.01	+14.6%	+25.2%
Diluted Shares	61.9M	61.2M	61.5M	61.7M	61.5M	−0.3%	−0.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$40.5M	$47.5M	$61.0M	$91.1M	$63.7M	−30.1%	+12.0%
Inventory	$229.1M	$292.7M	$303.4M	$331.0M	$471.6M	+42.5%	+19.8%
Total Current Assets	$431.0M	$531.4M	$570.2M	$642.5M	$853.8M	+32.9%	+18.6%
Total Assets	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$2.4B	+35.5%	+15.0%
Total Current Liabilities	$170.4M	$180.5M	$195.8M	$241.8M	$282.4M	+16.8%	+13.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$280.7M	$361.8M	$301.3M	$217.9M	$211.6M	−2.9%	−6.8%
Total Liabilities	$582.1M	$663.4M	$618.6M	$579.1M	$1.0B	+74.5%	+14.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$784.0M	$860.9M	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.4B	+16.5%	+15.2%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-240.2M	$-314.3M	$-240.3M	$-126.8M	$-147.9M	−16.6%	—
Invested Capital	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.5B	+16.5%	+10.6%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$101.8M	$71.8M	$194.4M	$231.3M	$254.7M	+10.1%	+25.8%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$50.4M	$54.7M	$60.4M	$65.3M	$80.5M	+23.3%	+12.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$7.6M	$10.2M	$13.1M	$15.6M	$15.0M	−3.8%	+18.5%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$37.4M	$53.0M	$30.3M	$40.6M	$27.6M	−32.0%	−7.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$64.4M	$18.8M	$164.1M	$190.7M	$227.1M	+19.1%	+37.0%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$56.8M	$8.6M	$151.0M	$175.1M	$212.1M	+21.1%	+39.0%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$15.4M	$16.1M	$5.5M	$6.7M	$39.7M	+492.5%	+26.7%
Dividends Paid	$22.0M	$21.8M	$23.8M	$29.3M	$34.1M	+16.4%	+11.6%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what FSS did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named FSS yet.

What happened · big days

14 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.75% from the one before, three times FSS’s median day (1.25%). On 3 of the 14, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.75%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayFSSWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 28, 2026−3.91%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
1Jan 28, 2026−3.91%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itGM −1.7 · F −0.8 · TSLA +0.1 · PCAR +1.9
2 Feb 6, 2026+3.83%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
2Feb 6, 2026+3.83%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itTSLA +3.5 · GM +1.1 · F +0.6 · PCAR −0.1
3 Mar 5, 2026−3.80%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, moved with FSS
3Mar 5, 2026−3.80%
Before our stories
−2.1% moved with FSSF −3.7 · GM −3.0 · PCAR −1.3 · TSLA −0.1
4 Apr 8, 2026+4.17%
Before our storiesgroup +5.3%, moved with FSS
4Apr 8, 2026+4.17%
Before our stories
+5.3% moved with FSSF +5.7 · GM +5.5 · PCAR +5.1 · TSLA −1.0
5 Apr 29, 2026+8.72%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
5Apr 29, 2026+8.72%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itTSLA −0.9 · PCAR −1.2 · F −1.3 · GM −3.0
6 May 29, 2026−5.85%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
6May 29, 2026−5.85%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itPCAR −1.6 · TSLA −1.4 · GM −1.3 · F +4.7
7 Jun 18, 2026+4.12%
Nothing on FSSgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
7Jun 18, 2026+4.12%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.9% did not move with itPCAR +1.4 · TSLA +1.0 · F +0.7 · GM −0.4
8 Jun 25, 2026+4.35%
Nothing on FSSgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
8Jun 25, 2026+4.35%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.9% did not move with itPCAR +4.0 · F +1.9 · TSLA −0.1 · GM −0.5
9 Jul 7, 2026−5.44%
Nothing on FSSgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
9Jul 7, 2026−5.44%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.1% did not move with itTSLA −4.0 · GM −2.3 · F −1.9 · PCAR −1.1
10 Jul 8, 2026−5.90%
Nothing on FSSgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
10Jul 8, 2026−5.90%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.0% did not move with itTSLA −2.2 · PCAR −1.6 · F −0.4 · GM +0.3
11 Jul 29, 2026−5.04%
Nothing on FSSgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
11Jul 29, 2026−5.04%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.0% did not move with itPCAR −3.1 · TSLA −3.0 · GM −1.0 · F +2.1
12 Jul 30, 2026+11.34%
Nothing on FSSgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
12Jul 30, 2026+11.34%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.6% did not move with itTSLA +3.5 · PCAR −0.1 · GM −1.1 · F −2.8
13 Nov 2, 2026+3.85%
Nothing on FSSgroup +1.9%, moved with FSS
13Nov 2, 2026+3.85%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% moved with FSSGM +2.9 · F +2.9 · TSLA +1.0 · PCAR +0.8
14 Nov 5, 2026−4.96%
Nothing on FSS
14Nov 5, 2026−4.96%
Nothing on FSSNo FSS story, brief or results filing in our record that day
No group that day

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of TSLA, GM, PCAR and F that day, the largest companies in FSS’s SEC industry; “moved with FSS” means the same direction and at least half the size.

Same industry

FSS against four carmaker peers, a year at 100

FSS is up 1.2% in a year. General Motors is up 30.6% and Paccar 5.9%. Of these four, Ford Motor (−4.1%) and Tesla (−10.3%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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FSS +1.2%. General Motors +30.6%, Paccar +5.9%, Ford Motor −4.1%, Tesla −10.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in FSS’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

TSLA	Tesla	$1.52T	−10.77%
GM	General Motors	$81.1B	−3.35%
PCAR	Paccar	$55.9B	−1.56%
F	Ford Motor	$50.4B	−1.10%
RIVN	Rivian Automotive	$16.7B	−5.48%
LI	Li Auto	$12.4B	+2.94%
OSK	Oshkosh	$8.9B	−4.64%
NIO	NIO	$7.5B	−3.03%