Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG

NYSE · Retail-Eating Places · $44.5B

$35.40+0.57%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

🔒 Click to interact · scroll moves the page

CMG Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $35.401D +0.57%3M +10.14%SMA20 $30.58SMA50 $32.81RSI(14) 69.5

35.40

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 69.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$44.5B

EV / True FCF33.3x

Revenue$11.9B +5.4%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.3B −4.2%

Rule of 4017.5%

ROIC60.5%

True FCF Yield3.0%

EPS, diluted$1.14 +2.7%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$44.5B

Enterprise Value$44.2B

EV / True FCF33.25

EV / FCF30.50

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT22.81

EV / Sales3.70

P / E (GAAP)29.00

P / FCF30.77

P / Oper. CF21.07

P / Book15.74

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield3.0%

FCF Yield3.2%

Owner Earn. Yield2.5%

Earnings Yield3.4%

Shareholder Yield+5.2%

Buyback Yield5.4%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh$1.14

EPS (diluted)$1.14

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4017.5%

ROIC60.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)59.2%

GP / Assets—

ROE54.3%

ROA17.1%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin16.2%

Net Margin12.9%

FCF Margin12.1%

True FCF Margin11.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion94%

Accrual Ratio−6.4%

SBC % of FCF8.3%

SBC % of Rev1.0%

Reinvest. Rate32%

Sales Growth Y/Y+5.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR+11.4%

EPS Growth Y/Y+2.7%

FCF Growth Y/Y−4.2%

FCF 3Y CAGR+19.7%

Share Change Y/Y−2.5%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$11.9B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$1.9B

GAAP Net Income$1.5B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.3B

Cash & Equiv$385.9M

Total Debt—

Net Cash (Debt)$385.9M

Net Cash % MCap+0.9%

Debt / FCF (yrs)0.0y

Current Ratio1.231.26B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+13.17%

Perf Month+15.05%

Perf Quarter+7.96%

Perf Half Y+6.40%

Perf YTD−1.20%

SMA 20 Dist+15.75%$30.58

SMA 50 Dist+7.88%$32.81

SMA 100 Dist+5.90%$33.43

Window High−8.10%$38.52

Window Low+28.63%$27.52

RSI (14) · Vol69.552%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of CMG revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$10.0B ($83.8 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$399.8M ($3.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.5B ($12.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.5B (12.9% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$2.1B(17.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$666.3M(5.6% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$1.4B(12.1% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$119.5M(8.3% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.3B(11.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$7.5B	$8.6B	$9.9B	$11.3B	$11.9B	+5.4%	+12.1%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$804.9M	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$1.9B	+1.0%	+24.5%
Income Tax Expense	$159.8M	$282.4M	$391.8M	$476.1M	$473.8M	−0.5%	+31.2%
GAAP Net Income	$653.0M	$899.0M	$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.5B	+0.1%	+23.8%
Diluted EPS	$22.90	$0.64	$0.89	$1.11	$1.14	+2.7%	−52.8%
Diluted Shares	28.5M	1.40B	1.39B	1.38B	1.34B	−2.5%	+162.0%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$846.2M	$409.0M	$586.2M	$778.4M	$385.9M	−50.4%	−17.8%
Inventory	$32.8M	$35.7M	$39.3M	$48.9M	$49.5M	+1.2%	+10.8%
Total Current Assets	$1.4B	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$1.5B	−17.6%	+1.5%
Total Assets	$6.7B	$6.9B	$8.0B	$9.2B	$9.0B	−2.3%	+7.8%
Total Current Liabilities	$873.7M	$921.9M	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.2B	+1.7%	+8.0%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	—	—
Total Liabilities	$4.4B	$4.6B	$5.0B	$5.5B	$6.2B	+11.1%	+9.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$2.3B	$2.4B	$3.1B	$3.7B	$2.8B	−22.6%	+5.4%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$846.2M	$409.0M	$586.2M	$778.4M	$385.9M	−50.4%	−17.8%
Invested Capital	$1.5B	$2.0B	$2.5B	$2.9B	$2.4B	−15.0%	+13.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.1B	+0.4%	+13.3%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$254.7M	$286.8M	$319.4M	$335.0M	$361.4M	+7.9%	+9.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$176.4M	$98.0M	$124.0M	$131.7M	$119.5M	−9.3%	−9.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$442.5M	$479.2M	$560.7M	$593.6M	$666.3M	+12.3%	+10.8%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$839.6M	$844.0M	$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.4B	−4.2%	+14.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$663.2M	$746.0M	$1.1B	$1.4B	$1.3B	−3.7%	+19.0%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$466.5M	$830.1M	$592.3M	$1.0B	$2.4B	+142.2%	+51.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what CMG did at the next close after each story

Oct 12

Starbucks rules out Chipotle deal after restaurant-sector speculation

Bloomberg Television · 3:27 PM ET

—

Oct 8

Starbucks explores potential $41.3 billion takeover of Chipotle

ZeroHedge · 11:25 AM ET

—

What happened · big days

12 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.85% from the one before, three times CMG’s median day (1.62%). On 2 of the 12, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.85%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCMGWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 12, 2025+5.07%
Before our storiesgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
1Nov 12, 2025+5.07%
Before our stories
+0.2% did not move with itDRI +2.4 · QSR +0.4 · MCD +0.0 · YUM −0.9
2 Nov 25, 2025+7.09%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
2Nov 25, 2025+7.09%
Before our stories
+2.5% did not move with itDRI +3.4 · QSR +3.0 · YUM +1.9 · MCD +1.8
3 Mar 18, 2026−5.14%
Before our storiesgroup −2.2%, did not move with it
3Mar 18, 2026−5.14%
Before our stories
−2.2% did not move with itMCD −3.2 · YUM −2.8 · DRI −1.6 · QSR −1.1
4 Jun 22, 2026−6.00%
Nothing on CMGgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
4Jun 22, 2026−6.00%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itMCD −3.0 · QSR −2.2 · YUM −0.8 · DRI −0.7
5 Jul 15, 2026−4.94%
Nothing on CMGgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
5Jul 15, 2026−4.94%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.0% did not move with itYUM −3.5 · MCD −1.5 · QSR −0.6 · DRI +0.2
6 Jul 30, 2026+12.50%
Resultsgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
6Jul 30, 2026+12.50%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 29 results filing
−1.3% did not move with itYUM +3.3 · MCD −1.1 · QSR −1.6 · DRI −2.5
7 Aug 4, 2026−9.72%
Nothing on CMGgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
7Aug 4, 2026−9.72%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.2% did not move with itDRI −0.8 · YUM −0.8 · MCD +1.2 · QSR +1.3
8 Sep 15, 2026−5.94%
Nothing on CMGgroup −4.0%, moved with CMG
8Sep 15, 2026−5.94%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with CMGDRI −4.3 · QSR −4.3 · YUM −3.8 · MCD −1.8
9 Oct 8, 2026+6.21%
Nothing on CMGgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
9Oct 8, 2026+6.21%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% did not move with itMCD +2.6 · YUM +1.9 · QSR +1.8 · DRI −0.5
10 Oct 21, 2026−5.16%
Nothing on CMGgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
10Oct 21, 2026−5.16%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.8% did not move with itDRI −1.6 · QSR −1.3 · YUM −0.2 · MCD −0.1
11 Oct 29, 2026+8.88%
Resultsgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
11Oct 29, 2026+8.88%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 28 results filing
+2.3% did not move with itYUM +2.9 · MCD +2.8 · DRI +1.8 · QSR −2.0
12 Nov 4, 2026+5.83%
Nothing on CMGgroup +5.7%, moved with CMG
12Nov 4, 2026+5.83%
Nothing on CMGNo CMG story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.7% moved with CMGMCD +6.5 · YUM +5.9 · QSR +5.5 · DRI +5.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MCD, YUM, QSR and DRI that day, the largest companies in CMG’s SEC industry; “moved with CMG” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). CMG reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 29, 2025

day 1−18.18%day 6−23.14%

Reported Feb 3, 2026

day 1+1.94%day 6−4.98%

Reported Apr 29, 2026

day 1+3.03%day 6+0.85%

Reported Jul 29, 2026

day 1+12.50%day 6−1.55%

Next report: expected late January to early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 28 report: +22.52%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is CMG’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

CMG against four restaurant peers, a year at 100

CMG is up 15.1% in a year. Darden Restaurants is up 29.5% and Restaurant Brands International 15.7%. Of these four, YUM Brands (+11.5%) and McDonald’s (−6.5%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

CMG +15.1%. Darden Restaurants +29.5%, Restaurant Brands International +15.7%, YUM Brands +11.5%, McDonald’s −6.5%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in CMG’s SEC industry (Retail-Eating Places) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MCD	McDonald’s	$198.3B	−0.78%
YUM	YUM Brands	$45.4B	−0.13%
QSR	Restaurant Brands International	$35.8B	+0.22%
DRI	Darden Restaurants	$26.3B	−0.84%
YUMC	Yum China	$17.0B	+0.18%
ARMK	Aramark	$13.8B	−3.88%
TXRH	Texas Roadhouse	$12.9B	−2.37%
EAT	Brinker International	$9.2B	−3.53%