Target TGT

NYSE · Retail-Variety Stores · $74.1B

$157.95−3.16%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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TGT Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $157.951D −3.16%3M +3.90%SMA20 $154.08SMA50 $156.57RSI(14) 53.8

157.95

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 53.8

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

2 stories have a settled next close so far (2 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$74.1B

EV / True FCF32.6x

Revenue$104.8B −1.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.6B −36.7%

Rule of 401.0%

ROIC15.8%

True FCF Yield3.4%

EPS, diluted$8.13 −8.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$74.1B

Enterprise Value$83.1B

EV / True FCF32.56

EV / FCF29.33

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT16.25

EV / Sales0.79

P / E (GAAP)19.99

P / FCF26.13

P / Oper. CF11.29

P / Book4.58

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield3.4%

FCF Yield3.8%

Owner Earn. Yield3.8%

Earnings Yield5.0%

Shareholder Yield+2.9%

Buyback Yield0.6%

Dividend Yield2.87%

Dividend / sh$4.54

Payout Ratio55%

FCF / sh$6.24

EPS (diluted)$8.13

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 401.0%

ROIC15.8%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)11.2%

GP / Assets—

ROE22.9%

ROA6.2%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin4.9%

Net Margin3.5%

FCF Margin2.7%

True FCF Margin2.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion77%

Accrual Ratio−4.8%

SBC % of FCF9.9%

SBC % of Rev0.3%

Reinvest. Rate57%

Sales Growth Y/Y−1.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR−1.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y−8.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y−36.7%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−1.3%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$104.8B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$5.1B

GAAP Net Income$3.7B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.6B

Cash & Equiv$5.5B

Total Debt$14.6B

Net Cash (Debt)$-9.1B

Net Cash % MCap−12.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)5.1y

Current Ratio0.94454.30M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+4.04%

Perf Month+4.66%

Perf Quarter+5.51%

Perf Half Y+25.48%

Perf YTD+21.33%

SMA 20 Dist+2.51%$154.08

SMA 50 Dist+0.88%$156.57

SMA 100 Dist+5.50%$149.71

Window High−7.03%$169.89

Window Low+33.36%$118.44

RSI (14) · Vol53.837%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of TGT revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$75.5B ($72.1 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$24.2B ($23.1 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$1.4B ($1.3 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$3.7B ($3.5 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)

GAAP Net Income$3.7B (3.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$6.6B(6.3% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.7B(3.6% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$2.8B(2.7% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$281.0M(9.9% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$2.6B(2.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$106.0B	$109.1B	$107.4B	$106.6B	$104.8B	−1.7%	−0.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$75.0B	$82.3B	$77.8B	$76.5B	$75.5B	−1.3%	+0.2%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$19.8B	$20.6B	$21.5B	$22.0B	$21.5B	−2.0%	+2.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$8.9B	$3.8B	$5.7B	$5.6B	$5.1B	−8.1%	−13.0%
Interest Expense	$421.0M	$478.0M	$502.0M	$411.0M	$445.0M	+8.3%	+1.4%
Income Tax Expense	$2.0B	$638.0M	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.1B	−9.2%	−14.2%
GAAP Net Income	$6.9B	$2.8B	$4.1B	$4.1B	$3.7B	−9.4%	−14.5%
Diluted EPS	$14.10	$5.98	$8.94	$8.86	$8.13	−8.2%	−12.9%
Diluted Shares	492.7M	464.7M	462.8M	461.8M	455.6M	−1.3%	−1.9%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$5.9B	$2.2B	$3.8B	$4.8B	$5.5B	+15.2%	−1.8%
Inventory	$13.9B	$13.5B	$11.9B	$12.7B	$12.3B	−3.4%	−3.0%
Total Current Assets	$21.6B	$17.8B	$17.5B	$19.5B	$20.0B	+2.8%	−1.9%
Total Assets	$53.8B	$53.3B	$55.4B	$57.8B	$59.5B	+3.0%	+2.5%
Total Current Liabilities	$21.7B	$19.5B	$19.3B	$20.8B	$21.2B	+2.1%	−0.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$11.7B	$14.3B	$14.3B	$14.1B	$14.6B	+3.5%	+5.6%
Stockholders' Equity	$12.8B	$11.2B	$13.4B	$14.7B	$16.2B	+10.2%	+6.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-5.8B	$-12.1B	$-10.5B	$-9.3B	$-9.1B	+2.5%	—
Invested Capital	$18.6B	$23.3B	$23.9B	$24.0B	$25.2B	+5.3%	+7.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$8.6B	$4.0B	$8.6B	$7.4B	$6.6B	−10.9%	−6.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.1B	+5.1%	+4.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$228.0M	$220.0M	$251.0M	$304.0M	$281.0M	−7.6%	+5.4%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$3.5B	$5.5B	$4.8B	$2.9B	$3.7B	+28.9%	+1.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$5.1B	$-1.5B	$3.8B	$4.5B	$2.8B	−36.7%	−13.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$4.9B	$-1.7B	$3.6B	$4.2B	$2.6B	−38.8%	−14.8%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$7.2B	$2.6B	$0	$1.0B	$408.0M	−59.5%	−51.2%
Dividends Paid	$1.5B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.0B	$2.1B	+0.3%	+7.3%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what TGT did at the next close after each story

Aug 20

Target delivers earnings beat, CEO 'encouraged' by turnaround traction

Yahoo Finance · 6:31 PM ET

+4.54%

Aug 19

Target TGT beats earnings as FY2026 revenue declines 1.7% to $104.8B

Yahoo Finance · 8:06 AM ET

+4.28%

What happened · big days

19 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.45% from the one before, three times TGT’s median day (1.15%). On 7 of the 19, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.45%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayTGTWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 21, 2025+4.71%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 21, 2025+4.71%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itDLTR +3.3 · DG +1.4 · COST +0.6 · WMT −1.7
2 Nov 24, 2025−3.52%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
2Nov 24, 2025−3.52%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itDLTR −1.5 · COST −1.4 · WMT −1.2 · DG −0.0
3 Nov 26, 2025+3.72%
Before our storiesgroup +2.9%, moved with TGT
3Nov 26, 2025+3.72%
Before our stories
+2.9% moved with TGTDG +4.3 · DLTR +3.9 · WMT +2.0 · COST +1.6
4 Jan 26, 2026−3.83%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
4Jan 26, 2026−3.83%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itDLTR −2.7 · COST −0.6 · WMT −0.1 · DG +2.3
5 Feb 2, 2026+3.85%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
5Feb 2, 2026+3.85%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itWMT +4.1 · COST +3.0 · DG +0.1 · DLTR −0.3
6 Feb 6, 2026+4.24%
Before our storiesgroup +2.3%, moved with TGT
6Feb 6, 2026+4.24%
Before our stories
+2.3% moved with TGTDLTR +3.5 · WMT +3.3 · DG +1.2 · COST +1.2
7 Mar 3, 2026+6.74%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
7Mar 3, 2026+6.74%
ResultsFirst close after the Mar 3 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itWMT +0.6 · COST +0.5 · DG +0.3 · DLTR −1.2
8 May 11, 2026−5.44%
Before our storiesgroup −3.3%, moved with TGT
8May 11, 2026−5.44%
Before our stories
−3.3% moved with TGTDG −7.6 · DLTR −4.5 · WMT −2.2 · COST −0.9
9 May 20, 2026−3.86%
Resultsgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
9May 20, 2026−3.86%
ResultsFirst close after the May 20 results filing
−0.4% did not move with itWMT −2.5 · COST −1.9 · DG +1.1 · DLTR +3.2
10 Jun 11, 2026+3.64%
Nothing on TGTgroup +2.0%, moved with TGT
10Jun 11, 2026+3.64%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% moved with TGTDLTR +4.1 · DG +4.0 · WMT −0.1 · COST −0.8
11 Jun 17, 2026−4.19%
Nothing on TGTgroup −3.2%, moved with TGT
11Jun 17, 2026−4.19%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.2% moved with TGTDG −4.5 · DLTR −3.9 · WMT −2.4 · COST −2.1
12 Jun 24, 2026+5.29%
Nothing on TGTgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
12Jun 24, 2026+5.29%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% did not move with itDLTR +5.2 · DG +4.0 · COST +0.4 · WMT −0.3
13 Jun 29, 2026−4.61%
Nothing on TGTgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
13Jun 29, 2026−4.61%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.0% did not move with itDG −1.7 · DLTR −1.0 · WMT −0.9 · COST −0.6
14 Jul 8, 2026+3.82%
Nothing on TGTgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
14Jul 8, 2026+3.82%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.7% did not move with itWMT +1.4 · DLTR +0.8 · COST +0.6 · DG −0.6
15 Aug 19, 2026+4.28%
Results · 1 storygroup +0.3%, did not move with it
15Aug 19, 2026+4.28%
Results · 1 storyFirst close after the Aug 19 results filing
+0.3% did not move with itDG +1.2 · DLTR +1.0 · COST −0.5 · WMT −0.8
16 Aug 21, 2026+4.54%
1 storygroup +1.9%, did not move with it
16Aug 21, 2026+4.54%
1 story “Target delivers earnings beat, CEO 'encouraged' by turnaround traction” · Yahoo Finance
+1.9% did not move with itDLTR +2.4 · DG +2.4 · COST +1.5 · WMT −0.1
17 Aug 25, 2026−3.78%
Nothing on TGTgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
17Aug 25, 2026−3.78%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.4% did not move with itDG −2.2 · DLTR −1.7 · COST −1.2 · WMT −1.0
18 Oct 22, 2026+3.76%
Nothing on TGTgroup +3.6%, moved with TGT
18Oct 22, 2026+3.76%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.6% moved with TGTDG +5.3 · DLTR +4.4 · WMT +2.8 · COST +2.0
19 Nov 4, 2026+5.63%
Nothing on TGTgroup +6.0%, moved with TGT
19Nov 4, 2026+5.63%
Nothing on TGTNo TGT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+6.0% moved with TGTDLTR +9.6 · DG +8.5 · WMT +3.5 · COST +2.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of WMT, COST, DG and DLTR that day, the largest companies in TGT’s SEC industry; “moved with TGT” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). TGT reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 19, 2025

day 1−2.77%day 6+1.43%

Reported Mar 3, 2026

day 1+6.74%day 6+6.69%

Reported May 20, 2026

day 1−3.86%day 6+1.11%

Reported Aug 19, 2026

day 1+4.28%day 6+7.58%

Next report: expected mid NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 19 report: +6.96%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is TGT’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

TGT against four retail peers, a year at 100

TGT is up 78.8% in a year. All four did less: Dollar General (+39.1%), Dollar Tree (+30.4%), Walmart (+25.9%) and Costco (+13.4%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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TGT +78.8%. Dollar General +39.1%, Dollar Tree +30.4%, Walmart +25.9%, Costco +13.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in TGT’s SEC industry (Retail-Variety Stores) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

WMT	Walmart	$1.03T	−1.12%
COST	Costco	$464.1B	+1.83%
DG	Dollar General	$31.2B	−2.57%
DLTR	Dollar Tree	$28.2B	−6.16%
BJ	BJ's Wholesale Club	$14.2B	+0.32%
FIVE	Five Below	$13.9B	−4.27%
OLLI	Ollie's Bargain Outlet	$5.7B	−1.18%
PSMT	Pricesmart	$5.1B	−1.60%