Walmart WMT

Nasdaq · Retail-Variety Stores · $1.03T

$127.72−1.12%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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WMT Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $127.721D −1.12%3M +13.37%SMA20 $119.87SMA50 $112.02RSI(14) 69.5

127.72

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 69.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on WMT, the first close moved a median +0.45%. Up 4 of 4; over the next three trading days, a median +2.91%.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$1.03T

EV / True FCF93.5x

Revenue$713.2B +4.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$11.3B +17.9%

Rule of 406.8%

ROIC16.5%

True FCF Yield1.1%

EPS, diluted$2.73 +13.3%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$1.03T

Enterprise Value$1,058B

EV / True FCF93.49

EV / FCF70.92

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT35.48

EV / Sales1.48

P / E (GAAP)46.95

P / FCF68.88

P / Oper. CF24.73

P / Book9.71

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield1.1%

FCF Yield1.5%

Owner Earn. Yield0.2%

Earnings Yield2.1%

Shareholder Yield+1.2%

Buyback Yield0.8%

Dividend Yield0.74%

Dividend / sh$0.94

Payout Ratio34%

FCF / sh$1.88

EPS (diluted)$2.73

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 406.8%

ROIC16.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)11.0%

GP / Assets—

ROE20.7%

ROA7.7%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin4.2%

Net Margin3.1%

FCF Margin2.1%

True FCF Margin1.6%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion68%

Accrual Ratio−6.9%

SBC % of FCF24.1%

SBC % of Rev0.5%

Reinvest. Rate64%

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y+13.3%

FCF Growth Y/Y+17.9%

FCF 3Y CAGR+7.6%

Share Change Y/Y−0.7%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$713.2B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$29.8B

GAAP Net Income$21.9B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$11.3B

Cash & Equiv$11.3B

Total Debt$41.7B

Net Cash (Debt)$-30.4B

Net Cash % MCap−3.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)2.8y

Current Ratio0.797.93B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+5.34%

Perf Month+18.08%

Perf Quarter+14.19%

Perf Half Y−1.90%

Perf YTD−0.16%

SMA 20 Dist+6.54%$119.87

SMA 50 Dist+14.01%$112.02

SMA 100 Dist+13.68%$112.35

Window High−4.83%$134.20

Window Low+24.45%$102.63

RSI (14) · Vol69.527%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of WMT revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$535.4B ($75.1 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$147.9B ($20.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$7.9B ($1.1 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$21.9B ($3.1 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)

GAAP Net Income$21.9B (3.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$41.6B(5.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$26.6B(3.7% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$14.9B(2.1% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$3.6B(24.1% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$11.3B(1.6% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$572.8B	$611.3B	$648.1B	$681.0B	$713.2B	+4.7%	+5.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$429.0B	$463.7B	$490.1B	$511.8B	$535.4B	+4.6%	+5.7%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$117.8B	$127.1B	$131.0B	$139.9B	$147.9B	+5.8%	+5.9%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$25.9B	$20.4B	$27.0B	$29.3B	$29.8B	+1.6%	+3.5%
Income Tax Expense	$4.8B	$5.7B	$5.6B	$6.2B	$7.2B	+17.0%	+10.9%
GAAP Net Income	$13.7B	$11.7B	$15.5B	$19.4B	$21.9B	+12.6%	+12.5%
Diluted EPS	$1.62	$1.42	$1.91	$2.41	$2.73	+13.3%	+13.9%
Diluted Shares	8.41B	8.20B	8.11B	8.08B	8.02B	−0.7%	−1.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$14.8B	$8.8B	$9.9B	$9.5B	$11.3B	+18.7%	−6.5%
Inventory	$56.5B	$56.6B	$54.9B	$56.4B	$58.9B	+4.3%	+1.0%
Total Current Assets	$81.1B	$75.7B	$76.9B	$79.5B	$84.9B	+6.8%	+1.2%
Total Assets	$244.9B	$243.2B	$252.4B	$260.8B	$284.7B	+9.1%	+3.8%
Total Current Liabilities	$87.4B	$92.2B	$92.4B	$96.6B	$107.5B	+11.3%	+5.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$40.5B	$43.0B	$43.0B	$38.6B	$41.7B	+8.1%	+0.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$91.9B	$83.8B	$90.3B	$97.4B	$105.9B	+8.7%	+3.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-25.6B	$-34.2B	$-33.1B	$-29.1B	$-30.4B	−4.6%	—
Invested Capital	$117.5B	$117.9B	$123.4B	$126.5B	$136.3B	+7.7%	+3.8%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$24.2B	$28.8B	$35.7B	$36.4B	$41.6B	+14.1%	+14.5%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	—	—	—	—	$10.7B	—	—
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$1.2B	$1.6B	$2.1B	$2.8B	$3.6B	+30.1%	+32.7%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$13.1B	$16.9B	$20.6B	$23.8B	$26.6B	+12.0%	+19.4%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$11.1B	$12.0B	$15.1B	$12.7B	$14.9B	+17.9%	+7.7%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$9.9B	$10.4B	$13.0B	$9.9B	$11.3B	+14.4%	+3.4%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$9.8B	$9.9B	$2.8B	$4.5B	$8.1B	+80.0%	−4.7%
Dividends Paid	$6.2B	$6.1B	$6.1B	$6.7B	$7.5B	+12.2%	+5.1%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what WMT did at the next close after each story

Sep 3

DoJ requests beef price data from Amazon, Walmart in antitrust inquiry

Investing.com · 6:38 PM ET

—

Aug 28

Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) Results Show US Consumers Cut Back but Still Find Room for Splurges

Yahoo Finance · 10:41 AM ET

+0.45%

Aug 28

Gap surges on earnings beat, guidance upgrade and Old Navy CEO appointment

ZeroHedge · 10:15 AM ET

+0.45%

Aug 28

Walmart settles US government opioid lawsuit; terms not disclosed

Investing.com · 10:00 AM ET

+0.45%

Aug 21

Walmart posts $713.2B revenue, 4.7% growth as WMT falls to 2026 low

Yahoo Finance · 8:31 PM ET

+2.69%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close

consumer2+0.45%

regulation1+0.45%

earnings1+2.69%

What happened · big days

28 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.63% from the one before, three times WMT’s median day (0.88%). On 12 of the 28, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.63%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayWMTWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 20, 2025+6.46%
Resultsgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
1Nov 20, 2025+6.46%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 20 results filing
−0.6% did not move with itDG +0.6 · COST +0.3 · DLTR −1.4 · TGT −2.8
2 Nov 25, 2025+2.83%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with WMT
2Nov 25, 2025+2.83%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with WMTDLTR +5.4 · DG +2.6 · TGT +2.4 · COST +0.9
3 Jan 12, 2026+3.00%
Before our storiesgroup +2.8%, moved with WMT
3Jan 12, 2026+3.00%
Before our stories
+2.8% moved with WMTDG +4.3 · DLTR +3.7 · COST +2.0 · TGT +0.6
4 Feb 2, 2026+4.13%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
4Feb 2, 2026+4.13%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itTGT +3.9 · COST +3.0 · DG +0.1 · DLTR −0.3
5 Feb 3, 2026+2.94%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, moved with WMT
5Feb 3, 2026+2.94%
Before our stories
+1.9% moved with WMTDG +3.2 · DLTR +2.1 · TGT +1.6 · COST +1.0
6 Feb 6, 2026+3.34%
Before our storiesgroup +2.4%, moved with WMT
6Feb 6, 2026+3.34%
Before our stories
+2.4% moved with WMTTGT +4.2 · DLTR +3.5 · DG +1.2 · COST +1.2
7 Feb 12, 2026+3.78%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
7Feb 12, 2026+3.78%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itDLTR +2.7 · COST +2.1 · DG +0.9 · TGT −1.7
8 Feb 17, 2026−3.76%
Before our storiesgroup +0.0%, did not move with it
8Feb 17, 2026−3.76%
Before our stories
+0.0% did not move with itDG −2.7 · COST −0.6 · TGT +0.7 · DLTR +1.9
9 Feb 27, 2026+2.84%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
9Feb 27, 2026+2.84%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itCOST +2.4 · DG +1.4 · DLTR −0.4 · TGT −0.9
10 Mar 5, 2026−3.52%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, moved with WMT
10Mar 5, 2026−3.52%
Before our stories
−2.0% moved with WMTDG −3.3 · COST −2.4 · DLTR −1.6 · TGT +0.2
11 Apr 7, 2026−3.39%
Before our storiesgroup −2.6%, moved with WMT
11Apr 7, 2026−3.39%
Before our stories
−2.6% moved with WMTDLTR −4.2 · DG −3.0 · TGT −2.2 · COST −0.5
12 Apr 8, 2026+3.89%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
12Apr 8, 2026+3.89%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itTGT +3.0 · COST +1.7 · DG +1.5 · DLTR −0.8
13 Apr 30, 2026+3.06%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
13Apr 30, 2026+3.06%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itCOST +1.6 · DG +1.5 · TGT +1.5 · DLTR +1.5
14 May 21, 2026−7.27%
Resultsgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
14May 21, 2026−7.27%
ResultsFirst close after the May 21 results filing
+1.4% did not move with itCOST −2.2 · DG +0.5 · DLTR +2.4 · TGT +3.1
15 May 29, 2026−2.65%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
15May 29, 2026−2.65%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itCOST −3.9 · TGT −1.2 · DG +0.7 · DLTR +3.0
16 Jun 3, 2026+3.39%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
16Jun 3, 2026+3.39%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itDLTR +2.8 · TGT +1.3 · COST +0.8 · DG −1.1
17 Jun 25, 2026−2.71%
Nothing on WMTgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
17Jun 25, 2026−2.71%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.3% did not move with itCOST −2.0 · DG −1.4 · TGT −1.1 · DLTR −1.0
18 Jul 1, 2026−3.92%
Nothing on WMTgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
18Jul 1, 2026−3.92%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itCOST −1.1 · TGT −0.3 · DG +0.1 · DLTR +0.2
19 Jul 2, 2026+2.78%
Nothing on WMTgroup +2.5%, moved with WMT
19Jul 2, 2026+2.78%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.5% moved with WMTCOST +2.9 · DG +2.6 · DLTR +2.4 · TGT −0.1
20 Jul 30, 2026−2.73%
Nothing on WMTgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
20Jul 30, 2026−2.73%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.9% did not move with itCOST −2.0 · TGT −0.9 · DG −0.9 · DLTR −0.3
21 Aug 20, 2026−9.15%
Resultsgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
21Aug 20, 2026−9.15%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 20 results filing
−1.9% did not move with itDLTR −2.6 · COST −2.5 · DG −1.4 · TGT −0.5
22 Aug 24, 2026+2.69%
1 storygroup +2.6%, moved with WMT
22Aug 24, 2026+2.69%
1 story “Walmart Earnings Accelerate, But WMT Stock Sinks To A 2026 Low” · Yahoo Finance
+2.6% moved with WMTDLTR +4.0 · TGT +2.7 · COST +2.5 · DG +1.6
23 Sep 24, 2026−2.66%
Nothing on WMTgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
23Sep 24, 2026−2.66%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itCOST −0.9 · TGT −0.1 · DLTR +0.3 · DG +1.6
24 Sep 30, 2026−2.70%
Nothing on WMTgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
24Sep 30, 2026−2.70%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.7% did not move with itDG −2.5 · COST −1.5 · TGT +0.2 · DLTR +0.6
25 Oct 14, 2026+3.46%
Nothing on WMTgroup +3.4%, moved with WMT
25Oct 14, 2026+3.46%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.4% moved with WMTDLTR +4.7 · DG +4.0 · COST +2.9 · TGT +2.2
26 Oct 22, 2026+2.82%
Nothing on WMTgroup +4.1%, moved with WMT
26Oct 22, 2026+2.82%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.1% moved with WMTDG +5.3 · DLTR +4.4 · TGT +3.8 · COST +2.0
27 Nov 2, 2026+3.38%
Nothing on WMTgroup +2.7%, moved with WMT
27Nov 2, 2026+3.38%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.7% moved with WMTDLTR +3.5 · COST +2.8 · DG +2.6 · TGT +2.6
28 Nov 4, 2026+3.45%
Nothing on WMTgroup +7.1%, moved with WMT
28Nov 4, 2026+3.45%
Nothing on WMTNo WMT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+7.1% moved with WMTDLTR +9.6 · DG +8.5 · TGT +5.6 · COST +2.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of COST, TGT, DG and DLTR that day, the largest companies in WMT’s SEC industry; “moved with WMT” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). WMT reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 20, 2025

day 1+6.46%day 6+9.84%

Reported Feb 19, 2026

day 1−1.38%day 6−1.74%

Reported May 21, 2026

day 1−7.27%day 6−11.54%

Reported Aug 20, 2026

day 1−9.15%day 6−10.21%

Next report: expected mid NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 20 report: +13.01%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is WMT’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

WMT against four retail peers, a year at 100

WMT is up 25.9% in a year. Target is up 78.8%, Dollar General 42.8% and Dollar Tree 39.0%. Of these four, only Costco (+13.4%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

WMT +25.9%. Target +78.8%, Dollar General +42.8%, Dollar Tree +39.0%, Costco +13.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in WMT’s SEC industry (Retail-Variety Stores) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

COST	Costco	$464.1B	—
TGT	Target	$74.1B	—
DG	Dollar General	$31.2B	—
DLTR	Dollar Tree	$28.2B	—
BJ	BJ's Wholesale Club	$14.2B	—
FIVE	Five Below	$13.9B	—
OLLI	Ollie's Bargain Outlet	$5.7B	—
PSMT	Pricesmart	$5.1B	—