McDonald’s MCD

NYSE · Retail-Eating Places · $198.3B

$278.04−0.78%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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MCD Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $278.041D −0.78%3M +1.58%SMA20 $251.01SMA50 $248.44RSI(14) 75.8

278.04

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 75.8

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$198.3B

EV / True FCF33.9x

Revenue$26.9B +3.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$7.0B +7.7%

Rule of 4030.4%

ROIC25.5%

True FCF Yield3.5%

EPS, diluted$11.95 +4.9%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$198.3B

Enterprise Value$238.2B

EV / True FCF33.93

EV / FCF33.15

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT19.22

EV / Sales8.86

P / E (GAAP)23.16

P / FCF27.59

P / Oper. CF18.79

P / Book—

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield3.5%

FCF Yield3.6%

Owner Earn. Yield2.8%

Earnings Yield4.3%

Shareholder Yield+3.5%

Buyback Yield1.0%

Dividend Yield2.58%

Dividend / sh$7.17

Payout Ratio60%

FCF / sh$10.15

EPS (diluted)$11.95

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4030.4%

ROIC25.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)18.8%

GP / Assets—

ROE-478.1%

ROA14.4%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin46.1%

Net Margin31.9%

FCF Margin26.7%

True FCF Margin26.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion84%

Accrual Ratio−3.3%

SBC % of FCF2.3%

SBC % of Rev0.6%

Reinvest. Rate32%

Sales Growth Y/Y+3.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.1%

EPS Growth Y/Y+4.9%

FCF Growth Y/Y+7.7%

FCF 3Y CAGR+9.4%

Share Change Y/Y−0.8%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$26.9B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$12.4B

GAAP Net Income$8.6B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$7.0B

Cash & Equiv$774.0M

Total Debt$40.7B

Net Cash (Debt)$-39.9B

Net Cash % MCap−20.1%

Debt / FCF (yrs)5.7y

Current Ratio0.95707.64M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+8.03%

Perf Month+20.43%

Perf Quarter+1.30%

Perf Half Y−2.00%

Perf YTD−9.42%

SMA 20 Dist+10.77%$251.01

SMA 50 Dist+11.91%$248.44

SMA 100 Dist+6.94%$260.00

Window High−9.42%$306.94

Window Low+20.43%$230.88

RSI (14) · Vol75.829%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MCD revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$14.5B ($53.9 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$3.8B ($14.2 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$8.6B ($31.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$8.6B (31.9% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$10.6B(39.2% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.4B(12.5% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$7.2B(26.7% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$165.0M(2.3% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$7.0B(26.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$23.2B	$23.2B	$25.5B	$25.9B	$26.9B	+3.7%	+3.7%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	—	$2.9B	$2.8B	$2.9B	$3.0B	+6.3%	+2.0%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$10.4B	$9.4B	$11.6B	$11.7B	$12.4B	+5.8%	+4.6%
Interest Expense	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.6B	+5.0%	+7.5%
Income Tax Expense	$1.6B	$1.6B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.3B	+10.0%	+10.2%
GAAP Net Income	$7.5B	$6.2B	$8.5B	$8.2B	$8.6B	+4.1%	+3.2%
Diluted EPS	$10.04	$8.33	$11.56	$11.39	$11.95	+4.9%	+4.5%
Diluted Shares	751.8	741.3	732.3	721.9	716.4	−0.8%	−1.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$4.7B	$2.6B	$4.6B	$1.1B	$774.0M	−28.7%	−36.3%
Inventory	$55.6M	$52.0M	$53.0M	$56.0M	$61.0M	+8.9%	+2.3%
Total Current Assets	$7.1B	$5.4B	$8.0B	$4.6B	$4.2B	−9.5%	−12.6%
Total Assets	$53.9B	$50.4B	$56.1B	$55.2B	$59.5B	+7.9%	+2.5%
Total Current Liabilities	$4.0B	$3.8B	$6.9B	$3.9B	$4.4B	+13.0%	+2.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$35.6B	$35.9B	$41.5B	$38.4B	$40.7B	+5.9%	+3.4%
Stockholders' Equity	$-4.6B	$-6.0B	$-4.7B	$-3.8B	$-1.8B	+52.8%	—
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-30.9B	$-33.3B	$-37.0B	$-37.3B	$-39.9B	−6.9%	—
Invested Capital	$26.3B	$27.3B	$32.3B	$33.5B	$38.1B	+13.7%	+9.7%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$9.1B	$7.4B	$9.6B	$9.4B	$10.6B	+11.7%	+3.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$329.7M	$370.0M	$382.0M	$447.0M	$457.0M	+2.2%	+8.5%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$139.2M	$167.0M	$175.0M	$172.0M	$165.0M	−4.1%	+4.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$2.0B	$1.9B	$2.4B	$2.8B	$3.4B	+21.3%	+13.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$7.1B	$5.5B	$7.3B	$6.7B	$7.2B	+7.7%	+0.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$7.0B	$5.3B	$7.1B	$6.5B	$7.0B	+8.0%	+0.2%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$845.5M	$3.9B	$3.1B	$2.8B	$2.1B	−27.2%	+24.9%
Dividends Paid	$3.9B	$4.2B	$4.5B	$4.9B	$5.1B	+5.0%	+6.9%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MCD did at the next close after each story

Sep 23

McDonald’s Plans $8.5 Billion in Franchisee Support Under New Growth Strategy

Yahoo Finance · 8:05 AM ET

−4.81%

What happened · big days

22 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.29% from the one before, three times MCD’s median day (0.76%). On 12 of the 22, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.29%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayMCDWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 6, 2025−2.38%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, moved with MCD
1Nov 6, 2025−2.38%
Before our stories
−1.3% moved with MCDCMG −4.4 · DRI −1.4 · YUM −1.2 · QSR +1.7
2 Nov 11, 2025+2.58%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
2Nov 11, 2025+2.58%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itYUM +1.7 · QSR −0.4 · DRI −1.1 · CMG −2.2
3 Dec 1, 2025−2.65%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, moved with MCD
3Dec 1, 2025−2.65%
Before our stories
−1.4% moved with MCDDRI −3.1 · YUM −1.7 · QSR −1.1 · CMG −0.8
4 Dec 3, 2025+2.32%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
4Dec 3, 2025+2.32%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itDRI +1.5 · QSR +0.9 · YUM +0.6 · CMG −0.6
5 Feb 12, 2026+2.74%
Resultsgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
5Feb 12, 2026+2.74%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 11 results filing
−1.8% did not move with itYUM +2.6 · DRI +0.0 · CMG −3.7 · QSR −6.2
6 Mar 18, 2026−3.24%
Before our storiesgroup −2.2%, moved with MCD
6Mar 18, 2026−3.24%
Before our stories
−2.2% moved with MCDCMG −5.1 · YUM −2.8 · DRI −1.6 · QSR −1.1
7 Apr 27, 2026−3.06%
Before our storiesgroup −2.1%, moved with MCD
7Apr 27, 2026−3.06%
Before our stories
−2.1% moved with MCDYUM −3.2 · QSR −2.5 · CMG −1.7 · DRI −1.2
8 May 1, 2026−2.37%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, moved with MCD
8May 1, 2026−2.37%
Before our stories
−1.9% moved with MCDCMG −3.0 · DRI −2.9 · YUM −0.8 · QSR −0.8
9 May 8, 2026−2.80%
Before our storiesgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
9May 8, 2026−2.80%
Before our stories
−0.9% did not move with itYUM −3.4 · CMG −2.3 · DRI +0.5 · QSR +0.7
10 Jun 5, 2026+2.61%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, moved with MCD
10Jun 5, 2026+2.61%
Before our stories
+2.1% moved with MCDCMG +4.1 · DRI +2.4 · YUM +1.9 · QSR +1.2
11 Jun 22, 2026−3.05%
Nothing on MCDgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
11Jun 22, 2026−3.05%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itCMG −6.0 · QSR −2.2 · YUM −0.8 · DRI −0.7
12 Jun 25, 2026−3.41%
Nothing on MCDgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
12Jun 25, 2026−3.41%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.2% did not move with itYUM −1.2 · DRI −0.3 · QSR +0.7 · CMG +1.9
13 Jul 2, 2026+4.16%
Nothing on MCDgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
13Jul 2, 2026+4.16%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.6% did not move with itQSR +4.7 · YUM +1.9 · DRI +1.2 · CMG +1.1
14 Jul 16, 2026+3.21%
Nothing on MCDgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
14Jul 16, 2026+3.21%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itQSR +4.0 · DRI +2.6 · YUM −0.3 · CMG −1.2
15 Aug 17, 2026−2.68%
Nothing on MCDgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
15Aug 17, 2026−2.68%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itYUM −2.0 · QSR −0.6 · DRI +0.1 · CMG +0.8
16 Aug 27, 2026−2.57%
Nothing on MCDgroup −1.9%, moved with MCD
16Aug 27, 2026−2.57%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% moved with MCDDRI −3.5 · YUM −2.4 · QSR −1.5 · CMG −0.3
17 Sep 23, 2026−4.81%
1 storygroup +0.2%, did not move with it
17Sep 23, 2026−4.81%
1 story “McDonald’s Plans $8.5 Billion in Franchisee Support Under New Growth Strategy” · Yahoo Finance
+0.2% did not move with itQSR −0.3 · DRI +0.1 · CMG +0.3 · YUM +0.7
18 Oct 8, 2026+2.61%
Nothing on MCDgroup +1.8%, moved with MCD
18Oct 8, 2026+2.61%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% moved with MCDCMG +6.2 · YUM +1.9 · QSR +1.8 · DRI −0.5
19 Oct 22, 2026+2.59%
Nothing on MCDgroup +1.8%, moved with MCD
19Oct 22, 2026+2.59%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% moved with MCDQSR +3.0 · YUM +2.1 · DRI +1.4 · CMG +0.1
20 Oct 29, 2026+2.75%
Nothing on MCDgroup +2.4%, moved with MCD
20Oct 29, 2026+2.75%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.4% moved with MCDCMG +8.9 · YUM +2.9 · DRI +1.8 · QSR −2.0
21 Nov 2, 2026+2.91%
Nothing on MCDgroup +2.3%, moved with MCD
21Nov 2, 2026+2.91%
Nothing on MCDNo MCD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.3% moved with MCDCMG +3.2 · QSR +3.1 · YUM +1.4 · DRI +1.2
22 Nov 4, 2026+6.53%
Resultsgroup +5.7%, moved with MCD
22Nov 4, 2026+6.53%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
+5.7% moved with MCDYUM +5.9 · CMG +5.8 · QSR +5.5 · DRI +5.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of YUM, CMG, QSR and DRI that day, the largest companies in MCD’s SEC industry; “moved with MCD” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). Day 1 is the first close after each filing: the next day’s for a filing after the close, the same day’s otherwise. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 5, 2025

day 1+2.16%day 6+2.58%

Reported Feb 11, 2026

day 1+2.74%day 6+1.86%

Reported May 7, 2026

day 1−0.14%day 6−3.21%

Reported Aug 4, 2026

day 1+1.17%day 6+3.36%

Next report: expected early-to-mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 4 report: +5.70%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is MCD’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

MCD against four restaurant peers, a year at 100

MCD is down 7.2% in a year. Darden Restaurants is up 28.4%, Restaurant Brands International 16.0%, Chipotle Mexican Grill 15.7% and YUM Brands 11.4%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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MCD −7.2%. Darden Restaurants +28.4%, Restaurant Brands International +16.0%, Chipotle Mexican Grill +15.7%, YUM Brands +11.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MCD’s SEC industry (Retail-Eating Places) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

YUM	YUM Brands	$45.4B	−0.13%
CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill	$44.5B	+0.57%
QSR	Restaurant Brands International	$35.8B	+0.22%
DRI	Darden Restaurants	$26.3B	−0.84%
YUMC	Yum China	$17.0B	+0.18%
ARMK	Aramark	$13.8B	−3.88%
TXRH	Texas Roadhouse	$12.9B	−2.37%
EAT	Brinker International	$9.2B	−3.53%