Cheesecake Factory CAKE

Nasdaq · Retail-Eating Places · $5.7B

$110.71−4.06%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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CAKE Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $110.711D −4.06%3M −0.43%SMA20 $112.07SMA50 $107.87RSI(14) 50.5

110.71

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 50.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$5.7B

EV / True FCF48.1x

Revenue$3.8B +4.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$127.8M +43.6%

Rule of 408.8%

ROIC20.1%

True FCF Yield2.2%

EPS, diluted$3.06 −4.4%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$5.7B

Enterprise Value$6.2B

EV / True FCF48.15

EV / FCF39.70

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT32.87

EV / Sales1.64

P / E (GAAP)38.80

P / FCF37.03

P / Oper. CF19.06

P / Book13.16

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield2.2%

FCF Yield2.7%

Owner Earn. Yield1.5%

Earnings Yield2.6%

Shareholder Yield+3.1%

Buyback Yield2.7%

Dividend Yield0.98%

Dividend / sh$1.08

Payout Ratio35%

FCF / sh$3.11

EPS (diluted)$3.06

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 408.8%

ROIC20.1%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)18.2%

GP / Assets—

ROE33.9%

ROA4.5%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin5.0%

Net Margin3.9%

FCF Margin4.1%

True FCF Margin3.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion105%

Accrual Ratio−4.7%

SBC % of FCF17.6%

SBC % of Rev0.7%

Reinvest. Rate49%

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+4.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y−4.4%

FCF Growth Y/Y+43.6%

FCF 3Y CAGR+46.4%

Share Change Y/Y−0.9%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$3.8B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$187.3M

GAAP Net Income$148.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$127.8M

Cash & Equiv$215.7M

Total Debt$630.1M

Net Cash (Debt)$-414.3M

Net Cash % MCap−7.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)4.1y

Current Ratio0.5949.86M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−2.13%

Perf Month+3.48%

Perf Quarter+3.42%

Perf Half Y+82.09%

Perf YTD+78.16%

SMA 20 Dist−1.21%$112.07

SMA 50 Dist+2.63%$107.87

SMA 100 Dist+10.46%$100.23

Window High−5.61%$117.29

Window Low+95.84%$56.53

RSI (14) · Vol50.544%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of CAKE revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$653.1M ($17.4 / $100)

Operating Expenses$2.9B ($77.6 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$39.3M ($1.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$148.0M ($3.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$148.0M (3.9% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$301.3M(8.0% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$146.2M(3.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$155.1M(4.1% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$27.2M(17.6% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$127.8M(3.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2023	FY2024	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$2.9B	$3.3B	$3.4B	$3.6B	$3.8B	+4.7%	+6.4%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$653.1M	—	—	—	$653.1M	—	+0.0%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$82.3M	$38.9M	$108.6M	$178.3M	$187.3M	+5.0%	+22.8%
Interest Expense	—	—	—	—	$4.9M	—	—
Income Tax Expense	$-753,000	$-10.2M	$-1.3M	$14.3M	$14.5M	+1.4%	—
GAAP Net Income	$72.0M	$43.0M	$101.0M	$157.0M	$148.0M	−5.7%	+19.7%
Diluted EPS	$1.01	$0.86	$2.07	$3.20	$3.06	−4.4%	+31.9%
Diluted Shares	48.5M	50.4M	49.0M	49.0M	48.6M	−0.9%	+0.0%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$189.6M	$114.8M	$56.3M	$84.2M	$215.7M	+156.3%	+3.3%
Inventory	$42.8M	$55.6M	$57.7M	$64.5M	$54.0M	−16.4%	+5.9%
Total Current Assets	$405.6M	$345.8M	$300.8M	$333.3M	$454.8M	+36.5%	+2.9%
Total Assets	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.3B	+7.2%	+3.9%
Total Current Liabilities	$636.3M	$656.7M	$660.7M	$711.4M	$777.0M	+9.2%	+5.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$1.0B	$1.0B	$1.0B	$1.0B	$630.1M	−38.0%	−11.6%
Total Liabilities	$2.9B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.6B	$2.8B	+8.7%	−0.4%
Stockholders' Equity	$330.2M	$292.0M	$318.1M	$443.5M	$436.4M	−1.6%	+7.2%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-840.1M	$-917.0M	$-977.5M	$-931.6M	$-414.3M	+55.5%	—
Invested Capital	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$850.8M	−38.1%	−7.7%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$213.0M	$161.9M	$218.4M	$268.3M	$301.3M	+12.3%	+9.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$89.7M	$92.4M	$93.1M	$101.5M	$109.0M	+7.5%	+5.0%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$23.0M	$24.4M	$25.8M	$30.0M	$27.2M	−9.1%	+4.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$66.9M	$112.5M	$151.6M	$160.4M	$146.2M	−8.8%	+21.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$146.1M	$49.5M	$66.8M	$108.0M	$155.1M	+43.6%	+1.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$123.1M	$25.0M	$41.1M	$78.0M	$127.8M	+63.9%	+1.0%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$5.8M	$63.1M	$46.1M	$18.2M	$153.9M	+744.3%	+127.3%
Dividends Paid	$337,000	$42.3M	$53.2M	$53.0M	$52.2M	−1.6%	+252.8%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what CAKE did at the next close after each story

Oct 27

Cheesecake Factory cites record Q3 volumes and a $5B growth runway

Investing.com · 6:28 PM ET

−2.53%

What happened · big days

17 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.45% from the one before, three times CAKE’s median day (1.48%). On 3 of the 17, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.45%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCAKEWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 21, 2025+5.24%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, moved with CAKE
1Nov 21, 2025+5.24%
Before our stories
+3.1% moved with CAKECMG +4.2 · QSR +3.7 · YUM +2.5 · MCD +1.7
2 Jan 2, 2026+4.62%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
2Jan 2, 2026+4.62%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itCMG +1.3 · YUM −0.5 · QSR −0.6 · MCD −0.8
3 Feb 10, 2026−4.60%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
3Feb 10, 2026−4.60%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itCMG −2.9 · QSR −1.0 · YUM −0.0 · MCD +0.1
4 Feb 12, 2026−4.68%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
4Feb 12, 2026−4.68%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itQSR −6.2 · CMG −3.7 · YUM +2.6 · MCD +2.7
5 Feb 17, 2026+6.63%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
5Feb 17, 2026+6.63%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itCMG +4.3 · QSR +3.0 · YUM +0.4 · MCD +0.0
6 Mar 12, 2026−6.63%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
6Mar 12, 2026−6.63%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itCMG −3.8 · MCD −0.4 · QSR +0.1 · YUM +1.2
7 May 13, 2026−6.95%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
7May 13, 2026−6.95%
Before our stories
−1.9% did not move with itQSR −2.4 · YUM −2.0 · CMG −1.7 · MCD +0.3
8 May 26, 2026+5.71%
Before our storiesgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
8May 26, 2026+5.71%
Before our stories
−0.9% did not move with itQSR +0.1 · YUM −0.7 · MCD −1.1 · CMG −1.8
9 Jun 11, 2026+6.17%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
9Jun 11, 2026+6.17%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itCMG +2.7 · YUM +1.4 · QSR +1.0 · MCD +0.8
10 Jul 10, 2026+5.53%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
10Jul 10, 2026+5.53%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itCMG +1.9 · YUM +0.7 · QSR +0.4 · MCD −0.7
11 Jul 29, 2026+13.63%
Resultsgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
11Jul 29, 2026+13.63%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 28 results filing
+1.0% did not move with itCMG +2.2 · YUM +1.1 · QSR +0.9 · MCD −0.6
12 Aug 13, 2026−4.61%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
12Aug 13, 2026−4.61%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itMCD −1.3 · CMG −0.1 · YUM +0.3 · QSR +2.3
13 Aug 21, 2026+6.38%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
13Aug 21, 2026+6.38%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itCMG +4.6 · QSR +1.6 · MCD +0.7 · YUM +0.4
14 Aug 27, 2026−4.56%
Nothing on CAKEgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
14Aug 27, 2026−4.56%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.9% did not move with itMCD −2.6 · YUM −2.4 · QSR −1.5 · CMG −0.3
15 Sep 15, 2026−8.03%
Nothing on CAKEgroup −4.0%, moved with CAKE
15Sep 15, 2026−8.03%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with CAKECMG −5.9 · QSR −4.3 · YUM −3.8 · MCD −1.8
16 Oct 29, 2026+6.99%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
16Oct 29, 2026+6.99%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.8% did not move with itCMG +8.9 · YUM +2.9 · MCD +2.8 · QSR −2.0
17 Nov 4, 2026+4.69%
Nothing on CAKEgroup +5.9%, moved with CAKE
17Nov 4, 2026+4.69%
Nothing on CAKENo CAKE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.9% moved with CAKEMCD +6.5 · YUM +5.9 · CMG +5.8 · QSR +5.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MCD, YUM, CMG and QSR that day, the largest companies in CAKE’s SEC industry; “moved with CAKE” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). CAKE reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 1 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Feb 18, 2026

day 1−2.58%day 6+1.58%

Reported Apr 29, 2026

day 1+0.32%day 6−2.98%

Reported Jul 28, 2026

day 1+13.63%day 6+18.31%

Reported Oct 27, 2026

day 1−2.53%day 6+6.38%

Next report: expected late January to mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 27 report: +6.38%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is CAKE’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

CAKE against four restaurant peers, a year at 100

CAKE is up 2.4 times in a year. All four did less: Restaurant Brands International (+15.7%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (+15.1%), YUM Brands (+11.5%) and McDonald’s (−6.5%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 2.4-fold rise and a 6.5% fall both read honestly.

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CAKE ×2.4. Restaurant Brands International +15.7%, Chipotle Mexican Grill +15.1%, YUM Brands +11.5%, McDonald’s −6.5%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in CAKE’s SEC industry (Retail-Eating Places) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MCD	McDonald’s	$198.3B	−0.78%
YUM	YUM Brands	$45.4B	−0.13%
CMG	Chipotle Mexican Grill	$44.5B	+0.57%
QSR	Restaurant Brands International	$35.8B	+0.22%
DRI	Darden Restaurants	$26.3B	−0.84%
YUMC	Yum China	$17.0B	+0.18%
ARMK	Aramark	$13.8B	—
TXRH	Texas Roadhouse	$12.9B	—