Oshkosh OSK

NYSE · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies · $8.9B

$136.75−4.64%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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OSK Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $136.751D −4.64%3M −12.00%SMA20 $133.75SMA50 $138.70RSI(14) 50.4

136.75

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 50.4

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$8.9B

EV / True FCF16.3x

Revenue$10.4B −2.9%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$580.0M +129.7%

Rule of 403.0%

ROIC14.1%

True FCF Yield6.6%

EPS, diluted$6.29 +66.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$8.9B

Enterprise Value$9.5B

EV / True FCF16.34

EV / FCF15.33

EV / Gross Profit5.21

EV / EBIT10.08

EV / Sales0.91

P / E (GAAP)13.68

P / FCF14.33

P / Oper. CF11.30

P / Book1.95

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield6.6%

FCF Yield7.0%

Owner Earn. Yield7.5%

Earnings Yield7.3%

Shareholder Yield+4.2%

Buyback Yield3.1%

Dividend Yield1.49%

Dividend / sh$2.04

Payout Ratio20%

FCF / sh$10.14

EPS (diluted)$6.29

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 403.0%

ROIC14.1%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)12.0%

GP / Assets18.1%

ROE14.3%

ROA6.4%

Gross Margin17.5%

Oper. Margin9.0%

Net Margin6.2%

FCF Margin5.9%

True FCF Margin5.6%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion96%

Accrual Ratio−1.4%

SBC % of FCF6.1%

SBC % of Rev0.4%

Reinvest. Rate43%

Sales Growth Y/Y−2.9%

Sales 3Y CAGR+8.0%

EPS Growth Y/Y+66.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+129.7%

FCF 3Y CAGR+23.0%

Share Change Y/Y−1.9%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$10.4B

Gross Profit (FY)$1.8B

Oper. Income (FY)$939.5M

GAAP Net Income$647.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$580.0M

Cash & Equiv$479.8M

Total Debt$1.1B

Net Cash (Debt)$-621.1M

Net Cash % MCap−7.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)1.8y

Current Ratio1.9460.97M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+1.09%

Perf Month+6.33%

Perf Quarter−11.92%

Perf Half Y−10.66%

Perf YTD−9.91%

SMA 20 Dist+2.24%$133.75

SMA 50 Dist−1.40%$138.70

SMA 100 Dist−4.80%$143.64

Window High−13.16%$157.48

Window Low+14.81%$119.11

RSI (14) · Vol50.436%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of OSK revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$8.6B ($82.5 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$173.7M ($1.7 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$818.7M ($7.9 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$292.5M ($2.8 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$647.0M ($5.1 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$647.0M (6.2% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$783.4M(7.5% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$165.4M(1.6% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$618.0M(5.9% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$38.0M(6.1% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$580.0M(5.6% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$7.7B	$8.3B	$9.7B	$10.7B	$10.4B	−2.9%	+7.7%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$6.5B	$7.2B	$8.0B	$8.8B	$8.6B	−1.8%	+7.4%
Gross Profit	$1.3B	$1.1B	$1.7B	$2.0B	$1.8B	−7.6%	+9.4%
Research & Development (R&D)	$103.1M	$113.4M	$133.6M	$169.1M	$173.7M	+2.7%	+13.9%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$666.5M	$662.8M	$810.4M	$852.4M	$818.7M	−4.0%	+5.3%
Total Operating Expenses	$676.1M	$682.1M	$843.2M	$958.7M	$879.5M	−8.3%	+6.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$592.1M	$372.3M	$837.6M	$1.0B	$939.5M	−7.0%	+12.2%
Income Tax Expense	$36.4M	$97.5M	$190.0M	$210.0M	$191.5M	−8.8%	+51.4%
GAAP Net Income	$508.9M	$173.9M	$598.0M	$681.4M	$647.0M	−5.0%	+6.2%
Diluted EPS	—	—	—	—	$6.29	—	—
Diluted Shares	69.2M	66.1M	65.9M	65.8M	64.6M	−1.9%	−1.7%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$1.4B	$805.9M	$125.4M	$204.9M	$479.8M	+134.2%	−23.2%
Inventory	$1.4B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.4B	+4.8%	+13.9%
Total Current Assets	$4.6B	$4.5B	$4.5B	$4.5B	$5.2B	+14.2%	+3.2%
Total Assets	$7.0B	$7.7B	$9.1B	$9.4B	$10.1B	+6.9%	+9.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$2.2B	$2.4B	$3.1B	$3.0B	$2.7B	−10.8%	+5.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$824.0M	$604.7M	$772.5M	$961.8M	$1.1B	+14.5%	+7.5%
Stockholders' Equity	$3.4B	$3.2B	$3.7B	$4.2B	$4.5B	+9.1%	+7.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$551.8M	$201.2M	$-647.1M	$-756.9M	$-621.1M	+17.9%	—
Invested Capital	$2.8B	$3.0B	$4.4B	$4.9B	$5.2B	+4.9%	+16.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$1.2B	$601.3M	$599.6M	$550.1M	$783.4M	+42.4%	−10.5%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$104.0M	$107.6M	$159.9M	$200.1M	$224.1M	+12.0%	+21.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$27.2M	$28.6M	$31.9M	$38.1M	$38.0M	−0.3%	+8.7%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$104.4M	$269.5M	$325.3M	$281.0M	$165.4M	−41.1%	+12.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$1.1B	$331.8M	$274.3M	$269.1M	$618.0M	+129.7%	−13.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$1.1B	$303.2M	$242.4M	$231.0M	$580.0M	+151.1%	−14.6%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$107.8M	$155.0M	$22.5M	$116.0M	$278.0M	+139.7%	+26.7%
Dividends Paid	$90.4M	$97.3M	$107.2M	$120.0M	$130.4M	+8.7%	+9.6%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what OSK did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named OSK yet.

What happened · big days

18 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.59% from the one before, three times OSK’s median day (1.53%). On 3 of the 18, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.59%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayOSKWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 10, 2025+5.08%
Before our storiesgroup +3.4%, moved with OSK
1Dec 10, 2025+5.08%
Before our stories
+3.4% moved with OSKGM +4.7 · PCAR +4.2 · F +2.5 · TSLA +1.4
2 Jan 2, 2026+5.25%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
2Jan 2, 2026+5.25%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itPCAR +1.9 · F +1.7 · GM −0.4 · TSLA −2.6
3 Jan 6, 2026+6.41%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
3Jan 6, 2026+6.41%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itPCAR +3.7 · F +2.5 · GM −1.2 · TSLA −4.1
4 Feb 3, 2026+6.60%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
4Feb 3, 2026+6.60%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itPCAR +2.6 · GM +1.7 · TSLA +0.0 · F −0.6
5 Feb 4, 2026+4.74%
Before our storiesgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
5Feb 4, 2026+4.74%
Before our stories
+0.7% did not move with itPCAR +0.7 · GM +0.7 · F +0.7 · TSLA −3.8
6 Feb 6, 2026+5.03%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
6Feb 6, 2026+5.03%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itTSLA +3.5 · GM +1.1 · F +0.6 · PCAR −0.1
7 Mar 31, 2026+6.95%
Before our storiesgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
7Mar 31, 2026+6.95%
Before our stories
+2.8% did not move with itTSLA +4.6 · F +2.9 · PCAR +2.7 · GM +2.4
8 Apr 8, 2026+6.75%
Before our storiesgroup +5.3%, moved with OSK
8Apr 8, 2026+6.75%
Before our stories
+5.3% moved with OSKF +5.7 · GM +5.5 · PCAR +5.1 · TSLA −1.0
9 Apr 15, 2026−7.17%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
9Apr 15, 2026−7.17%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itGM −2.1 · PCAR −1.6 · F 0.0 · TSLA +7.6
10 Apr 30, 2026+6.06%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
10Apr 30, 2026+6.06%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itTSLA +2.4 · PCAR +0.6 · GM +0.3 · F −1.3
11 May 8, 2026−9.86%
Resultsgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
11May 8, 2026−9.86%
ResultsFirst close after the May 8 results filing
+0.8% did not move with itPCAR +0.2 · GM +0.5 · F +1.1 · TSLA +4.0
12 May 20, 2026+5.62%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, did not move with it
12May 20, 2026+5.62%
Before our stories
+2.7% did not move with itGM +4.8 · TSLA +3.3 · PCAR +2.1 · F +1.2
13 Jun 11, 2026+5.52%
Nothing on OSKgroup +3.0%, moved with OSK
13Jun 11, 2026+5.52%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.0% moved with OSKTSLA +4.6 · PCAR +3.1 · F +2.9 · GM +1.8
14 Jun 25, 2026+5.33%
Nothing on OSKgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
14Jun 25, 2026+5.33%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.9% did not move with itPCAR +4.0 · F +1.9 · TSLA −0.1 · GM −0.5
15 Jul 1, 2026−5.71%
Nothing on OSKgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
15Jul 1, 2026−5.71%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itGM −2.0 · F −1.9 · PCAR +0.9 · TSLA +1.1
16 Jul 29, 2026−6.35%
Nothing on OSKgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
16Jul 29, 2026−6.35%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.0% did not move with itPCAR −3.1 · TSLA −3.0 · GM −1.0 · F +2.1
17 Aug 4, 2026+5.63%
Nothing on OSKgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
17Aug 4, 2026+5.63%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itPCAR +3.0 · TSLA +1.6 · GM +0.7 · F −1.3
18 Nov 5, 2026−4.64%
Nothing on OSK
18Nov 5, 2026−4.64%
Nothing on OSKNo OSK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
No group that day

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of TSLA, GM, PCAR and F that day, the largest companies in OSK’s SEC industry; “moved with OSK” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). OSK reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 29, 2026

day 1−0.55%day 6+11.85%

Reported May 8, 2026

day 1−9.86%day 6−21.34%

Reported Jul 28, 2026

day 1−1.58%day 6+1.14%

Reported Oct 29, 2026

day 1−1.93%day 6−0.86%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 29 report: −0.86%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is OSK’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

OSK against four carmaker peers, a year at 100

OSK is up 12.6% in a year. General Motors is up 30.6%. Of these four, Paccar (+5.9%), Ford Motor (−4.1%) and Tesla (−10.3%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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OSK +12.6%. General Motors +30.6%, Paccar +5.9%, Ford Motor −4.1%, Tesla −10.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in OSK’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

TSLA	Tesla	$1.52T	−10.77%
GM	General Motors	$81.1B	−3.35%
PCAR	Paccar	$55.9B	−1.56%
F	Ford Motor	$50.4B	−1.10%
RIVN	Rivian Automotive	$16.7B	−5.48%
LI	Li Auto	$12.4B	+2.94%
NIO	NIO	$7.5B	−3.03%
FSS	Federal Signal	$7.2B	−4.96%