Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI

Nasdaq · Retail-Variety Stores · $5.7B

$93.00−1.18%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2022 →

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OLLI Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $93.001D −1.18%3M +17.16%SMA20 $90.17SMA50 $83.69RSI(14) 58.7

93.00

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 58.7

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$5.7B

EV / True FCF31.0x

Revenue$2.6B +16.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$181.6M +82.1%

Rule of 4023.9%

ROIC12.4%

True FCF Yield3.2%

EPS, diluted$3.89 +20.4%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$5.7B

Enterprise Value$5.6B

EV / True FCF31.01

EV / FCF28.93

EV / Gross Profit5.25

EV / EBIT18.92

EV / Sales2.13

P / E (GAAP)23.65

P / FCF29.23

P / Oper. CF19.19

P / Book3.01

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield3.2%

FCF Yield3.4%

Owner Earn. Yield3.2%

Earnings Yield4.2%

Shareholder Yield+1.1%

Buyback Yield1.3%

Dividend Yield1.09%

Dividend / sh$1.01

Payout Ratio0%

FCF / sh$3.28

EPS (diluted)$3.89

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4023.9%

ROIC12.4%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)10.6%

GP / Assets36.3%

ROE12.7%

ROA8.1%

Gross Margin40.5%

Oper. Margin11.2%

Net Margin9.1%

FCF Margin7.3%

True FCF Margin6.9%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion81%

Accrual Ratio−1.9%

SBC % of FCF6.7%

SBC % of Rev0.5%

Reinvest. Rate34%

Sales Growth Y/Y+16.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR+13.2%

EPS Growth Y/Y+20.4%

FCF Growth Y/Y+82.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR+45.9%

Share Change Y/Y0.0%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$2.6B

Gross Profit (FY)$1.1B

Oper. Income (FY)$297.7M

GAAP Net Income$240.6M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$181.6M

Cash & Equiv$259.7M

Total Debt$202.2M

Net Cash (Debt)$57.4M

Net Cash % MCap+1.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)1.0y

Current Ratio2.4159.40M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+0.63%

Perf Month+7.98%

Perf Quarter+13.91%

Perf Half Y+13.73%

Perf YTD−0.73%

SMA 20 Dist+3.14%$90.17

SMA 50 Dist+11.13%$83.69

SMA 100 Dist+19.03%$78.13

Window High−2.67%$95.56

Window Low+50.29%$61.88

RSI (14) · Vol58.750%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of OLLI revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.6B ($59.5 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$775.3M ($29.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$57.1M ($2.2 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$240.6M ($9.1 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)

GAAP Net Income$240.6M (9.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$296.5M(11.2% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$101.9M(3.8% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$194.7M(7.3% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$13.1M(6.7% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$181.6M(6.9% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$1.8B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.6B	+16.6%	+10.9%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.6B	+16.1%	+10.1%
Gross Profit	$681.2M	$656.1M	$832.4M	$914.5M	$1.1B	+17.3%	+12.0%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$447.6M	$490.6M	$562.7M	$612.4M	$709.0M	+15.8%	+12.2%
Total Operating Expenses	$476.7M	$525.2M	$604.6M	$664.9M	$775.3M	+16.6%	+12.9%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$204.6M	$130.9M	$227.8M	$249.5M	$297.7M	+19.3%	+9.8%
Interest Expense	—	—	—	—	$15.4M	—	—
Income Tax Expense	$46.9M	$31.1M	$61.0M	$66.1M	$75.8M	+14.7%	+12.7%
GAAP Net Income	$157.5M	$102.8M	$181.4M	$199.8M	$240.6M	+20.4%	+11.2%
Diluted EPS	$2.43	$1.64	$2.92	$3.23	$3.89	+20.4%	+12.5%
Diluted Shares	64.9M	62.7M	62.1M	61.8M	61.8M	+0.0%	−1.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$247.0M	$210.6M	$266.3M	$205.1M	$259.7M	+26.6%	+1.3%
Inventory	$467.3M	$470.5M	$505.8M	$552.5M	$650.3M	+17.7%	+8.6%
Total Current Assets	$726.8M	$754.3M	$871.4M	$993.8M	$964.1M	−3.0%	+7.3%
Total Assets	$2.0B	$2.0B	$2.3B	$2.6B	$3.0B	+15.4%	+10.6%
Total Current Liabilities	$263.3M	$259.3M	$315.6M	$304.3M	$400.4M	+31.6%	+11.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$202.2M	$202.2M	$202.2M	$202.2M	$202.2M	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Liabilities	$684.5M	$682.0M	$786.4M	$865.8M	$1.1B	+23.2%	+11.7%
Stockholders' Equity	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$1.9B	+11.4%	+10.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$44.7M	$8.4M	$64.0M	$2.9M	$57.4M	+1893.7%	+6.4%
Invested Capital	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.8B	+8.2%	+10.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$45.0M	$114.3M	$254.5M	$227.5M	$296.5M	+30.4%	+60.2%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$24.9M	$28.7M	$34.9M	$44.0M	$55.2M	+25.5%	+22.0%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$8.0M	$10.0M	$12.2M	$19.4M	$13.1M	−32.8%	+12.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$35.0M	$51.7M	$124.4M	$120.6M	$101.9M	−15.5%	+30.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$10.0M	$62.7M	$130.1M	$106.9M	$194.7M	+82.1%	+109.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$2.0M	$52.7M	$117.9M	$87.5M	$181.6M	+107.6%	+208.6%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$220.0M	$41.8M	$52.5M	$53.0M	$73.8M	+39.3%	−23.9%
Dividends Paid	—	—	—	—	$0	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what OLLI did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named OLLI yet.

What happened · big days

26 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.67% from the one before, three times OLLI’s median day (1.56%). On 3 of the 26, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.67%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayOLLIWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 5, 2026+5.07%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
1Jan 5, 2026+5.07%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itCOST +2.5 · TGT +1.6 · DG +1.5 · WMT −0.0
2 Jan 9, 2026+5.29%
Before our storiesgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
2Jan 9, 2026+5.29%
Before our stories
+0.1% did not move with itWMT +1.3 · COST +1.1 · TGT −0.8 · DG −0.9
3 Feb 6, 2026+5.43%
Before our storiesgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
3Feb 6, 2026+5.43%
Before our stories
+2.3% did not move with itTGT +4.2 · WMT +3.3 · DG +1.2 · COST +1.2
4 Mar 2, 2026−5.28%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
4Mar 2, 2026−5.28%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itDG −2.3 · COST −0.8 · WMT −0.7 · TGT −0.5
5 Mar 4, 2026+5.05%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
5Mar 4, 2026+5.05%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itWMT −0.1 · COST −0.1 · TGT −0.6 · DG −0.9
6 Apr 9, 2026−5.06%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
6Apr 9, 2026−5.06%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itDG −2.7 · COST +0.2 · TGT +0.7 · WMT +1.5
7 Apr 21, 2026−5.91%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
7Apr 21, 2026−5.91%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itDG −1.9 · COST +0.8 · WMT +1.3 · TGT +1.5
8 May 11, 2026−7.88%
Before our storiesgroup −3.8%, did not move with it
8May 11, 2026−7.88%
Before our stories
−3.8% did not move with itDG −7.6 · TGT −5.4 · WMT −2.2 · COST −0.9
9 May 14, 2026+6.10%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
9May 14, 2026+6.10%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itDG +3.2 · TGT +1.3 · COST +0.8 · WMT +0.8
10 May 28, 2026+5.00%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
10May 28, 2026+5.00%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itDG +5.3 · WMT +0.3 · TGT +0.3 · COST −0.8
11 Jun 4, 2026−6.61%
Before our storiesgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
11Jun 4, 2026−6.61%
Before our stories
−0.0% did not move with itDG −1.5 · TGT −0.8 · WMT +0.7 · COST +1.1
12 Jun 11, 2026+6.83%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
12Jun 11, 2026+6.83%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% did not move with itDG +4.0 · TGT +3.6 · WMT −0.1 · COST −0.8
13 Jun 17, 2026−5.55%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −3.3%, moved with OLLI
13Jun 17, 2026−5.55%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.3% moved with OLLIDG −4.5 · TGT −4.2 · WMT −2.4 · COST −2.1
14 Jun 30, 2026+6.29%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
14Jun 30, 2026+6.29%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.6% did not move with itWMT −1.2 · COST −1.2 · DG −2.0 · TGT −2.5
15 Jul 6, 2026−6.79%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
15Jul 6, 2026−6.79%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.3% did not move with itTGT −3.2 · DG −1.6 · WMT −1.1 · COST −0.1
16 Jul 8, 2026−9.04%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
16Jul 8, 2026−9.04%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.0% did not move with itDG −0.6 · COST +0.6 · WMT +1.4 · TGT +3.8
17 Aug 7, 2026+4.71%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
17Aug 7, 2026+4.71%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.2% did not move with itTGT +1.8 · COST −0.1 · WMT −0.2 · DG −0.7
18 Aug 20, 2026−5.84%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
18Aug 20, 2026−5.84%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% did not move with itWMT −9.2 · COST −2.5 · DG −1.4 · TGT −0.5
19 Sep 9, 2026−5.85%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
19Sep 9, 2026−5.85%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itTGT −3.2 · DG −2.6 · COST −0.8 · WMT −0.2
20 Sep 14, 2026+4.70%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
20Sep 14, 2026+4.70%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% did not move with itDG +3.7 · TGT +1.8 · WMT +1.8 · COST +1.6
21 Sep 15, 2026−4.70%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −2.3%, did not move with it
21Sep 15, 2026−4.70%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.3% did not move with itDG −3.5 · TGT −2.7 · COST −1.9 · WMT −0.9
22 Sep 21, 2026+5.10%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +0.0%, did not move with it
22Sep 21, 2026+5.10%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.0% did not move with itWMT +0.7 · COST +0.3 · TGT −0.3 · DG −0.4
23 Oct 14, 2026+5.42%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +3.2%, moved with OLLI
23Oct 14, 2026+5.42%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.2% moved with OLLIDG +4.0 · WMT +3.5 · COST +2.9 · TGT +2.2
24 Oct 23, 2026−5.30%
Nothing on OLLIgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
24Oct 23, 2026−5.30%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itDG −4.6 · TGT −3.4 · COST −1.5 · WMT −1.0
25 Oct 29, 2026+7.17%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
25Oct 29, 2026+7.17%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% did not move with itDG +3.1 · WMT +2.1 · TGT +1.9 · COST +1.4
26 Nov 4, 2026+5.77%
Nothing on OLLIgroup +4.5%, moved with OLLI
26Nov 4, 2026+5.77%
Nothing on OLLINo OLLI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.5% moved with OLLIDG +8.5 · TGT +5.6 · WMT +3.5 · COST +2.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of WMT, COST, TGT and DG that day, the largest companies in OLLI’s SEC industry; “moved with OLLI” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). OLLI reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 1 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Dec 9, 2025

day 1−3.98%day 6−7.58%

Reported Mar 12, 2026

day 1+1.45%day 6−1.58%

Reported Jun 3, 2026

day 1+0.62%day 6−1.20%

Reported Sep 2, 2026

day 1+2.12%day 6−0.58%

Next report: expected early DecemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Sep 2 report: +28.56%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2022 →

Each line is OLLI’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

OLLI against four retail peers, a year at 100

OLLI is down 24.7% in a year. Target is up 78.8%, Dollar General 39.1%, Walmart 25.9% and Costco 13.4%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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OLLI −24.7%. Target +78.8%, Dollar General +39.1%, Walmart +25.9%, Costco +13.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in OLLI’s SEC industry (Retail-Variety Stores) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

WMT	Walmart	$1.03T	−1.12%
COST	Costco	$464.1B	+1.83%
TGT	Target	$74.1B	−3.16%
DG	Dollar General	$31.2B	−2.57%
DLTR	Dollar Tree	$28.2B	−6.16%
BJ	BJ's Wholesale Club	$14.2B	+0.32%
FIVE	Five Below	$13.9B	−4.27%
PSMT	Pricesmart	$5.1B	−1.60%