ZM Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $88.821D −3.29%3M −17.15%SMA20 $96.04SMA50 $94.71RSI(14) 37.6
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.
The numbers
fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$28.2B
EV / True FCF23.2x
Revenue$4.9B +4.4%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B +6.4%
Rule of 4043.9%
ROIC10.3%
True FCF Yield4.1%
EPS, diluted$6.18 +92.5%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$28.2B
Enterprise Value$26.9B
EV / True FCF23.16
EV / FCF14.00
EV / Gross Profit7.18
EV / EBIT23.98
EV / Sales5.53
P / E (GAAP)14.85
P / FCF14.67
P / Oper. CF14.19
P / Book2.88
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield4.1%
FCF Yield6.8%
Owner Earn. Yield4.3%
Earnings Yield6.7%
Shareholder Yield+3.0%
Buyback Yield5.7%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$6.18
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4043.9%
ROIC10.3%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)22.6%
GP / Assets31.4%
ROE19.4%
ROA15.9%
Gross Margin77.0%
Oper. Margin23.1%
Net Margin39.0%
FCF Margin39.5%
True FCF Margin23.9%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion101%
Accrual Ratio−0.7%
SBC % of FCF39.5%
SBC % of Rev15.6%
Reinvest. Rate46%
Sales Growth Y/Y+4.4%
Sales 3Y CAGR+3.5%
EPS Growth Y/Y+92.5%
FCF Growth Y/Y+6.4%
FCF 3Y CAGR+17.5%
Share Change Y/Y−2.5%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$4.9B
Gross Profit (FY)$3.7B
Oper. Income (FY)$1.1B
GAAP Net Income$1.9B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B
Cash & Equiv$1.3B
Total Debt—
Net Cash (Debt)$1.3B
Net Cash % MCap+4.5%
Debt / FCF (yrs)—
Current Ratio4.33
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−9.05%
Perf Month−6.28%
Perf Quarter−15.00%
Perf Half Y−18.03%
Perf YTD−1.92%
SMA 20 Dist−7.52%$96.04
SMA 50 Dist−6.22%$94.71
SMA 100 Dist−5.99%$94.48
Window High−20.61%$111.88
Window Low+7.17%$82.88
RSI (14) · Vol37.643%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of ZM revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$760.8M(39.5% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.2B(23.9% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
$4.1BFY22
$4.4BFY23
$4.5BFY24
$4.7BFY25
$4.9BFY26
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
FY2026
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$4.1B
$4.4B
$4.5B
$4.7B
$4.9B
+4.4%
+4.4%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$1.1B
$1.1B
$1.1B
$1.1B
$1.1B
−0.9%
+1.5%
Gross Profit ▸
$3.0B
$3.3B
$3.4B
$3.5B
$3.7B
+6.1%
+5.3%
Research & Development (R&D)
$363.0M
$774.1M
$803.2M
$852.4M
$844.9M
−0.9%
+23.5%
Total Operating Expenses
$2.0B
$3.0B
$2.9B
$2.7B
$2.6B
−3.5%
+7.3%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$1.1B
$245.4M
$525.3M
$813.3M
$1.1B
+38.2%
+1.4%
Income Tax Expense
$-274.0M
$145.6M
$194.8M
$305.3M
$522.1M
+71.0%
—
GAAP Net Income ▸
$1.4B
$103.7M
$637.5M
$1.0B
$1.9B
+88.1%
+8.4%
Diluted EPS ▸
$4.50
$0.34
$2.07
$3.21
$6.18
+92.5%
+8.3%
Diluted Shares
305.8M
304.2M
308.5M
315.1M
307.3M
−2.5%
+0.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$1.1B
$1.1B
$1.6B
$1.4B
$1.3B
−5.7%
+4.6%
Total Current Assets
$6.2B
$6.4B
$7.9B
$8.7B
$8.7B
−0.2%
+8.8%
Total Assets
$7.6B
$8.1B
$9.9B
$11.0B
$12.0B
+8.8%
+12.2%
Total Current Liabilities
$1.6B
$1.7B
$1.8B
$1.9B
$2.0B
+5.0%
+6.1%
Total Liabilities
$1.8B
$1.9B
$1.9B
$2.1B
$2.2B
+4.8%
+5.0%
Stockholders' Equity
$5.8B
$6.2B
$8.0B
$8.9B
$9.8B
+9.8%
+14.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$1.1B
$1.1B
$1.6B
$1.4B
$1.3B
−5.7%
+4.6%
Invested Capital
$4.7B
$5.1B
$6.5B
$7.6B
$8.5B
+12.6%
+16.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$1.6B
$1.3B
$1.6B
$1.9B
$2.0B
+2.2%
+5.5%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$48.2M
$82.3M
$104.5M
$122.6M
$132.8M
+8.3%
+28.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$477.3M
$1.3B
$1.1B
$931.3M
$760.8M
−18.3%
+12.4%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$132.6M
$103.8M
$127.0M
$136.6M
$65.0M
−52.4%
−16.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$1.5B
$1.2B
$1.5B
$1.8B
$1.9B
+6.4%
+6.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$995.4M
$-99.3M
$414.7M
$877.4M
$1.2B
+32.6%
+4.0%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$0
$1.0B
$0
$1.1B
$1.6B
+48.2%
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 4.76% from the one before, three times ZM’s median day (1.59%). On 2 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.76%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayZMWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 25, 2025+9.85%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
1Nov 25, 2025+9.85%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 24 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itMETA +3.8 · GOOGL +1.5 · APP −0.7 · NBIS −3.3
2 Jan 26, 2026+11.28%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
2Jan 26, 2026+11.28%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itAPP +2.1 · META +2.1 · GOOGL +1.6 · NBIS −3.2
3 Feb 26, 2026−11.58%
Resultsgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
3Feb 26, 2026−11.58%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 25 results filing
−0.3% did not move with itGOOGL −1.8 · NBIS −1.2 · META +0.5 · APP +5.5
4 Mar 4, 2026+6.15%
Before our storiesgroup +6.0%, moved with ZM
4Mar 4, 2026+6.15%
Before our stories
+6.0% moved with ZMNBIS +12.7 · APP +10.0 · META +1.9 · GOOGL −0.1
5 Apr 10, 2026−5.70%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
5Apr 10, 2026−5.70%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itGOOGL −0.4 · META +0.2 · APP +3.2 · NBIS +6.3
6 Apr 15, 2026+8.05%
Before our storiesgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
6Apr 15, 2026+8.05%
Before our stories
+2.2% did not move with itAPP +7.2 · NBIS +3.0 · META +1.4 · GOOGL +1.3
7 Apr 29, 2026+5.07%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
7Apr 29, 2026+5.07%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itNBIS +4.2 · GOOGL +0.1 · META −0.3 · APP −1.3
8 May 1, 2026+6.47%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
8May 1, 2026+6.47%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itNBIS +11.8 · APP +3.1 · GOOGL +0.2 · META −0.5
9 May 22, 2026+9.19%
Resultsgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
9May 22, 2026+9.19%
ResultsFirst close after the May 21 results filing
−1.0% did not move with itMETA +0.5 · APP −0.9 · GOOGL −1.2 · NBIS −2.4
10 May 26, 2026−5.25%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
10May 26, 2026−5.25%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itNBIS −3.1 · META +0.3 · GOOGL +1.5 · APP +6.8
11 Jun 1, 2026+9.87%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
11Jun 1, 2026+9.87%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itNBIS +14.5 · APP +0.1 · GOOGL −1.0 · META −5.1
12 Jun 3, 2026−5.08%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
12Jun 3, 2026−5.08%
Before our stories
−2.1% did not move with itAPP −5.8 · NBIS −3.4 · GOOGL −0.8 · META +4.2
13 Jun 17, 2026−5.08%
Nothing on ZMgroup −4.0%, moved with ZM
13Jun 17, 2026−5.08%
Nothing on ZMNo ZM story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with ZMAPP −6.9 · META −5.4 · GOOGL −2.5 · NBIS +6.0
−1.1% did not move with itNBIS −3.6 · GOOGL −1.4 · APP −0.8 · META +1.1
15 Aug 27, 2026+6.86%
Nothing on ZMgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
15Aug 27, 2026+6.86%
Nothing on ZMNo ZM story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.5% did not move with itNBIS +2.1 · APP +1.5 · GOOGL −0.4 · META −0.9
16 Sep 8, 2026−4.83%
Nothing on ZMgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
16Sep 8, 2026−4.83%
Nothing on ZMNo ZM story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itAPP −2.7 · META −0.5 · GOOGL −0.0 · NBIS +7.7
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of GOOGL, META, APP and NBIS that day, the largest companies in ZM’s SEC industry; “moved with ZM” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). ZM reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Nov 24, 2025
day 1+9.85%day 6+8.96%
Reported Feb 25, 2026
day 1−11.58%day 6−9.48%
Reported May 21, 2026
day 1+9.19%day 6+15.37%
Reported Aug 25, 2026
day 1−7.03%day 6−5.01%
Next report: expected late NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 25 report: −11.99%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is ZM’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
ZM against four same-industry peers, a year at 100
ZM is up 8.7% in a year. All four did less: Nebius Group (+8.2%), Alphabet (+3.6%), Meta Platforms (+1.3%) and AppLovin (−42.6%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in ZM’s SEC industry (Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.