Morgan Stanley cuts Coinbase target 53% on weak trading activity
Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase and cut its price target 53% on weak crypto trading activity and doubts about an earnings recovery. The call puts trading volumes and the timing of a recovery at the center of Coinbase’s next earnings test.
STOCK PHOTO · TIMA MIROSHNICHENKOThe story
Analyst Michael Cyprys downgraded Coinbase at Morgan Stanley and reduced the firm’s price target by 53%, citing weak crypto trading activity and doubts about an earnings recovery.
Coinbase reported $7.2B in revenue for FY 2025, up 9.4% year over year, with $4.45 in diluted EPS and an 18.1% net margin. Those annual figures provide the latest company-level backdrop for a downgrade focused on the durability and timing of earnings improvement.
The direct mechanism is Coinbase’s trading business: weaker crypto activity can reduce transaction revenue, while uncertainty over an earnings recovery makes it harder to assess when operating performance could improve.
The downgrade is an analyst view rather than a reported change to Coinbase’s operations. The key uncertainty is whether crypto trading activity rebounds sufficiently to support the earnings recovery Cyprys questioned.
The next important evidence will be Coinbase’s upcoming earnings update and its transaction activity and earnings figures. Those numbers should clarify whether the weakness is temporary or extending into the next reporting period.
Our read · Mon, Nov 2
Morgan Stanley cut COIN’s price target 53% as analyst Michael Cyprys cited weak crypto trading and recovery doubts.
Why. The downgrade challenges the timing of an earnings recovery because Coinbase’s transaction business is exposed to crypto trading activity. FY 2025 revenue was $7.2B, up 9.4% year over year, with $4.45 in diluted EPS and an 18.1% net margin, but those annual figures do not resolve the near-term volume question. A dated earnings catalyst is not established here, so the read remains non-directional.
Both cases
What could change this view: A rebound in crypto trading activity and stronger earnings could invalidate the downgrade thesis.
Who reported it · 1
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Reported by CoinDesk as Coinbase downgraded at Morgan Stanely; price target slashed 53% on weak earnings outlook
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