Rivian Automotive RIVN

Nasdaq · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · $16.7B

$13.29−5.48%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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RIVN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $13.291D −5.48%3M −18.91%SMA20 $12.64SMA50 $14.27RSI(14) 50.9

13.29

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 50.9

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$16.7B

Enterprise value$17.5B

Revenue$5.4B +8.4%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-3.2B +12.9%

Rule of 40-37.8%

ROIC-65.7%

True FCF Yield-19.4%

EPS, diluted$-3.07 +34.5%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$16.7B

Enterprise Value$17.5B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit121.78

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales3.26

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book3.63

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-19.4%

FCF Yield-14.9%

Owner Earn. Yield-31.9%

Earnings Yield-21.9%

Shareholder Yield—

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-3.07

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-37.8%

ROIC-65.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-45.6%

GP / Assets1.0%

ROE-79.4%

ROA-24.5%

Gross Margin2.7%

Oper. Margin-66.5%

Net Margin-67.7%

FCF Margin-46.2%

True FCF Margin-60.0%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−19.3%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev13.8%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y+8.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR+48.1%

EPS Growth Y/Y+34.5%

FCF Growth Y/Y+12.9%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+17.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$5.4B

Gross Profit (FY)$144.0M

Oper. Income (FY)$-3.6B

GAAP Net Income$-3.6B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-3.2B

Cash & Equiv$3.6B

Total Debt$4.4B

Net Cash (Debt)$-861.0M

Net Cash % MCap−5.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio2.33

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+16.07%

Perf Month−7.32%

Perf Quarter−16.94%

Perf Half Y−6.28%

Perf YTD−21.45%

SMA 20 Dist+5.17%$12.64

SMA 50 Dist−6.88%$14.27

SMA 100 Dist−13.44%$15.35

Window High−34.01%$20.14

Window Low+16.27%$11.43

RSI (14) · Vol50.958%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of RIVN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$5.2B ($97.3 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$1.7B ($31.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$2.1B ($38.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$61.0M ($1.1 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-3.6B ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-3.6B (-67.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-779.0M(-14.5% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$1.7B(31.7% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-2.5B(-46.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$741.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-3.2B(-60.0% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$55.0M	$1.7B	$4.4B	$5.0B	$5.4B	+8.4%	+214.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$520.0M	$4.8B	$6.5B	$6.2B	$5.2B	−15.0%	+78.2%
Gross Profit	$-465.0M	$-3.1B	$-2.0B	$-1.2B	$144.0M	+112.0%	—
Research & Development (R&D)	$1.9B	$1.9B	$2.0B	$1.6B	$1.7B	+3.4%	−2.6%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$1.2B	$1.8B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.1B	+9.9%	+13.5%
Total Operating Expenses	$3.8B	$3.7B	$3.7B	$3.5B	$3.7B	+6.9%	−0.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-4.2B	$-6.9B	$-5.7B	$-4.7B	$-3.6B	+23.5%	—
Interest Expense	$29.0M	$103.0M	$220.0M	$318.0M	$274.0M	−13.8%	+75.3%
Income Tax Expense	$0	$4.0M	$1.0M	$5.0M	$6.0M	+20.0%	—
GAAP Net Income	$-4.7B	$-6.8B	$-5.4B	$-4.7B	$-3.6B	+23.2%	—
Diluted EPS	$-22.98	$-7.40	$-5.74	$-4.69	$-3.07	+34.5%	—
Diluted Shares	204.0M	913.0M	947.0M	1.01B	1.19B	+17.1%	+55.3%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$18.4B	$12.1B	$7.9B	$5.3B	$3.6B	−32.4%	−33.6%
Inventory	$274.0M	$1.3B	$2.6B	$2.2B	$1.6B	−29.1%	+55.3%
Total Current Assets	$18.6B	$13.1B	$12.3B	$10.6B	$8.6B	−18.8%	−17.5%
Total Assets	$22.3B	$17.9B	$16.8B	$15.4B	$14.9B	−3.5%	−9.6%
Total Current Liabilities	$1.3B	$2.4B	$2.5B	$2.3B	$3.7B	+64.1%	+29.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$1.2B	$1.2B	$4.4B	$4.4B	$4.4B	−0.0%	+38.0%
Total Liabilities	$2.8B	$4.1B	$7.6B	$8.8B	$10.3B	+16.1%	+38.6%
Stockholders' Equity	$19.5B	$13.8B	$9.1B	$6.6B	$4.6B	−30.0%	−30.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$17.2B	$10.9B	$3.4B	$853.0M	$-861.0M	−200.9%	—
Invested Capital	$2.3B	$2.9B	$5.7B	$5.7B	$5.5B	−4.4%	+23.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$-2.6B	$-5.1B	$-4.9B	$-1.7B	$-779.0M	+54.6%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$197.0M	$652.0M	$937.0M	$1.0B	$784.0M	−24.0%	+41.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$570.0M	$987.0M	$821.0M	$692.0M	$741.0M	+7.1%	+6.8%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.8B	$1.4B	$1.0B	$1.1B	$1.7B	+49.9%	−1.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$-4.4B	$-6.4B	$-5.9B	$-2.9B	$-2.5B	+12.9%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$-5.0B	$-7.4B	$-6.7B	$-3.5B	$-3.2B	+9.0%	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what RIVN did at the next close after each story

Jul 9

Rivian to sell 75 million shares; Q2 revenue guidance in line with estimates

Yahoo Finance · 3:52 AM ET

—

Jul 7

Rivian crashes, Tesla feels pressure as Nasdaq slides on Samsung news

Yahoo Finance · 12:05 PM ET

—

What happened · big days

29 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 6.33% from the one before, three times RIVN’s median day (2.11%). On 1 of the 29, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±6.33%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayRIVNWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 5, 2025+23.36%
Resultsgroup +3.4%, did not move with it
1Nov 5, 2025+23.36%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
+3.4% did not move with itTSLA +4.0 · PCAR +3.9 · GM +2.8 · F +2.5
2 Nov 10, 2025+7.75%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
2Nov 10, 2025+7.75%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itTSLA +3.7 · GM +0.4 · PCAR +0.3 · F −0.4
3 Nov 11, 2025+9.81%
Before our storiesgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
3Nov 11, 2025+9.81%
Before our stories
−0.4% did not move with itF +1.1 · GM +0.2 · PCAR −1.0 · TSLA −1.3
4 Nov 13, 2025−6.45%
Before our storiesgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
4Nov 13, 2025−6.45%
Before our stories
−1.6% did not move with itTSLA −6.6 · PCAR −1.9 · F −1.3 · GM +0.1
5 Nov 14, 2025−7.81%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
5Nov 14, 2025−7.81%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itGM −1.9 · PCAR −1.0 · F −0.7 · TSLA +0.6
6 Dec 12, 2025+12.11%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
6Dec 12, 2025+12.11%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itTSLA +2.7 · F +0.9 · GM +0.1 · PCAR −1.1
7 Dec 18, 2025+15.03%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
7Dec 18, 2025+15.03%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itTSLA +3.5 · GM +0.8 · F +0.1 · PCAR −0.1
8 Dec 19, 2025+10.70%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
8Dec 19, 2025+10.70%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itGM +1.4 · F +1.1 · PCAR +0.1 · TSLA −0.5
9 Jan 14, 2026−7.16%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
9Jan 14, 2026−7.16%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itGM −2.4 · TSLA −1.8 · F −1.0 · PCAR −0.4
10 Feb 6, 2026+7.79%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
10Feb 6, 2026+7.79%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itTSLA +3.5 · GM +1.1 · F +0.6 · PCAR −0.1
11 Feb 13, 2026+26.64%
Resultsgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
11Feb 13, 2026+26.64%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 12 results filing
+1.1% did not move with itPCAR +1.7 · GM +1.4 · F +0.9 · TSLA +0.1
12 Feb 17, 2026−7.11%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
12Feb 17, 2026−7.11%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itTSLA −1.6 · PCAR −0.4 · F +0.1 · GM +0.2
13 Mar 12, 2026−8.11%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
13Mar 12, 2026−8.11%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itTSLA −3.1 · GM −1.8 · PCAR −1.1 · F −0.6
14 Mar 20, 2026−7.51%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
14Mar 20, 2026−7.51%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itTSLA −3.2 · PCAR −1.4 · GM −1.3 · F −1.0
15 May 1, 2026−8.41%
Resultsgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
15May 1, 2026−8.41%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 30 results filing
−1.6% did not move with itPCAR −2.3 · F −1.7 · GM −1.5 · TSLA +2.4
16 May 20, 2026+6.43%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, did not move with it
16May 20, 2026+6.43%
Before our stories
+2.7% did not move with itGM +4.8 · TSLA +3.3 · PCAR +2.1 · F +1.2
17 May 29, 2026+7.24%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
17May 29, 2026+7.24%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itF +4.7 · GM −1.3 · TSLA −1.4 · PCAR −1.6
18 Jun 5, 2026−9.77%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
18Jun 5, 2026−9.77%
Before our stories
−2.1% did not move with itTSLA −6.6 · F −2.9 · GM −1.3 · PCAR −1.2
19 Jun 9, 2026−6.59%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
19Jun 9, 2026−6.59%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itTSLA −3.0 · F −0.3 · GM −0.0 · PCAR +1.1
20 Jun 12, 2026+7.85%
Nothing on RIVNgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
20Jun 12, 2026+7.85%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.8% did not move with itTSLA +1.8 · F +0.9 · GM +0.8 · PCAR +0.8
21 Jun 22, 2026−8.60%
Nothing on RIVNgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
21Jun 22, 2026−8.60%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itF +0.4 · PCAR +1.0 · TSLA +1.1 · GM +1.4
22 Jun 29, 2026+7.55%
Nothing on RIVNgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
22Jun 29, 2026+7.55%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.8% did not move with itTSLA +8.5 · F −0.8 · PCAR −0.9 · GM −1.0
23 Jul 2, 2026+8.44%
Nothing on RIVNgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
23Jul 2, 2026+8.44%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itGM +0.6 · PCAR −1.4 · F −2.0 · TSLA −7.5
24 Jul 6, 2026+8.11%
Nothing on RIVNgroup +4.4%, moved with RIVN
24Jul 6, 2026+8.11%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.4% moved with RIVNTSLA +6.7 · PCAR +5.4 · F +3.5 · GM +2.4
25 Jul 7, 2026−18.12%
1 storygroup −2.1%, did not move with it
25Jul 7, 2026−18.12%
1 story “Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Drops On Samsung News; Rivian Crashes, Tesla Feels The Heat (Live Coverage)” · Yahoo Finance
−2.1% did not move with itTSLA −4.0 · GM −2.3 · F −1.9 · PCAR −1.1
26 Jul 9, 2026+8.76%
2 storiesgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
26Jul 9, 2026+8.76%
2 stories “Rivian stock down on 75 million share sale, preannounces Q2 revenue” · Yahoo Finance
+0.7% did not move with itTSLA +3.2 · F +0.8 · PCAR +0.6 · GM +0.5
27 Jul 31, 2026−9.57%
Resultsgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
27Jul 31, 2026−9.57%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 30 results filing
−0.1% did not move with itF −1.2 · PCAR −0.8 · GM +0.5 · TSLA +0.8
28 Aug 19, 2026+6.43%
Nothing on RIVNgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
28Aug 19, 2026+6.43%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.8% did not move with itTSLA +4.2 · F +4.1 · GM +1.5 · PCAR −0.4
29 Nov 2, 2026+8.47%
Nothing on RIVNgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
29Nov 2, 2026+8.47%
Nothing on RIVNNo RIVN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% did not move with itGM +2.9 · F +2.9 · TSLA +1.0 · PCAR +0.8

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of TSLA, GM, PCAR and F that day, the largest companies in RIVN’s SEC industry; “moved with RIVN” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). RIVN reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 4, 2025

day 1+23.36%day 6+40.16%

Reported Feb 12, 2026

day 1+26.64%day 6+6.86%

Reported Apr 30, 2026

day 1−8.41%day 6−13.29%

Reported Jul 30, 2026

day 1−9.57%day 6−4.93%

Next report: expected late January to mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 29 report: +22.79%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is RIVN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

RIVN against four carmaker peers, a year at 100

RIVN is down 7.7% in a year. General Motors is up 30.6%, Paccar 7.6% and Ford Motor is down 4.1%. Of these four, only Tesla (−10.3%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

RIVN −7.7%. General Motors +30.6%, Paccar +7.6%, Ford Motor −4.1%, Tesla −10.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in RIVN’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

TSLA	Tesla	$1.52T	−10.77%
GM	General Motors	$81.1B	−3.35%
PCAR	Paccar	$55.9B	−1.56%
F	Ford Motor	$50.4B	−1.10%
LI	Li Auto	$12.4B	+2.94%
OSK	Oshkosh	$8.9B	−4.64%
NIO	NIO	$7.5B	−3.03%
FSS	Federal Signal	$7.2B	−4.96%