AIRO Group AIRO

Nasdaq · Aircraft · $171M

$4.78−11.81%Nov 5 close · Databento

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AIRO Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $4.781D −11.81%3M −43.36%SMA20 $5.27SMA50 $6.34RSI(14) 34.4

4.78

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 34.4

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$171M

Enterprise value$99.4M

Revenue$90.9M +4.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-55.4M −271.6%

Rule of 40-34.5%

ROIC6.0%

True FCF Yield-32.4%

EPS, diluted$-0.17 +92.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$171M

Enterprise Value$99.4M

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit1.83

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales1.09

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book0.23

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-32.4%

FCF Yield-20.8%

Owner Earn. Yield-8.8%

Earnings Yield-2.4%

Shareholder Yield−0.3%

Buyback Yield11.4%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh$-1.13

EPS (diluted)$-0.17

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-34.5%

ROIC6.0%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-5.3%

GP / Assets7.0%

ROE-0.6%

ROA-0.5%

Gross Margin59.9%

Oper. Margin-31.6%

Net Margin-4.5%

FCF Margin-39.1%

True FCF Margin-61.0%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio+3.7%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev21.9%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR—

EPS Growth Y/Y+92.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y−271.6%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+44.5%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$90.9M

Gross Profit (FY)$54.4M

Oper. Income (FY)$-28.8M

GAAP Net Income$-4.1M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-55.4M

Cash & Equiv$74.6M

Total Debt$2.9M

Net Cash (Debt)$71.7M

Net Cash % MCap+41.9%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio3.4531.56M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−12.13%

Perf Month−24.61%

Perf Quarter−43.90%

Perf Half Y−33.80%

Perf YTD−44.35%

SMA 20 Dist−9.32%$5.27

SMA 50 Dist−24.61%$6.34

SMA 100 Dist−31.03%$6.93

Window High−55.37%$10.71

Window Low+0.63%$4.75

RSI (14) · Vol34.474%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AIRO revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$36.5M ($40.1 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$17.9M ($19.7 / $100)

Operating Expenses$65.3M ($71.8 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-4.1M ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-4.1M (-4.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-32.4M(-35.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.1M(3.4% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-35.5M(-39.1% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$19.9M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-55.4M(-61.0% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$86.9M	$90.9M	+4.6%	+4.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$28.6M	$36.5M	+27.5%	+27.5%
Gross Profit	$58.3M	$54.4M	−6.7%	−6.7%
Research & Development (R&D)	$13.1M	$17.9M	+36.4%	+36.4%
Total Operating Expenses	$75.8M	$83.2M	+9.8%	+9.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-17.4M	$-28.8M	−65.0%	—
Income Tax Expense	$9.2M	$7.0M	−23.5%	−23.5%
GAAP Net Income	$-38.7M	$-4.1M	+89.4%	—
Diluted EPS	$-2.36	$-0.17	+92.8%	—
Diluted Shares	16,387	23,678	+44.5%	+44.5%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$20.9M	$74.6M	+256.5%	+256.5%
Inventory	$8.8M	$11.6M	+31.9%	+31.9%
Total Current Assets	$42.6M	$106.5M	+150.0%	+150.0%
Total Assets	$701.0M	$774.1M	+10.4%	+10.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$96.6M	$30.9M	−68.1%	−68.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$28.7M	$2.9M	−90.0%	−90.0%
Total Liabilities	$152.3M	$34.9M	−77.0%	−77.0%
Stockholders' Equity	$548.7M	$739.2M	+34.7%	+34.7%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-7.8M	$71.7M	+1022.5%	—
Invested Capital	$556.5M	$667.5M	+20.0%	+20.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$21.5M	$-32.4M	−251.0%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$12.6M	$12.0M	−5.0%	−5.0%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$716,000	$19.9M	+2680.2%	+2680.2%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$789,000	$3.1M	+289.6%	+289.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$20.7M	$-35.5M	−271.6%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$20.0M	$-55.4M	−377.3%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	—	$19.4M	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what AIRO did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named AIRO yet.

What happened · big days

18 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 9.96% from the one before, three times AIRO’s median day (3.32%). On 4 of the 18, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±9.96%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayAIROWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 14, 2025−20.78%
Resultsgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
1Nov 14, 2025−20.78%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 14 results filing
−1.2% did not move with itJOBY −2.6 · AVAV −1.4 · ACHR −1.0 · BA −0.0
2 Nov 19, 2025−10.04%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
2Nov 19, 2025−10.04%
Before our stories
−1.9% did not move with itBA −2.1 · JOBY −1.9 · ACHR −1.8 · AVAV −0.2
3 Nov 20, 2025−11.39%
Before our storiesgroup −4.0%, did not move with it
3Nov 20, 2025−11.39%
Before our stories
−4.0% did not move with itACHR −8.0 · JOBY −4.6 · BA −3.4 · AVAV −2.3
4 Dec 12, 2025−12.37%
Before our storiesgroup −3.7%, did not move with it
4Dec 12, 2025−12.37%
Before our stories
−3.7% did not move with itJOBY −4.6 · AVAV −4.3 · ACHR −3.0 · BA +1.8
5 Dec 22, 2025+13.33%
Before our storiesgroup +3.4%, did not move with it
5Dec 22, 2025+13.33%
Before our stories
+3.4% did not move with itAVAV +5.1 · JOBY +3.9 · ACHR +2.9 · BA +1.3
6 Jan 2, 2026+12.96%
Before our storiesgroup +7.0%, moved with AIRO
6Jan 2, 2026+12.96%
Before our stories
+7.0% moved with AIROJOBY +8.8 · ACHR +8.1 · AVAV +5.9 · BA +4.9
7 Jan 6, 2026+10.18%
Before our storiesgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
7Jan 6, 2026+10.18%
Before our stories
+2.3% did not move with itAVAV +6.6 · ACHR +3.0 · JOBY +1.6 · BA +0.8
8 Jan 8, 2026+11.27%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
8Jan 8, 2026+11.27%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itAVAV +8.3 · ACHR +3.4 · BA −0.3 · JOBY −1.9
9 Feb 5, 2026−11.20%
Before our storiesgroup −7.3%, moved with AIRO
9Feb 5, 2026−11.20%
Before our stories
−7.3% moved with AIROJOBY −8.9 · AVAV −7.9 · ACHR −6.6 · BA +0.4
10 Feb 6, 2026+13.68%
Before our storiesgroup +9.9%, moved with AIRO
10Feb 6, 2026+13.68%
Before our stories
+9.9% moved with AIROACHR +12.5 · JOBY +11.2 · AVAV +8.6 · BA +2.6
11 Mar 31, 2026−11.26%
Resultsgroup +4.3%, did not move with it
11Mar 31, 2026−11.26%
ResultsFirst close after the Mar 31 results filing
+4.3% did not move with itAVAV +3.4 · JOBY +4.0 · ACHR +4.7 · BA +5.2
12 May 14, 2026−15.52%
Resultsgroup −2.8%, did not move with it
12May 14, 2026−15.52%
ResultsFirst close after the May 14 results filing
−2.8% did not move with itBA −4.7 · JOBY −3.8 · ACHR −1.7 · AVAV +2.7
13 May 28, 2026+21.95%
Before our storiesgroup +5.5%, did not move with it
13May 28, 2026+21.95%
Before our stories
+5.5% did not move with itAVAV +18.3 · JOBY +7.1 · ACHR +4.0 · BA +2.0
14 Jun 5, 2026−11.53%
Before our storiesgroup −11.1%, moved with AIRO
14Jun 5, 2026−11.53%
Before our stories
−11.1% moved with AIROJOBY −14.3 · ACHR −13.2 · AVAV −9.0 · BA −0.9
15 Jul 14, 2026+13.55%
Nothing on AIROgroup +3.3%, did not move with it
15Jul 14, 2026+13.55%
Nothing on AIRONo AIRO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% did not move with itACHR +6.6 · JOBY +5.5 · AVAV +1.2 · BA +0.7
16 Aug 13, 2026+26.15%
Resultsgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
16Aug 13, 2026+26.15%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 13 results filing
+1.7% did not move with itACHR +10.8 · JOBY +3.8 · BA −0.4 · AVAV −2.3
17 Aug 14, 2026−10.64%
Nothing on AIROgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
17Aug 14, 2026−10.64%
Nothing on AIRONo AIRO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% did not move with itACHR −5.0 · JOBY −4.1 · BA +0.6 · AVAV +1.8
18 Nov 5, 2026−11.81%
Nothing on AIRO
18Nov 5, 2026−11.81%
Nothing on AIRONo AIRO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
No group that day

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of BA, AVAV, JOBY and ACHR that day, the largest companies in AIRO’s SEC industry; “moved with AIRO” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). AIRO reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 14, 2025

day 1−20.78%day 6−37.33%

Reported Mar 31, 2026

day 1−11.26%day 6+2.92%

Reported May 14, 2026

day 1−15.52%day 6−20.05%

Reported Aug 13, 2026

day 1+26.15%day 6−2.94%

Next report: expected mid NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 13 report: −43.70%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2025 →

Each line is AIRO’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

AIRO against four aircraft peers, a year at 100

AIRO is down 64.5% in a year. Boeing is down 9.0%, Archer Aviation 49.6% and Joby Aviation 64.4%. Of these four, only AeroVironment (−69.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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AIRO −64.5%. Boeing −9.0%, Archer Aviation −49.6%, Joby Aviation −64.4%, AeroVironment −69.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in AIRO’s SEC industry (Aircraft) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

BA	Boeing	$139.9B	—
AVAV	AeroVironment	$5.7B	—
JOBY	Joby Aviation	$5.0B	—
ACHR	Archer Aviation	$3.2B	—
BETA	BETA Technologies	$1.9B	—
UAVS	AgEagle Aerial Systems	$22M	—
DUKR	DUKE Robotics	$11M	—