Aerovironment AVAV
Nasdaq · Aircraft · $5.7B$102.08−9.85%Nov 5 close · Databento
AVAV Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $102.081D −9.85%3M −46.03%SMA20 $122.82SMA50 $138.33RSI(14) 27.1
102.08
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 27.1
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via DatabentoMarket cap$5.7B
Enterprise value$6.1B
Revenue$2.0B +140.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-179.3M −575.5%
Rule of 40133.8%
ROIC-6.0%
True FCF Yield-3.1%
EPS, diluted$-5.40 −448.4%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$5.7B
Enterprise Value$6.1B
EV / True FCF—
EV / FCF—
EV / Gross Profit12.21
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales3.09
P / E (GAAP)—
P / FCF—
P / Oper. CF—
P / Book1.30
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield-3.1%
FCF Yield-2.5%
Owner Earn. Yield-1.8%
Earnings Yield-4.6%
Shareholder Yield−0.6%
Buyback Yield0.1%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh$-2.77
EPS (diluted)$-5.40
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40133.8%
ROIC-6.0%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)-2.9%
GP / Assets8.8%
ROE-6.0%
ROA-4.6%
Gross Margin25.3%
Oper. Margin-15.7%
Net Margin-13.4%
FCF Margin-7.1%
True FCF Margin-9.1%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion—
Accrual Ratio−3.3%
SBC % of FCF—
SBC % of Rev1.9%
Reinvest. Rate—
Sales Growth Y/Y+140.9%
Sales 3Y CAGR+54.1%
EPS Growth Y/Y−448.4%
FCF Growth Y/Y−575.5%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+74.2%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$2.0B
Gross Profit (FY)$500.6M
Oper. Income (FY)$-311.0M
GAAP Net Income$-265.1M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-179.3M
Cash & Equiv$377.3M
Total Debt$757.5M
Net Cash (Debt)$-380.2M
Net Cash % MCap−6.6%
Debt / FCF (yrs)—
Current Ratio4.3050.82M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−24.32%
Perf Month−26.49%
Perf Quarter−45.33%
Perf Half Y−39.30%
Perf YTD−48.24%
SMA 20 Dist−16.89%$122.82
SMA 50 Dist−26.21%$138.33
SMA 100 Dist−31.57%$149.17
Window High−52.39%$214.39
Window Low0.00%$102.08
RSI (14) · Vol27.167%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AVAV revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.5B ($74.7 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$127.7M ($6.5 / $100)
SG&A & Other OpEx$684.0M ($34.6 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$-265.1M ($0.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)
GAAP Net Income$-265.1M (-13.4% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-78.4M(-4.0% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$62.5M(3.2% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-140.9M(-7.1% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$38.3M
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-179.3M(-9.1% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
| Line Item (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | YoY Δ | 4Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||
| Revenue | $445.7M | $540.5M | $716.7M | $820.6M | $2.0B | +140.9% | +45.1% | |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | $304.5M | $367.0M | $432.8M | $502.0M | $1.5B | +194.1% | +48.4% | |
| Gross Profit | $141.2M | $173.5M | $283.9M | $318.6M | $500.6M | +57.1% | +37.2% | |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $54.7M | $64.3M | $97.7M | $100.7M | $127.7M | +26.8% | +23.6% | |
| Selling, General & Admin (SG&A) | $96.4M | $131.9M | $114.4M | $158.8M | $443.3M | +179.2% | +46.4% | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $151.1M | $352.2M | $212.1M | $277.8M | $811.6M | +192.1% | +52.2% | |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-9.9M | $-178.7M | $71.8M | $40.8M | $-311.0M | −862.3% | — | |
| Income Tax Expense | $-10.4M | $-14.7M | $1.9M | $882,000 | $-23.1M | −2714.4% | — | |
| GAAP Net Income | $-4.2M | $-176.2M | $59.7M | $43.6M | $-265.1M | −707.8% | — | |
| Diluted EPS | $-0.17 | $-7.04 | $2.18 | $1.55 | $-5.40 | −448.4% | — | |
| Diluted Shares | 24.7M | 25.0M | 27.3M | 28.2M | 49.1M | +74.2% | +18.7% | |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents | $77.2M | $132.9M | $73.3M | $40.9M | $377.3M | +823.4% | +48.7% | |
| Inventory | $90.6M | $138.8M | $150.2M | $144.1M | $312.9M | +117.1% | +36.3% | |
| Total Current Assets | $368.9M | $477.0M | $515.6M | $606.5M | $1.9B | +211.7% | +50.5% | |
| Total Assets | $914.2M | $824.6M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $5.7B | +410.2% | +58.1% | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $101.4M | $121.3M | $144.9M | $172.2M | $439.2M | +155.1% | +44.3% | |
| Total Debt (Short + Long Term) | $200.0M | $142.5M | $38.0M | $40.0M | $757.5M | +1793.8% | +39.5% | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $608.2M | $551.0M | $822.7M | $886.5M | $4.4B | +396.4% | +64.0% | |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | $-122.8M | $-9.6M | $35.3M | $862,000 | $-380.2M | −44203.8% | — | |
| Invested Capital | $731.0M | $560.6M | $787.4M | $885.6M | $4.8B | +439.8% | +59.9% | |
| Cash Flow & Capital Allocation | ||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | $-9.6M | $11.4M | $15.3M | $-1.3M | $-78.4M | −5848.7% | — | |
| Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) | $60.8M | $100.0M | $35.7M | $41.0M | $265.0M | +546.5% | +44.5% | |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $5.4M | $10.8M | $17.1M | $21.5M | $38.3M | +78.6% | +63.3% | |
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | $22.3M | $14.9M | $23.0M | $19.5M | $62.5M | +220.0% | +29.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-31.9M | $-3.5M | $-7.7M | $-20.9M | $-140.9M | −575.5% | — | |
| True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash) | $-37.3M | $-14.2M | $-24.8M | $-42.3M | $-179.3M | −323.6% | — | |
| Share Repurchases (Buybacks) | — | — | — | — | $3.8M | — | — | |
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
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